Despite Johnson’s bluster I still expect a trade deal to be done as ‘no deal’ merely creates losers of different proportions.
I’ll say one thing about your Brexit assessments, Tim, they’re always consistent, and l hope you’re right!
I don’t know - we’ve got to a position where no deal is all too likely a possibility.
I was amusing myself the other evening (NO! don’t even go there!!) and imagining the Boston Tea Party reincarnated at Calais by French fishermen
It’s a fine judgement at the moment - but I’m slightly inclined to Timothy’s assessment - mainly on the grounds that Johnson/Cummings caved at the last hour to the EU’s original WA proposal - the one May said no British Prime Minister could possibly agree to!
There will no doubt again be face-saving tweaks, and probably - again - regrets afterwards, but on (slight) balance I think they’ll cave.
The drivers there were completely different - and one might well argue that Johnson made that agreement in bad faith right from the start.
It is not clear that Johnson can accept a deal given the pressure from the extremists not only not to do a deal but to renege on the whole of the withdrawal agreement, it is not clear that the EU can make a deal where it is almost certain we will not honour our side of it.
In truth deal & no-deal are not so very different for trade on Jan 2nd but they do differ in terms of the repair of the relationship down the line - it is entirely possible, however, that relationship is too damaged to sustain a deal in the immediate term.
“Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market”. Daniel Hannan, 12/5/15. “The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want”. Michael Gove, 9/4/16.
“British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; and buy homes and settle down. There will continue to be free trade and access to the single market”. Boris Johnson, 26/6/16. “Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy - the UK holds most of the cards”. John Redwood, 17/7/16. “There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside”. David Davis, 10/10/16.
“The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history”. Liam Fox, 20/7/17.
“Most of the EU states are very sympathetic to our view”. David Davis, 15/5/17.
“I believe that we can get a free trade and customs agreement concluded before March 2019”. David Davis, 18/1/17.
“Within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, and therefore before anything material has changed, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU … The new trade agreements will come into force at the point of exit, but they will be fully negotiated”. David Davis, 14/7/16.
“There is no plan for no deal, because we’re going to get a great deal”. Boris Johnson, 11/7/17.
“But we didn’t vote to leave without a deal. That wasn’t the message of the campaign I helped lead. During that campaign, we said we should do a deal with the EU and be part of the network of free trade deals that covers all Europe, from Iceland to Turkey. Leaving without a deal on March 29 would not honour that commitment. It would undoubtedly cause economic turbulence.” Michael Gove, 3/3/19.
“I’ve looked carefully at ‘no deal’. That outcome would be a failure of statecraft”, Boris Johnson, 9/9/19.
“I can indeed assure the hon. Lady that there will be no crashing out, because we will negotiate a great new friendship and partnership within the timescale. I know that hon. Members on both sides of the House have every confidence in the Government to do that. " Boris Johnson, 22/10/19.
“We have an ‘oven ready’ deal, let’s put it in the microwave, as soon as we get back after the election on 12 December.” Boris Johnson, 31/10/19.
Gold Star for you for this sordid compilation, Carl!
Careful Jane, you’re giving toads a bad name there
My goodness, lying feckers
But we have a fantastic “Australian” style deal! Which as far as I can see means the whole thing is upside down
All the toads with whom I’ve had the pleasure of acquaintanceship have been as honest as a golden guinea. Doubtless there are dishonorable exceptions, but as a whole they are paragons of knobbly warm-blooded integrity.
And handsome with it. Croak.
Not sure I agree with the final sentence however the closest I ever came to a toad was when I was involved in a cane toad race on a Whitsunday’s island. My fantastic (ugly) toad came first and I won a day trip out to the outter Barrier Reef - magic - thanks Mr Toad (I even have a pic of my holding said toad somewhere )
thinks… where on earth could one hold a toad which would be legal decent and honest and not cause widespread alarm
Not sure really - it was very gross - not sure if you have ever seen a Cane toad - they are HUGE. I was wearing pink rubber washing up gloves if that helps with legality We had them when living in Queensland - awful things!!!
They have no business being in Australia, have they? A major pest I thought. Don’t they originally come from the southern US?
Toads have right to seek a better life, surely?
Their flourishing down under suggests that the antipodes are well suited to their needs and aspirations. Croak.
I think they eat baby birds of ground dwelling species and anything they can catch in fact - major pest. I think they were introduced to Australia deliberately to wipe out some pest but failed at that and became a bigger pest themselves.
They are an ENOURMOUS problem! They were originally imported for some sort of pest on cane sugar which was (and is) a huge industry in Queensland. Sadly said bugs lived on the top of the cane sugar (2m??) and the toads on the ground now there is a decision the likes that BJ would make It was horrid at night, you had to be careful going out to get washing for fear of treading on one, watch your toddler (they have some poison on thier skin if licked). Lots of Queenslanders have all sorts of methods of getting rid of them, put it this way a lot of people who dont’ play golf have a club or 2!