Brexit vote cancelled?

I don’t think that it necessarily follows that a Conservative MP who would have voted in favour of the proposed Withdrawal Agreement would do so out of support for Theresa May.
There are those who would vote ‘Aye’ out of party loyalty, those that think the proposed agreement is actually a good idea, and those who would vote in favour because they fear the alternatives.
Therefore it is quite possible for both the 200 and 159 numbers to co-exist at the same time.

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Agree but I think even if 48 letters are sent it will be hard to muster 1581, even now, because all the obvious alternatives to May are worse and even the Tories see this - and I still think that many of the 200 will support May.

We’ll see.

I’m not terribly good with predictions though - I thought she’d lose the vote on the deal, merely kicking it down the road wasn’t a strategy that occurred to me so I’m quite likely to be wrong about this one as well.

1] Slight correction - I thought there were 316 Tory MPs - there are only 315 so just 158 votes needed.

So, the vote has been triggered which clearly makes it a lot more likely May will be ousted :thinking:

I still think the “Party Faithful” might well back her - there isn’t an obvious successor who will not split the Tories further.

A confidence vote is a distraction but if May wins only for a short time.

A leadership election will mean we fall out of the EU with no deal.

Well yes it’s now all up in the air! A leadership challenge I’m not convinced she will win. Be good to know how many letters have been submitted. But I would not now rule out Corbyn piling in with a vote of no confidence in the Government. Which could bring the country to the brink of political collapse. You really could not make it up!

I think it is clear Brexit can not happen on 29th March now!

Brexit can still happen in March but if she loses tonight then the spectre of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit becomes greater, time for JC to grow a pair methinks.

Interestingly I am not convinced she will lose - even the Tories must recognise that a leadership election now is the last thing the country needs.

There was some speculation that if it does come to a leadership contest that they would try to get it through as quickly as possible. I suppose one way would be for “deals in smoke filled room” and for only two candidates to put their names forward which would eliminate the MP’s vote, or even a single candidate obviating the need for any vote at all. However, as there is no obvious successor there are too many who want to throw their hat into the ring - I can see it being a draw out fight, even if the party wants it over quickly.

As long as the Tory party has this extreme right wing faction, the tail is wagging the dog.
It is time for them to go.
I will never again vote Tory as long as they are a danger to One Nation Tories and I will be e-mailing the Conservatives to tell them just that.
If you agree with me, perhaps you would like to do the same?

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Yes, but for the fact that means a Labour government who have even less of a clue.

Proud to say I have never voted Tory. Although I don’t think we have a credible political party left in the UK.

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Sadly I agree

I think it would help if the EU came out and said that the withdrawal agreement could or could not be re-negotiated if there was a change of government.

Naturally most people here are concerned about what will or could happen to the UK. However and away from the British, I get the impression that other Europeans are feeling it is a done deal anyway, and getting on with it with little if any concern.
Te growth of extreme Nationalism is more of a concern to the international press I review. Whilst this can be applied to the UKIP voters (now Conservative?) I don’t see the rabid Nationalism in the UK that can be seen in places like Poland and Hungary within the EU, and many other places outside of it.
However I am feeling that after some adjustment the EU will be a more cohesive place without the UK, and maybe recognising that no matter what happens, in or out, roughly 50% of the British will be against it
Hard to see that as being a pleasing prospect for the EU?

They have said “not unless the red lines change” - it doesn’t matter who leads the show.

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That’s pretty much my reading of it as well.

So then ---- Treacherous Theresa has survived for the time being having promised to step down before the next election.
So now she continues to promote a deal which she knows Parliament will not accept.
Clearly this takes us to a position where the only choice then left to Parliament is to leave the EU without a deal, or to not leave the EU at all.
Now I wonder which of those two options the PM will prefer ?
Personally I think it’s all part of the grand plan to remain in the EU at all costs, even if it is by means of dressing things up with different names, and is therefore a fundamental betrayal of the democratic process. Of course that couldn’t possibly be a strategy borrowed from the EU itself could it ? One remembers the strategy of the EU in regard to certain referendums in other countries in the past in relation to the proposed EU Constitution ------ if the result is not convenient then keep holding votes until such time as you get the ‘right’ answer.
Sadly it seems that our politicians at Westminster have no regard whatsoever for the best interests of the people or the country as a whole, the only interest that concerns them is self-interest !

I am pleased Theresa May is continuing in her role as I think it is the most likely leader to result in a further referendum which can hopefully reverse the prior referendum.

But surely all the economic figures show that staying in is by far the best result for Britain and her people. A PM who manages to secure that position is serving the interests of the population extremely well.

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IF one’s only concern is monetary, then you are right David. However, there are those of us who are prepared to pay a monetary price to maintain the independence and national sovereignty of our country, rather than to sell it to the EU for a few pieces of silver.

This is just meaningless posturing of the sort engaged in by insular populists.

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