Why have you underlined no idea? I’ve never claimed that I know how anybody would have voted but the facts remain the same, the will of those who voted leave and the will of the people are actually completely different things. It’s you who is manufacturing hypothetical numbers without any justification.
Errr, because you really don’t have any idea how they would have voted? The best guess is that the range of opinion in those who did not or could not vote was similar to those that did.
Yes, I made a total guess but you only need a small number of Leave voters to have done so believing the promises about not leaving the single market, or having access “just as good” as when we were a member or who thought they were voting for EEA membership to have a demonstrable majority for Soft Brexit - or would have had if rabid Brexit fever hadn’t taken over.
You’ll note that I have, on many occasions said that I don’t think that the referendum result was valid or was a reliable indicator of “The Will of the People” (the will of a whipped-up mob maybe) - I’m just trying to point out that I don’t think that graphic is saying what it wants to make you think it is saying (i.e that there is only just over 25% support for Leave).
Well we are jumping of the cliff and there is nothing to save us.
No deal wouldn’t suit the EU either, my guess is that an extension of time for negotiations will be granted.
You have completely missed the point of my post. The will of the people is the phrase that is driving Brexit yet the only proof that exists is that a small percentage of the population actually voted to leave the EU. Those people ‘won’ an advisory referendum, nothing more. Why economic facts and common sense have to be ignored as a result is beyond me.
I’m not missing the point of your post, and I share your frustration regarding the result, but the system does assume the votes of those who bothered to turn up are representative and, in fact, I do not think that there is any great point getting incensed about the fact that “only” 34.7% of the electorate voted to Leave (I’m ignoring the “can’t vote” section, that’s just based on the % of the electorate that voted Leave).
Edit: Re-phrased the above paragraph.
First - Considering that the liberals take 10-20% of the vote and the fact that no UK election gets 100% turnout the winning party in every UK general election has been voted for by a minority of the electorate. In fact on at least one occasion (the Feb 1974 election) the party with the most seats “lost” the popular vote (this also happened in the 'States as Clinton beat Trump in the popular vote). The fact that it is not infrequently pointed out has done nothing to change the system so I think we are stuck with “that’s how it works”; sorry.
It’s pants, I know, but there is no real appetite for electoral reform in the UK.
Second - if you want to call into question the validity of the result there are better targets - the lies and undeliverable promises would be a good start.
Third - given that the result has been accepted despite its extreme lack of reliability (and no amount of argument will get it “un-accepted”) it is easy to demonstrate that there is no mandate for hard Brexit (see my arguments above).
But to be honest all of this is academic. The process has moved on from the referendum result apart from the accusation that Remainers are betraying “The Will of the People” being trotted out regularly to keep the baying mob frothing at the mouth.
Frankly the lunatics have taken over the asylum - when even moves to allow scrutiny by parliament are shouted down with accusations of betrayal, treachery and treason you know that, whatever the ultras bleat about democracy, they actually want nothing of the sort and parliamentary democracy has failed, or gone on holiday somewhere and decided not to return.
I do not want Brexit - I think that it is unwise and in the current geo-political and economic climate getting more unwise by the second but who is going to stop it - not the LibDems because even they have pulled back from being the “Stop Brexit” party to being the “we will have a referendum” party, Labour has its own problems but at the end of the day Corbyn is a Eurosceptic and most of his MPs are afraid they will loose their (heavily Leave supporting) seat if they try to stop the process and the Tories have been taken over by the cancer of the ERG.
I’m not sure where we go from here. The Ultras would be happy if we flunk out without a deal as that would give them exactly what they want. They are happy that May is boxed in - unable to soften the (modified) Chequers agreement because she has no chance of getting that through the Commons, unwilling to harden what she sees as her Magnum Opus and tied in by her red lines but they do not wish to unseat her at the moment because that would likely lead to the collapse of the government, a General Election and the distinct possibility of a Corbyn administration.
Of course that would be bad for the Tories but it would be just as bad for the UK because I don’t think that Labour has any f*****g clue how to deal with Brexit or run the country; Corbyn is a protester, not a leader.
No it wouldn’t but they are starting to behave as though they see it as inevitable and are taking steps to deal with the no-deal scenario. Though I wouldn’t put a bit of posturing beyond the EU negotiators.
My suspicion is still that we will somehow avoid bombing out with some sort of fudge, extension, or whatever but the current situations seems a bit volatile.
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If you want to know the real reasons behind Brexit, as ever, follow the money:
See the pound is slippin’ down the tube 
That’s putting it mildly!
A bloody disaster… ‘Somebody’ is going to make a killing by betting on the pound here.
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Since the referendum the £ has been remarkably stable around 1.12€ to 1.15€ mark (though it is at the lower end of that range presently).
Whether the markets have fully priced in a “no deal” scenario I don’t know - I suspect that there will be further devaluation if we do bomb out with nothing agreed.
One (possible) optimistic note is that the EU are sticking to negotiating the withdrawal and rough framework only, so the actual trade arrangements need to wait until we have left. If enough fudge can be put into the framework to make everyone happy and not rule out a particular outcome we should be able to hit March 2019 with the transition period intact. At which point we can all breath a bit easier for another year and a bit.
The pound dropping like this is costing us, personally, £1000 per cent on the purchase of our house.
We had factored an exchange rate of £1 to E1.12 and anything above that would have been a bonus. Below E1.12 and things get tight…
Here’s hoping for an interest rate rise sometime in September / October…
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Pleased I’m not making any big € purchases Carl,
At the time of the referendum the £ was 1.31 ish euros (although this was a peak just prior to the referendum) - it dropped almost immediately to 1.15. Over the past year it has been trading in a pretty narrow band of 1.08 to 1.15. Unfortunately the 1.44 euros/£ from July 2015 are a very distant memory.
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Yes, it fell very sharply after the referendum, was a bit volatile between low teens and 1.20 or so through late 2016/early 2017 but, as your graph shows well has been fairly stable for the past year - despite all of the political upheaval in that time, this is the period that I was mainly referring to. I shouldn’t really have said “after the referendum” - I should have been clear that I meant once the initial sharp fall was over and the dust had settled a bit.
To be fair above 1.40€ to the £ is definitely over-valued, that is what did for us in the ERM.
And they complain about the rise in the cost of living in UK due to Brexit.
Well, inflation has indeed gone up - how much this is Brexit it is hard to tell.
I’m a simple guy with a tiny brain so perhaps someone could help me with something that’s been puzzling me for some time.
The EU has four ‘freedoms’ that are sacrosanct and cannot be negotiated, TM has her ‘red lines’ which she won’t (as yet) budge from and these clash with some of the ‘freedoms’, in addition the EU has made clear from the start that cherry picking/cake eating will not be tolerated, so how the fook is it going to be possible for any sort of an agreement?
There are more than 4 freedoms these days
- registration on arrival
- must demonstrate here to work (have a job) or actively looking for work (register with job centre etc)
- any stay > 3 months muct not be a burden on the state (i.e no benefits, must have health insurance)
I.e actually impose the restrictions which are allowed within the EU treaties, the EU can’t object and it can probably be dressed up as controlling our borders given the level of ignorance about this subject in general.
Free movement of goods:
Acceptance of EU standards and the “customs arrangement” that is in the White Paper already, if we can get the EU to agree…
Free movement of capital:
Umm, given modern banking and the fact that we are not currently in the Euro anyway I suspect this would not be a problem in practice
Free movement of services:
A potential sticking point, but one which needs to be worked out as part of the trading arrangements
Digital services: as above
Recognition of qualifications
Shouldn’t be an issue
Communications
Shouldn’t be an issue (the Internet does not stop at national borders after all, well except China and DPRK, and maybe Australia)
Energy
Haven’t thought about this one, assuming that it just means we allow EU companies to offer services in the UK market and vice versa I guess no problem and/or it comes out as part of the services deal.
Talking of keeping the mob foaming at the mouth - is there any wonder that the readership of the “Red Top” papers feels antipathy to the EU when we get headlines like this:
In this case the headline is from the Daily Express.
It’s just too easy isn’t it? Produce an unworkable plan, then blame the other side for rejecting it. I couldn’t be a politician because I would be ashamed of pulling a trick like this.
However it is abundantly clear that the Brexiteers, and their supporting press, will blame absolutely everyone except themselves if Brexit turns out to be a mess and, once again, the average voter will not realise that they are being lied to because they will be all too willing to see the EU/May/Remainers as the bogey man.
Edit: Thinking about this for a second longer it’s even better - JRM is the one doing the rubbishing, having heavily criticised the Chequers plan himself. The man is a total hypocrite.
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It’s all about educating the masses. Unfortunately it’s an education that rubbishes facts and expertise.
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