Brexit Vote, what next!

Of course there could be a number of tables amendments that could screw this up for her

Either way Brexit is not going away. A TM win will need a short extension but then we face negotiations for the future trading relationship - and no-one expects those to be easy or to be concluded quickly.

Maybe they won’t be so newsworthy giving the impression that Brexit has “gone away” but the reality will be different.

I quite like the idea of essentially replacing the transition with an extension, 4 years might not be a bad starting point but we could do with the EU dropping it’s red line of “no trade deal negotiation until you have left”.

But the UK needs to accept that a hard Brexit and meeting its obligations to the Irish peace process are incompatible - and it needs to recognise the harm that pandering to populism and to the extreme Brexiteers has done.

I hate to say it but the first thing to do with an extension period is for TM to stand down, the Tories to elect a new leader and for a general election - TM essentially has no authority left to continue negotiations with the EU, neither her party, nor the public support her any more.

Would not put it passed a few of them Brian.

There are a number of amendments kicking around that would tie-in approval of TM’s deal with a second vote.

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I thought a second vote had been out-voted last evening ?

The decision was not in favour of a further referendum last night.

Next week, who knows.

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Just like MV’s the motion could be put again at any time.

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Interesting Paddy Power the bookies going, House of commons to pass the withdrawal agreement before 30/3.
No 2/5 yes 7/4
Apologies for keep mentioning how the bookies are reacting but I find that they have been getting it right on the day.

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I think it is well worthwhile keeping an eye on what the bookies say - they are trying their very best to predict the future with financial consequences if they get it wrong.

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It seems like the laws regarding the legality of the Teferendum, Erskine May has been put back into the cupboard.
This woman is appalling.

‘Yes’ seems a good punt to me, must be worth a tenner ?
Saying that, the bookies don’t often get it wrong !

The trouble with bookie’s odds in this situation is that they are not probabilities and they are not exactly based on reliable political analysis.

For example odds of 2/5 mean about 71% chance of a yes vote whereas 7/4 is a 37% chance of a no vote.

Clearly there is not a 108% chance of the vote being one of yes or no.

It is done this way to guarantee the bookies a profit (assuming fairly even betting), not to make a prediction.

Yes, it is in the bookie’s interest to get it more-or-less in the ballpark but they aren’t political analysts.

Never personally placed a bet in my life so the odds are a mystery to me…

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Indeed it didn’t pass last night because it was the wrong time. But, much like the original referendum all these parliamentary votes are advisory not legislative at present and therefore providing any motion is worded differently a second vote could be retabled if the will of Parliament is behind it. Whilst Bercow could reject it protocol is that if the will of Parliament is there then he will allow it. It’s how May is able to table MV3 so rule nothing out.

And I still throw in the mix the third way which also is still on the table, the so called nuclear option. May’s deal, no deal, or recind Article 50 and remain! That is still the third way which everyone neglects to speak of. This would allow us to go away work through the options with our European partners in slower time, and come up with a considered solution on this mess, without an ever ticking clock in the background of some arbitrary deadline. Of course none of those in Government or Parliament would have the balks to push that button. But it does still remain a valid option on the table.

Brian, if A50 is revoked that is it, no going back, the UK would remain in the EU for good. Whilst that is attractive to many neither May or Corbyn currently see that as an option.

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The perceived wisdom is that revoking A50 is a one way street. Presumably not forever but for a considerable time.

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A generation, perhaps?

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I don’t see that you can do it without “the will of the people” via another referendum.

Can someone please enlighten me as to why the European Elections are being see as critical to many decisions about extensions.

I can see it would be a bit daft to put forward new MEPs - but only daft not disastrous.

I would imagine that it could be written in that at the point of withdrawal any UK MEPs would no longer have a seat.

Am I missing something?