Makerfield is a safe Labour seat having returned a Labour MP since its creation in 1983.
In 2024 Reform won 12,803 votes (out of 40,263 turnout which was 52.5%), the latest result was 15,696 and an increase in the share of the vote from 31.8% to 34.5%
So Nige has something to crow about unfortunately.
In fact the total RW vote currently stands at 19804 which is significantly higher than pre 2015 elections. It’s not quite the highest which was 21031 in 2019 for the combination of the Brexit party and the Tories but there is an upward trend and also a trend to more extreme RW parties having ousted the Tories and pushed them into a very poor fourth place.
In fact if you factor out the current Labour leadership brouhaha I don’t think it is a very comfortable situation for Labour. They have gone from winning comfortably in a constituency where the Tories consistently came second with 15-30% of the vote to one where the right wing is getting over 40% of the vote and it is close to the point where the only thing that is keeping Labour hanging on is the fact that the vote is split (currently between Reform and Restore with a tiny number of Tory die hards).
Good luck to Starmer, he can’t now be blamed for any ills the party suffers in the coming years. It will be interesting to see whether Rayner or Streeting stand against Burnham but at least it will be sorted before the summer recess.
Not a chance. Farage wouldn’t either (and given the structure of his “party” I’ll bet he couldn’t be ousted as leader if he were PM, even if the whole edifice was crashing down around his ears).
That said (would Farage turn up if he were PM? He has something of a record of absenteeism.
Imagine if leaders had to rely on the force of argument and strength of evidence to push reforms and win parliamentary votes, not crude arm-twisting, patronage and party loyalty. This might also help break the toxic tribalism that prevents much-needed reform in areas such as social care, planning, prisons and drugs.
David Allen Green, the legal commentator, has pointed out that Starmer has resigned as leader of the party but not yet as PM. There’s another stage to go.