It is so difficult…I just wish we could know for sure, we simply can’t. Stay safe, if best you can! x
For those of us in the more vulnerable groups, the rise in the number of infections is concerning.
However, I think that from a governmental perspective it is the number of people being hospitalised that is more important. No government wants the health service being overrun on their watch due to the consequent political damage. If there are lots of infections, but those infected recover at home, well that’s pretty sort of OK with the government.
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Yes I agree with you, it is the rate of hospitalisations and deaths that is likely to be of greater concern to the government. And that it seems that transmission at the workplace is a big factor rather than just badly behaved foreign tourists.
My bet is that the Government don’t want to perturb the situation now during holiday season, but we will see local lockdowns from September, at the level of a town/city rather than nationally.
There is a danger that will prove to be a mistake. Even if you assume the virus is circulating among a younger, less affected population, numbers of new cases are now at levels similar to the peak earlier in the year. That could easily spill over into more vulnerable groups.
Covid mutates less rapidly than some viruses but we have already seen one mutation (the so-galled G614 mutation) sweep through to be the predominant strain as it appears more successful at infecting people - perhaps up to three times more effective, we don’t know if it is any less likely to be lethal but there is no reason for it not to be.
A more transmissible, just as lethal virus could easily wreak havoc this winter.
They are not doing nothing, but just not locking down. Our local town which has not had a new hospitalisation or death for months has now made mask wearing obligatory everywhere - ie in the street - because the number of cases has risen.
It’s just that lockdown, so far, has been the only truly effective strategy.
I appreciate Macron does not want a further national lockdown - and, given the impact on the economy that is understandable, but the virus does not share our concerns about accumulating small bits of green paper (with deference to the late, great, Douglas Adams).
I think a relevant factor is that those in the most vulnerable groups have already done one of two things. Either they have already succumbed, or have developed defensive strategies to markedly decrease the chance of catching the virus.
Certainly we find that we have no intention of traveling, frequenting cafes, bars, or restaurants , or indeed going to any place of public resort other than for medical care (and even then we take our own drinks and sandwiches if needs be).
In this way we learn to live with it until such time as a vaccine is available.
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It goes further than that, I don’t think the French people will accept a 2nd national lockdown.
…and if cases hit 10k/day?
And if it hits 10k a day and they live, then yes, there will be no lockdown.
Like many other countries they will be hoping hospitalizations remain manageable and deaths low. Economies versus lives…and the winner is?
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As always Peut-être???
We have changed our behaviours, but we are now trying to live as normal a life as possible despite my being immune suppressed. So are going out to cinema, outdoor spectacles, restaurants and so on. It seems that the greatest risk is in crowded indoor places, so we avoid those, and have FPP2 masks and use lots of handgel everywhere else. And we are still planning to go on holiday in the autumn… living involves a degree of risk whatever you do.
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4½k today - at least it is slightly less than yesterday.
New hospitalisations 210 - as France has accelerated testing considerably I’d expect positive tests to be almost as soon as people become symptomatic and that most people who become symptomatic will now be tested. The number actually in hospital is fairly steady at just under 5000 a level which hasn’t changed much in the past 7 days.
Hospitalisation tends to occur about 7 days after people 1st show symptoms - so go back a week and there were 2.8k new cases, so we are looking at less than 10% being serious to be admitted.
That, at least, is lower than when the pandemic started and the chances are that the patients hospitalised today have a significantly better chance of survival (I saw some UK figures which suggested survival in 50-59 year old patients admitted to ICU has gone up from 60% to 80% in the UK)
But the trend at the moment is an exponential rise again which makes this a dangerous game to play.
I live in Montpellier in South–Herault is a red zone now. I walked through the main plaza today where there were hordes of people (mostly tourists). Half were wearing masks when they are obligatory throughout the historic centre. Frightening!
I also teach English at a business school locally and they’ve decided to allow in-classroom teaching next month. Not happy about it. It’s these young people who are traveling, hanging out in groups and partying with no distancing.
Better compliance on public transport…but still worrying! Be safe all!
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Oh dear… it does sound worrying… 
at least I can stay home…
for those of you out at work… you can’t simply walk in the opposite direction… 
best of luck
Getting close to the 5k mark
But hospital numbers flat which I think is misleading the authorities into thinking that this wave is not as serious.
Time will tell.
Can’t see me getting to France in November though 
Pinning my hopes on Christmas now…
I’m making alternative plans for Christmas… 
just in case…