Brexit Vote, what next!

I think Peter answers this correctly - at the end of the day the referendum question was pretty straightforward and there has been no suggestion of interference with the voting process itself.

There are problems with the referendum but its democratic legitimacy could only be questioned in terms of whether the electorate was fully representative and competent to make the decision. Many have suggested that 16 and 17 year-olds should have been allowed to vote as they have “more to gain (or lose)” than older people and, of course, many have suggested that ex-pats who have been out of the country for > 15 years should also have been included since many live in the EU and would potentially be affected.

I have sympathy for these views but, since the rules of eligibility to vote were in line with all other UK elections I think they are relatively weak. In particular those who have been living in the EU for > 15 years will generally have acquired the right to live in their host country and the right to apply for citizenship of that country so are less likely to be affected by the outcome.

There is also the issue that the 2017 election was fought with the Tories promising to deliver Brexit including repatriation of the legislative process, control over our trade deals and control of our borders - although May lost the Tory majority they are the largest party so that provides a separate mandate of sorts to carry Brexit through.

I say “of sorts” because if I hear the claim that 80% wanted Brexit because 80% voted for parties which promised to deliver Brexit one more time I shall scream. With only two parties in the UK who have any meaningful chance of forming a government and both of them pledged to take us out of the EU it is not as if Remainers had a choice. In fact even the Lib-Dems had watered their pledge down to holding a further referendum by the time of the election campaign.

As I see it the problems are a) that the vote was supposed to be advisory and b) that the manifesto which made promises as to the manner of leaving was undeliverable.

Point a) is an issue for those who seek (or sought) to overturn the vote - doing so does not rob parliament of the legal power to trigger article 50 so it would be a pyrrhic victory (this line of attack was abandoned anyway as far as I know).

Point b) is where many of the problems stem from and it is legitimate to ask whether people understood the implications of their leave vote - because in reality they were not just voting to leave the EU, they were voting to give the NHS £350 million a week, build more houses and schools, provide more jobs and keep all the benefits of EU membership yet allow the UK to free itself of EU influence and rules.

The “Leave means Leave” and “Willy of the People” crowd choose to ignore this and focus simply on what was asked on the ballot and, sadly, they are technically correct. It doesn’t stop me feeling that the public were conned

Many Leave campaigners promised control over immigration simultaneously with retaining access to the SM - it was always obvious that this was an either-or proposition but people accepted it as possible. That in itself might not have been a problem - politicians rarely have a problem reneging on manifesto promises and rarely (with the notable exception of the Lib-Dems recently) get called out on it. But the GFA kind-of crystallised the promises into something that had to be delivered. A border which was simultaneously open and closed.

Sadly I think that you are correct. As I said previously I think she won’t take it off the table because she thinks the EU will still blink first - I don’t think that will happen. While there is an irony that standing up for Ireland and insisting on a legally watertight agreement which ensures the open border (and let us not forget that it was our lack of integrity in the negotiations which forced the backstop upon us) means that the chance of us exiting with no deal and thus no agreement over the Irish border is that much higher I thinkthat the EU would rather be seen to have been united and failed than capitulate and fail to protect a member at the last minute.

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It’s pointless even discussing whether the initial vote was democratic or not as both campaigns spouted claptrap based on the great unknown - what would life be like out of the EU.

I’m coming round to the idea that it would be better if the UK leaves now with a deal and then applies to re-join in a few years time.

The genie has been let out of the bottle so to cancel Brexit would not make the divisions go away they’d just be amplified and the EU would be mistrustful of the UK if we stayed in, the UK also needs stability not more more months/years of uncertainty.

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Much of what the Remain project said might happen if we left were dismissed as Project Fear and later as lies - however the main reason much has not come to pass is not that Remain were lying but that we haven’t left yet.

I agree we can’t turn the clock back but analysis is not futile. Unless we understand why things went badly wrong (and you will not convince me otherwise) we are likely to repeat the error at some point.

If we leave with no deal and see half of the damage predicted by mainstream forecasts (I’m ignoring the IEA rot here) we’ll be hammering on the door.

It might be too late, of course, if we have allowed too much divergence on our regulatory milieu, or our services industry has suffered too much displacement into the EU, or our agri-business has been decimated by cheap imports.

We’ll also have to take the Euro and pay full contributions.

It will be a difficult pill to swallow.

No, we can’t re-cork this one - the process itself has damaged the country immeasurably and it is the point around which a lot of pent-up rage has condensed and against which it is directed. Unfortunately the EU and our membership of it is not to blame for poverty in the North and leaving will not fix our problems - it will just exacerbate them and diminish our ability to repair the economy.

Cameron has an awful lot to answer for.

Edit: I partly take back my last comment. Cameron foolishly took the lid off Pandora’s box but he was not responsible for everything within.

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What isn’t mentioned much is that leaving the EU with no deal will not make the problem go away. Any situation that puts Northern Ireland and RoC in different trading blocks will automatically bring the same dilemma of need a border/can’t have a border. Nobody is going to be happy trading with/entering into a trading agreement with a partner that can’t guarantee its border integrity. The concerns that the EU have, are only the same concerns that every trading partner will have.

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If there’s a no-deal Brexit there will surely have to be a border between NI and Ireland.

@Aquitaine, @tim17, @anon88169868, @anon7138442

Did you see my post further up on this thread yesterday - I would be interested in honest comments as you all seem to be quite vocal on Brexit.

Any merit, absolute cloud cuckoo, or just plain fantasy?

Not so Peter.
Those over 18 who had been living abroad over 15 years were denied the vote…
How democratic is that particularly when so many of them live in the EU?

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The refendum may not have been ‘legally binding’ but the problem many MPs have (including the PM) is that the vote was ‘democratically binding’ that is to say, the ‘people’ have voiced their opinion through the ballot box (whether the info given was correct or not in the build-up campaign) and that decision must be obeyed in order to respect the democratic principles the UK (for the most part) has adhered to over the centuries.
It’s interesting to see how those MPs advocating a second referendum conveniently forget the democratic side of things…

Morning Matt, I’ve not posted my views on here regarding Brexit much over the last week or so because they are at odds with many, given the nature of this web community. That said I’ll annotate my comments against your posted view on a way forward.

Quoted text -

The solution to Brexit, well a suggestion anyway!

It would appear to me that a major sticking point currently is MPs being consulted on a party by party basis, but within each party there are opposing views and therefore having something agreed with a party leader is not necessarily going to get it through the House of Commons. Today the PM is discussing things with some of the party leaders whereas others are refusing to attend – the issue to me is party leaders, it should be representatives of like-minded MPs and not on a party basis as some MPs from differing parties have the same thoughts on Brexit. - DW - the PM has led negotiations with the EU over the last 2.5 years and in accordance with the “meaningful vote” has laid that before parliament. Parliament has emphatically identified it as a bad deal. This is key for me as to what happens next.

My suggestion package for discussion is as follows:
Delay Article 50 by 3 or 6 months (may not be popular but is required for a proper solution) - DW - I would agree in a short delay more likely 3 months but possibly 6 - to allow time for a good deal to be renegotiated if cross party reviews throw up suggested change which; the majority of the house approves of in principle, the EU suggests is a goer and is consistent with actually leaving the EU.
Announce the following proposals. DW - agree
Make a Statement that the 2016 Referendum was not legally binding , despite suggestions at the time that the result would be acted upon - DW - the conditions set out before the vote by David Cameron were clear - its for us the people to decide - not politicians - my view is that the referendum result was clear - it was to leave the EU. What is in scope here and now is how we leave the EU not if we leave.
Every MP must commit to be represented entirely by collective representative (eg Jacob Rees-Mogg, Yvonne Cooper) – if there is no leader that represents their views they can represent their own views. - DW this works for me.

4a. This group of representatives then consider the main core issues of Brexit (perhaps 10 cores issues) of what they do want rather than what they don’t want. DW - for me this is driving out problem statements and associated change to the PM’s deal - key principle being we leave but what is the manner of our leaving.
4b. Group of representatives are likely to rule out No Deal. DW - red line for me and others like me, the No Deal must remain as its the alternative to a bad deal and encourages dialogue.
4c. A representative from EU can be present and influencing the decision to ensure that core issue resolution could be endorsed by EU. DW - the pragmatist in me suggests that the must be an EU stakeholder consulted and informed throughout the “what deal does the UK want phase” to ensure time is not wasted. Politically difficult for both parties.
4d. The representatives vote upon these issues, each representative has the number of votes that reflect the number of MPs who have committed to them. DW - this is probably just stakeholder management. PM and Brexit secretary must sign off on what is to be taken back to the house for a second vote. I would broadly agree that significant stakeholders would provide their own discreet sign off before it goes back to PM/ Brexit secretary.
4e. At this point the majority of MPs have agreed the outcome of the core Brexit points. DW - agreed

The collection of core principles decided is put to EU for voting by them.
Steps 4 and 5 repeat until agreement (Majority of MPs now in agreement, EU now in agreement)
The new agreement is now put to a legally binding referendum with the choice “New Deal” or “Remain” – exact details of the “New Deal” are now known and have been agreed (there is no other deal). An informed decision can now be taken by the public. - DW this is where we disagree - the deal negotiations are “time boxed” if a good deal can be done this is taken to the house and rubber stamped. If not we leave with no deal and move to WTO rules.

At this point:

Majority MPs would be in agreement DW - yes but if no good deal emerges we leave anyway.
EU would be in agreement - DW - as above.
Majority of UK population is in agreement DW - broadly the referendum is implemented we leave with a good deal - according to parliament or no deal.

This is just my idea with a hope of moving towards an acceptable solution.

I understand that some may consider that as absolutely laughable fantasy land - but bearing in mind the complexity of finding a solution…what ideas do you have as an alternative that passes the above 3 key points (MPs, EU, public) ?

DW - hopefully you receive this feedback as I intend it and understand it represents my view point :slight_smile:

Thanks David - I have no issue with discussion or points of view on the subject, I think it is good to explore the subject with a view to trying to establish a route to a solution rather than exchanging insults.

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No, it won’t, I pointed this out earlier in the thread. I think May is of the opinion that the EU will blink because, with no deal, the Irish Border immediately becomes a problem - which is why she won’t take no-deal off the table.

I do not want to insult anybody and please forgive me but… I’m afraid that citizens of England hadn’t a real understanding of the issues and the effect that it will have on peoples lives after leaving EU.

Basically, in the case of no-deal Brexit :

  1. The UK would cut ties with the European Union overnight without a transition period.

  2. UK would not have to obey EU rules. Instead, it would need to follow World Trade Organization terms on a trade.
    which means:

  • new taxes on imports,
    -new taxes on exports,
    -new taxes on services,
    which are to increase their operating costs up drastically.

For example:
Price on milk- (which is coming from France and Germany) & all cheeses
(including cheddar which is coming in 82% from…The Republic of Ireland) will be arisen for 75% - because since 1 April 2019 UK have to pay tax on imports.

Yes, some people told me " we will start to produce our milk and our cheese" - but let be honest - it takes time.
A lot of time. What in between? How people will manage to live/survive without basic products?

  1. Logistic problems will arise as well - expect queues at the border for several hundred kilometres. Apparently, Brexit may mean a drop in exports by as much as 30 per cent in the long term.

  2. The border between Northern Ireland and The Republic of Ireland would become an external frontier for the EU with customs and immigration controls, though how and where any checks would be made is not clear.

  3. UK travellers won’t need a visa for short visits of up to 90 days.

  4. “The City” will move out to Paris.

However, there is one advantage: The UK would be free to set its own immigration controls.

I do not understand why nobody clearly explained that before the 2016 referendum?

I have heard that UK want to be like Norway …without actually knowing which kind of deal was signed between Norway and EU.
Norway, in order to be a part of free EU market (on equal rules, no taxes), had to agree for free people movement - so agree for European immigrants.

And as far as I understood, UK does not want to have immigrants right?

EU would not change the rules.

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What you don’t understand is that the majority of voters were not interested in ‘the facts’.
They just wanted someone to confirm their prejudices.

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Let’s not forget that the British Government has always been entitled to have much tighter restrictions on immigration but has chosen not to.

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I did but have had a busy week so only had chance for a quick glance.

Very reasonable points you make there Teddy, I do appreciate you making them in such a gentlemanly way too! :blush:

Incidentally, typing Teddy summons up :bear:, but I expect you’re only too well aware…could be worse, I expect :dog::thinking:

Democracy is an imperfect instrument, but as Winnie said (I think) it’s the least worst. There is a modern tendency to believe that for every problem there is a simple solution. We need to re-learn the truth of chaos and disorder, and that ‘nature’ doesn’t care or have a plan for us.

Brilliant Stella it sums up the whole thing perfectly!

Takes a while to get into the video… but… oh I do love the Marx Brothers… glad you enjoyed it…

Well they can join those that will split from Labour if Corbyn doesn’t soon get his act together and start talking sense and joining the talks! And form their own party who hopefully get get this mess sorted!

Isolating the extremists in both parties would be all for the good.
The fiction that both the Tories and Labour are broad churches is now well and truly exposed.
Let them stand on their own and see just how well they fare.

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