Good news from Italy

Here is the latest infection test result chart from Italy.
They are beginning to feel optimistic, but warn that it is not time to relax. They have to go on with the lock down until it is over.



Inteeresting to see that nobody is interested in good news from Italy.
You should be, their history is your future!

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I and I am sure others are interested Mike and I thank you for posting this data.
Personally I am swamped with figures, doubt the veracity of many and take others with a pinch of salt depending upon the source. I shall wait and see. Nonetheless this would seem to be encouraging.

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Just a small increase yesterday, but I didn’t quite believe the massive drop the day before. But it does seem to be settling down into a (slightly ragged) classic bell curve.
Italy is carrying out the next largest number of tests after S. Korea. Hopefully the pressure on their hospitals will soon begin to ease.
I think they are a good model for other countries to follow. Bite the bullet and take the pain if you want to get the virus under control quickly.

It does suggest a reporting error.

Let’s hope they aren’t too much of a model - 66 dead doctors.

My guess it will be worse in the UK, with all those retired volunteers, a serious lack of protective kit and failure to impose a hard lockdown.

Marked rise in reported new cases & deaths today - worryingly if you look back to when today’s deaths were presenting as new cases the apparent mortality is very high 60-80%, chances are we are not catching people when they would survive with support but leaving it much too late.

Italian figures looking good so far, waiting for today’s data with anticipation.

Do you mean in the UK, Paul? Haven’t seen the FR data yet.
But yes, it seems to have started for real in the UK. :no_mouth:

Yes, I do mean in the UK

And very little testing. “NHS England has sent a letter to all trusts saying the government has now lifted the 15% cap on staff testing”. :

Doesn’t look so good on a day to day basis, but hopefully that is because the previous reports were incomplete and we are actuallt looking at a gradual decrease.

Not disasterous for Italy, Spain is still suffering but hanging on in there, and a big reduction in new cases for France.
Would be so nice to think we’ve turned a corner but I daren’t get my hopes up yet.

I can only think if things have levelled off that it is due to being housebound - so my concern is a false hope of the Levelling off, everyone then released and the numbers then leap.

With more testing we will be able to spot any increase quickly enough to take action and an antibody test would make it possible to let people who had been exposed and recovered to return safely to work.

Looking at the recent figures it’s good news from France as well - daily new cases considerably down - here’s hoping that trend continues! :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

Even if sustained it will take 2-3 weeks to work through into the figures for deaths so these are likely to rise in the short term (hopefully yesterday’s figure of over 1000 is a bit of a blip but it will probably be at that level or above for a short period in a fortnight).

Yesterday’s number did include a ‘catch-up’ of ‘non hospital’ deaths (884).

If that is the case then no wonder it looks like a huge increase

Looking a bit like a Stegosaurus, but behind it all it is possible to detect a clear reduction in positive test results.