Out of curiosity, and because it is a) raining and b) I’m waiting for, and don’t want to miss, Jeff’s French cousin dropping off my new wellies I re-calculated the 2015 election results assuming PR.
Here is the result - apologies that it is a bit long.
Source for data - Electoral Reform UK
A couple of seats seem to have gone missing, counting the total No of seats in the “Nationwide” table gives 649, however there were 650 seats in parliament that year - possibly this discrepancy comes through not counting the Speaker, somewhere I’ve lost another seat in the PR totals, haven’t spotted where yet.
I have calculated the votes for the nations separately (which is why I used the Electoral Reform data as it was the first I found which broke down the four nations separately) - I very much doubt that PR would be applied nationally (Edit: i.e a single amalgamation of all UK votes) as doing so would wreck strong regional parties like SNP, Plaid or any of the NI parties. It would most likely be, as previously mentioned, “super constituencies”.
Obviously the big loosers are the Tories, Labour and, interestingly, the SNP while the big winners are the Lib Dems, Greens and, of course for 2015, UKIP.
So, clearly the result would be that no single party has overall control. Tory+UKIP+Unionists would have 328 seats vs Lab+Various Liberals+SNP+Greens+Plaid on 310. Sinn Fein and “others” I haven’t allocated to the most likely coalitions
Thus even with PR we’d have had a balance in parliament which would have almost certainly gone for the referendum and probably with a big UKIP component pushed for a hard Brexit afterwards. Would we even have had the 2017 election?
England |
533 |
|
|
|
|
Tory |
41 |
|
219 |
|
|
Lab |
31.6 |
|
168 |
|
|
UKIP |
14.1 |
|
75 |
|
|
LibDem |
8.2 |
|
44 |
|
|
Greens |
4.2 |
|
22 |
|
|
Other |
0.9 |
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Scotland |
59 |
|
|
|
|
SNP |
50 |
|
29 |
|
|
Lab |
24.3 |
|
14 |
|
|
Tory |
14.9 |
|
9 |
|
|
LibDem |
7.5 |
|
4 |
|
|
UKIP |
1.6 |
|
1 |
|
|
Greens |
1.3 |
|
1 |
|
|
Other |
0.9 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wales |
40 |
|
|
|
|
Lab |
36.9 |
|
15 |
|
|
Tory |
27.2 |
|
11 |
|
|
UKIP |
13.6 |
|
5 |
|
|
Plaid |
13.6 |
|
5 |
|
|
LibDem |
6.5 |
|
3 |
|
|
Greens |
2.6 |
|
1 |
|
|
Other |
1.1 |
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NI |
17 |
|
|
|
|
DUP |
25.7 |
|
4 |
|
|
SinnFein |
24.5 |
|
4 |
|
|
UUP |
16 |
|
3 |
|
|
SDLP |
13.9 |
|
2 |
|
|
Alliance |
8.6 |
|
2 |
|
|
Other |
11.3 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
UK |
649 |
Actual |
PR |
|
Change |
Tory |
|
331 |
239 |
|
-92 |
Lab |
|
232 |
197 |
|
-35 |
UKIP |
|
1 |
81 |
|
80 |
LibDem |
|
8 |
51 |
|
43 |
SNP |
|
56 |
29 |
|
-27 |
Greens |
|
1 |
24 |
|
23 |
Plaid |
|
3 |
5 |
|
2 |
DUP |
|
8 |
3 |
|
-5 |
SinnFein |
|
4 |
4 |
|
0 |
UUP |
|
2 |
3 |
|
1 |
SDLP |
|
3 |
2 |
|
-1 |
Alliance |
|
|
2 |
|
2 |
Other |
|
|
8 |
|
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
649 |
648 |
|
|
Quick explanation - the number after each nation is the number of seats in parliament for that nation, the number after each party is the percentage of that nation’s vote that the party received, then the number of seats that it would get if PR were completely fair.
The overall totals are the number of seats actually won, the number that would have been won under PR and the change.
Well done for reading this far down 