A no-deal Brexit spells trouble for Emmanuel Macron

Ce n’est pas grave
C’est pas grave (in very informal speech)
The ne and the pas sandwich the verb, whatever it may be. Same goes for ne + jamais, ne+ aucun, etc

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@Hilary_Jane_Dunk

I have to say that I am quite impressed with your persistence but I do disagree with your underlying message.

The reality is on this subject bearing in mind you are speaking to people who have (or are about to) fully embrace the freedoms of movement that being within the eu offers.

It would be interesting to hear your views on other topics on this forum.

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Maxime , thanks for your good wishes, for Britain, post Brexit…(same to you, re France)…I would not be living here, if I could not say this…

I can’t say that I have been aware of the ‘French bashing’ you refer to, but there will always be a degree of sensitivity (often joked about now) because of our long shared history, eg occupation & conflict…& the 2 world wars…
I have some respect for Macron and the difficulty he is having to carry out some of his economic reforms…He is also (I agree), an opportunist who will for the sake of his own country, try to use the situation to strengthen France’s position…This jockeying for position is entirely natural and the main reason for the straight-jacket of ‘Ever closer Union’, being likely to fail , because it is unnatural & cumbersome…
A recent example from history…
" The split of Czechoslovakia on January 1, 1993 was not entirely inevitable, but the political and economic costs of keeping the country together would have been extremely high. Mutual historical grievances. The Slovaks did not embrace the concept of Czechoslovakism, which was advocated by Czech leaders after 1918."…

But Hilary Czechoslovakia didn’t exist pre-1918, even as a discrete entity within the Austro-Hungarian empire.

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Just on your economics:

The figures you quote on trade for 2017-19 are largely irrelevant, as this was after the collapse of the £ - unless you think the £ has a lot further to fall (! - in which case people in the UK won’t be able to afford any imports anyway!) - and, of course, brexiters advocate no tariffs on imports. So why should France’s exports suffer much from here on?

More to the point, the fall in £ has failed to boost UK exports - which the brexiters promised as compensation for higher prices at home - because, of course, they misdiagnosed the structural problems in UK business (which their neo-liberal ideology largely created in the first place).

The emptiness of the brexiters viewpoint has already been exposed by the fact that the UK has been met almost universally by other countries trying to extract more favourable terms than the UK already has through the EU - Japan being the best example, where it is not only extracting more favourable terms just because it can, but is in any case prevented by international law from offering anything commensurate with its EU deal - because there’s a clause in the EU deal saying precisely this!

But the big picture here is that the UK is leaving the biggest richest trading block in the world - in a world increasingly dominated by regional trading blocks. This will only increase further, because long-distance imports/exports will increasingly be constrained by environmental concerns. Whatever happens in the next few months or years, the UK will have to trade more not less with the EU, and therefore accept EU standards and practice anyway.

My guess is that beyond immediate disruption if there is no deal - which I can’t believe the UK Parliament will allow anyway - and taking into account the trade sectors involved - France’s future exports to the UK will be little affected. A bigger impact lies in the stockpiling that is now taking place on both sides of the channel - the specialist trade press is full of this - which is now boosting UK economic activity (and of course current trade with France), but the price of which will be paid in lower orders later - or no future orders for the UK at all, since many Continental firms are stockpiling while they find alternative suppliers within the EU, as indeed is the French government’s official advice to them. The UK can’t do this: its too small to have enough real alternative suppliers!

The French economy will also be boosted by business relocations from the UK - and here your other point that attempts to ‘woo City financial firms to Paris has been a flop’ is not accurate. What did you expect? Of course some have gone to other countries - everybody always knew they would, but France has done very well already with big international banks like HSBC and Bank of America, and with currency etc trading, and fintech - indeed new technology in general, not surprising since it far outstrips the UK in terms of innovation (France and Germany are 3rd and 4th in the world, after the much bigger economies of USA and Japan; the UK isn’t even in the top100!). But the real point here is that brexit still hasn’t actually happened, and still might not - and if it does, it’s economic effects will be over decades rather than months or years - I still read frequently about smaller UK businesses only just starting to think seriously about relocating.

So your economic sources don’t seem very good to me. Ah! Just seen they are from a Spectator article - say no more…

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Irrelevant when it came into existence…It’s is an example of an entity cobbled together from around 7 different cultural groups…which went through various incarnations and did not survive…

I’m happy to agree to disagree…

But never an actual country, Hilary. Never a self-determining state. So if I have understood you correctly, you are saying that Czechoslovakia not working as a country indicates the EU will not work as a union and then possibly a federation?
I don’t think it is a valid comparison to make, it would be like comparing the UK (and how do you feel about that, as cobbled together unions go?? Do you think the UK should split into its constituent parts?) and the hypothetical republic of Devon and Cornwall.

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I am not quite sure there was anything to disagree with!

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It has the problem, I think, of already being far too big and there being very large disparities between the economies as well as the individual cultures…
A lot of the brexiteers in the Uk would have preferred to have kept things as a loose association, just a trading mechanism, the ‘Common Market’ (many felt that we should have kept our close ties with our Commonwealth markets, like New Zealand) & as it as 'morphing from the EEC,…that the politicians (Heath etc…) should have given the country a referendum to decide whether to join the EU.


Anyway Vero, Let’s leave it at that shall we ? …All in the fullness of time will be revealed…

One final point that I missed…I have no problem with Scotland, Wales & N. Ireland going their own way, if that is what they want to do at some point in the near future…

So UK out of the EU is good, lonely little England is good, but you prefer to live in the EU.
?

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and foxtrot oscar to anyone else in the UK who would like to do the same…

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Are the people who are being rude about Brexit living in the UK or in France?

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Well Daryl that depends who you think is being rude? If I’m in that category I can confirm I live in France. Being polite - I’m appalled that any UK immigrant living in France could possibly have voted for Brexit. It’s completely beyond my comprehension and warrants as much rudeness as I can muster!

Does that help?

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Or you either.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and that opinion should be respected even if you disagree, it doesn’t have to be done in an offensive way; manners maketh man.

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Completely disagree Daryl - other people’s ‘opinions’ have adversely affected my life so I have not one iota of respect for those who made them. I hope that’s clear and no need to be so patronising.

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As of now Simon how have those who voted Leave affected your life so much that you think it okay to be rude or abusive and frankly what will you gain by doing so?

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