OBR Forecast for State Pension increase

Somehow I think that the amount of State Pension increase will depend on how much the government feels it is reliant upon the pensioner vote when it comes to re-election.

The carrot has been dangled by M Macron. A 4% increase in French state pension has been promised by him should he get re elected.

Quite right too given that this year’s increase was 1.1% when inflation is above 3% and rising.

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I believe they’ve already pledged to return to the ‘triple lock’ next year and the increase is based on inflation at the end of September 2022.

But what about the original triple-lock pledge… they broke that 'cos it suited 'em to do so.

Sadly the government’s “pledge” is only as good/reliable as the weather forecast… :roll_eyes:

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Often the weather forecast is more reliable than governmental pledges. What happened to the pledge about repealing the 15 year rule for voting for example.

They keep saying “it’s coming, just be patient” but since Brexit, most would not countenance voting for the Conservatives ever again, so politically, it suits them not to honour their manifesto pledge.

Agree but it’s a pity it takes an election every five years for it to happen !!

It is supposed to be included in the Election Bill, but I have written to my MP to say that I do not trust Boris Johnson to keep it in and can she keep me informed as to what is happening.

I need to send a reminder. BoJo won’t want all of us who have been affected by Brexit having the vote.

The bill has passed the committee stage in the Lords and now goes to the report stage before a final vote in the H of C.

not if BloJo prorogues Parliament again, as pundits suggest he is on the verge of doing…

I often see you comment about ‘your’ MP however depending on you time in France what chance is there that a UK MP will listen and take note of a French resident, just saying.

Over what Graham?

Who knows what is in the mind of the tin-pot dictator - does he even need an excuse?
I believe the pundits are suggesting a snap GE before he gets hit with personal fines over partygate, the Tories get a severe drubbing in the locals and the cost of living crisis deepens. Expect shifty Sunak to be thrown under the bus any time soon as Johnson promises good times to come and to reverse the increased tax take (which he won’t of course, if re-elected). Sunak is already back-peddling so fast over his wife’s non-dom status and their green card residency in the US whilst he was Chancellor of the Exchequer, you can hear the tyres squealing and smell the burning rubber as far away as Delhi!

I am a new French pensioner and was outraged to discover this. What is the mechanism for calculating the increase each year? I knew about the UK triple-lock and assumed that French system was sure to be at least equally protected against inflation.
At least 5 years ago, I was doing my sums to decide my retirement date. There were so many variables and uncertainties, it was difficult to know how to proceed, but I made 2 assumptions:

  • interest and investments would keep pace with inflation
  • pensions would be inflation linked
    so I could simplify my calculations by ignoring inflation.
    Both assumptions have been confounded already.

‘for the rest of this Parliament’ was said.

Magnanimous of them to actually say they’d honour a promise. Not impressive as in background they’ve kicked off a ‘study’ where it appears they’re basically looking for reasons to get out of it.

I believe they use inflation in September to input to the triple lock formula that sets the increase for the following year. If it’s just the one month of September they take the figure from, don’t be surprised if there’s blip downwards in inflation for that month. The next big slug of fuel price increaes (45% rumoured on top of this April’s increase) is expected in October.

PS I have a lot of time for Sunak. It’s such a breath of fresh air to have a competent Chancellor.

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The start of his job was relatively simple where he was involved with handing out money in all directions for Covid, the difficult part as he is finding out is when he has to increase revenues to partly cover the previous spending. Whichever direction he has turned to recently has caused an uproar.

Yet he has struggled with his own financial affairs.

If you’re going to put yourself up for the most senior political roles you should make sure that you and your close family are ‘squeaky clean’ especially when you’re mega wealthy, he failed to do that and is now tainted for good and has lost all public trust at a time when the majority of the population are being squeezed financially.

I’ve no doubt this has been engineered by Johnson to provide yet more deflection from the ‘partygate’ fallout but it shows yet again how ruthless politics is.

Personally, I think the ‘triple lock’ is wrong and unsustainable long term but it is a ‘vote winner’ so I can’t see any party being brave enough to ditch it.