Exit poll of legislative

Usually pretty accurate

My only small happiness is that snake Zemmour only has 0.6%

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I’m rooting for Divers. We need more divers.

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Plongeurs?

sorry - I posted under deportation - then saw this thread. Copied from the Grauniad

Here are the latest Ipsos estimates.

As always, these numbers should be treated with caution.

National estimate at 9pm|465x254.5588235294118

And here are the updated estimations from Ifop – with the caveat that these numbers do not necessarily represent the final outcome in the national assembly.

:ballot_box::fr:Elections #legislatives2024 : 1er tour

Les estimations à 21H30 (France entière)

RN et alliés : 33,5%
NFP : 28,5%
Majo . Présid : 22,1%
LR et DVD : 9,7%
Reconquête : 0,7%@IfopOpinion pour @TF1 @LCI pic.twitter.com/Kvqck3cTrg

They won’t! It isn’t proportional representation so RN will get a shed load more seats than they should have. And a shed load more money that one hopes they won)t use as fraudulently as they have used other public finds.

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Appalling. Loads of people were up early voting at the same time as I was this morning. I hope the people who abstained will vote next Sunday and not for the RN.

Do you think they’ll get the majority? I’m looking to buy more euro’s and there might be big movements next week on the back of the exit polls and actual first round results (issued Tuesday?) - let alone the final result. A majority isn’t expected by the markets.

edit - a seat projection I’ve just seen. No idea how accurate these projectionists are.

Looking at those polls I think the value of a euro is the least of our worries.

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*Market reaction to Sunday’s result was muted, Reuters reports, with the euro gaining around 0.23% in early Asia-Pacific trading.

Fiona Cincotta, senior markets analyst at London’s City Index, described relief that the result yielded “no surprises.” She said:

Le Pen had a slightly smaller margin than some of the polls had pointed to, which may have helped the euro a little bit higher on the open. Attention now is on July 7 to see whether the second round supports an absolute majority or not. So it does feel like we’re a little bit in limbo.*

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It is very worrying that next week we could have a prime minister that has never done a serious day’s work in his life! Extraordinary!

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A hung parliament is the most likely outcome which we lead to a stalemate and possibly another election.

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I find this German English speaking new channel very informative.

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I may be wrong here, but I think that having once called législatives at the wrong time that’s it, they can’t be called again until it’s the proper time.

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That’s been the norm in the UK for quite some time…

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There has to be at least a year before he/they can call another.

I’m afraid our area voted 50% (49.69) for RN. Nearest opponent was ENS with 22%. Clearly, the farmers are angry.

At least 3 decades.

As are all the working folks that thought they approaching retirement age who now have to work an extra 2 years thanks to Macron mis-using Article 49.3.

Fortunately we’re about to get a PM who knows what hard work and attention to detail is!

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Always unpopular raising the retirement age but surely necessary. Isn’t France taking a more sensible position with those who were closer to retirement than the UK did with women?

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