China sneezes 2023

Hard to say how this will play out but anything major happening in China will affect the entire world.

“Chinese stocks fell sharply as investors raised concerns over the impact of the protests on the world’s second-largest economy.”

1,000 protesters in Beijing, another 1,000 in Shanghai and some elsewhere may not seem like much but it such a tightly controlled environment it may indicate the tip of the iceberg.

Xi Jingping has a large military and no qualms about using it to maintain his power but he will also be well aware that historically in China regimes were overthrown by revolt of the masses. The first thing he will do is probably seek, fund and disappear any and all possible leaders of protest, from within or outside China.

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I read tody they are so worried they have a 30 seconds delay on the live FIFA feed to delete the un masked fans thus showing the rest of the world have better control of covid and their own vaccines are inferior to the west’s

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Researchers estimated the Sinovac shot has effectiveness rates of 38% against Covid-19, 65% against hospitalization, and 69% against an infection severe enough to require admission to an intensive care unit.

For this reason, Canada, UK and others do not recognise Sinovax recipients as fully vaccinated as entry requires.

I’m not surprised about a FiFA games feed delay, all international cover has the same. Not sure how they edit out all crowd scenes but hell CGI :nerd_face:

The protests in major cities are creative and brave

“It is not clear how police discovered the identities of some protesters and the vast majority of those at Sunday’s rally did not have their ID documents checked by police, an AFP journalist saw.”

It is surprising to me that China’s citizens do not fully understand they are being tracked and monitored at all times and can very quickly be approached by police

Wearing a mask is no longer adequate protection from CCTV surveillance

What happened during and after the Hong Kong recent protests perhaps gives a fairly clear view of what may happen next

I am sure they know they will be identified, but have reached the point where they cannot do nothing. It must be desperate.

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This has been simmering for a long time. The dilemma for Mr Xi is how to balance.

“It (China) now faces nationwide unrest erupting spontaneously. It will no doubt use all the resources of its totalitarian state to try to repress it, but faces its biggest challenge in more than three decades as it tries to do so.”

The only upside that I can see is that Russia is going to get no support or hardware from China, hopefully at least before the spring.

Here is a dilema for the PRC politburo and Mr Xi

Albeit protesters currently outnumbered by press, this may light a flame. Clearly, no one is falling for the Party line that the protests are fuelled by ‘foreign forces’ (more specifically USA.)

What may present an unexpected win for the PRC politburo is that people of Hong Kong, hitherto hostile towards their northern compatriots, now exhibit sympathy and unity with the citizens of mainland China. At least in their protest. All the flag waving, anthem singing, police ordered national loyalty has not managed to achieve this sense of unity until now.

The dilemma for Mr Xi, is if and how had to come down on these dissenters. Too much and it creates yet more unified resistance, albeit latent. Too little and the flammes may ignite a wildfire.

I suspect that any and all dissent against the party line is automatically due to ‘foreign forces’. No patriotic Chinese person would oppose the will and rule of the party.

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“It is hard to overstate how extraordinary this is. “


Scary future warning!

Protesters Guangzhou, China, confronted police officers in white protective clothing.Reuters

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Isn’t white the colour of death in China?

It is indeed. That is just one more thing that makes this choice of PPE even more chilling. (I think that actually the PPE is a very pale ice blue but just looks white in nightlight.)

The white/blank A4 papers and hankies being waved by protesters also suggest death. The death of freedom and a voice.

The PRC rulers really have a challenge with this pandemic. The policy hitherto has been to prevent infection spread by isolating people. Testing took priority over vaccinating.

China spurned Moderna or Pfizer vaccines, using only the home grown SinovacSinopharm. Unfortunately, these vaccines only give at best 58% cover, falling to ~29% after 6 months. It is now 8 months since China achieved around 90% vaccination rate.

The false security of lockdowns and a fear of harming elderly by administering boosters without taking into account all their health histories, have led to a very really drop in levels of immunity. Very few elderly people, without having received boosters, now have any cover against the virus.

If the country opens up now, as understandably frustrated protesters demand, the system will be completely overwhelmed by the volume of Covid cases requiring hospitalisation. The death toll could be enormous and the cry against government management would be catastrophic.

China is currently working on a new mRNA vaccine but need a bit more time.

Managing this is probably much more than a challenge. It is a dilemna

Update Dec 15 2022

The authority sends a new message - The price for freedom

China appears to have, nearly, stopped sneezing and taken to spring with balloons
China breezes, 2023

Since satellites already provide China with all the aerial footage of the US that it needs, why send a balloon?

What no one is saying, and it would absolutely not be the Chinese, is that the poor balloon is totally lost. Lost control. Wandering via trade winds and with possibly no camera feedback if tech control has been lost.

China may just be hoping it wafts into territory where they can discreetly shoot it down themselves.

It’s a weather balloon.

Now everyone can save face.

“….the Chinese nation’s great revival is on an irreversible path.”

He (Xi Jinping) promised to build China’s military into a “great wall of steel”. China’s defence budget will increase by 7.2% in 2023, compared with a general public expenditure increase of 5.7%.

Xi is trying to position himself as a global statesman, leading a China that is ready to dominate the world stage.

Something to reflect on, in case you are still feeling that US global dominance is the worst thing.


No doubt funded by us in the “west” i.e. Europe and North America


I’m afraid that when we choose to have everything made in China because it is cheaper, we are pouring money into whatever China’s government wants to spend it on. Whether that be bat virus labs or armaments.

Perhaps other countries that merrily outsourced production to China during the past decades can regenerate at home but will consumers be willing to pay what might be considerably higher prices? I doubt. People are more inclined to want the cheaper washing machine today and let tomorrow take care if itself. China is very good at preparing for tomorrow.


This is exactly @John Scully’s point. That, plus the careless transfer of intellectual property by companies outsourcing to China in all fields including some sensitive ones.

Though I’m very, very surprised the Chinese somehow managed to create only a relatively ineffective vaccine, Sinovac, for covid. Given the history of where the virus came from, the advantages China must have accrued by carrying out work on viruses for the WHO, and their own enormous population in need of it.