Interesting Ukraine / nuclear war analysis

I know it’s behind a pay wall, but the first three articles per month are free. Please let me know id you can’t access it, and I’ll make it available.

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I note a growing weary lack of interest in this war but find myself still reading about it daily.

This article, also in the NYT, lays out Putin’s options

It’s for these reasons that Aron, who just finished a book about Putin’s Russia, argues that this Ukraine conflict is far from over and could get a lot worse before it is.

“There are now two ways for Putin to end this war he cannot win and cannot walk away from,” Aron said. “One is to continue until Ukraine is bled dry and/or the Ukraine fatigue sets in in the West.”

And the other, he argued, “is to somehow force a direct confrontation with the U.S. — bring us to the precipice of an all-out strategic nuclear exchange — and then step back and propose to a scared West an overall settlement, which would include a neutral, disarmed Ukraine and his holding on to the Crimea and Donbas.”

It’s impossible to get into Putin’s head and predict his next move, but color me worried. Because what we do know, from Putin’s actions, is that he knows his Plan A has failed. And he will now do anything to produce a Plan B to justify the terrible losses that he has piled up in the name of a country where everybody talks and where defeated leaders don’t retire peacefully.

Seeing just one tank in their procession speaks volumes but for several propaganda reasons I am afraid and obviously deliberate.

I follow the war regularly and in English on the videos presented once every 2 days on youtube by Jake Broe.
Very pro-Ukraine, but very well done, not propaganda.
Highly recommended.

Maybe if you register, it seems not otherwise.

A new development, for anyone interested. A video purporting to be by and from the CIA

Highly suspicious!

Firstly, the CIA would not announce itself. An invitation to communicate would be much, much more subtle.

Secondly, since the Russian authorities have complete control of websites in Russia, and blocks those that do not conform to the party demands, how has this ‘CIA’ video managed to go on open release in Russia?

And thirdly, what might the CIA possibly have to gain on war intelligence from ordinary Russians?

Anyone who reads Chinese history would remember Mao Xedong’s 1956 “Let a hundred flowers bloom; let a hundred schools of thought contend” speech. Mao used this to signal what he wanted from the intellectuals of the country, for different and competing ideologies to voice their opinions about the issues of the day. It did not end well for those who did speak out. They revealed themselves only to be severely punished. Whether or not Mao actively intended it as a trap, the dire results remain a graphic lesson on the danger of speaking out.

This new video may well be a piece of trickery by the FSG and Putin’s tech propaganda machine. I truly hope no Russian in good faith responds.