Re a Brexit....Maybe our status as expats (at least), isn't under threat after all?

It has just been proposed (for the second time) for approval Hilary. Hence the scant info. The Frankfurt exchange wil be the majority sharehlder in the (if approved) joint enterprise.

David,

I have only just heard about the likely merger of the Briish Stock exchange with the German one (how will that work I wonder?).....

There doesn't seem to have been much publicity about this and I am thinking that it may be being 'rushed through' by the 'Financial bods' , just because of the likelihood of a 'Brexit'.....a way of hedging their bets...how could they penalise the British side of things in that event, if they have already been 'joined at the hip ?'....

I agree completely with both you and David’s comments.

" Howard Perry you seem to have a remarkably over simplified view of what French people might be doing in London or anywhere else in the UK, or other EU citizens for that matter".

David, flattery will get you anywhere :-)

But seriously, I agree with everything you say about the interconnectedness of everything (Leave and Remain voters take note) BUT for the long term. I think you have missed my point., which that in the event of a Brexit, governments will have to do something fast to protect this situation before it unravels of its own accord. 2 years after the UK PM submits the UK request to leave, the EU treaties involving UK will automatically lapse unless either the deadline is extended or new arrangements are in place. It is the UK, which will have to act and act fast to fight the uncertainty, which will be orders of magnitude greater than that generated by the referendum. The govt can act fast to stop free movement, but what about the people who are already in the UK? Finding them will be difficult, as the UK has no registration arrangements like mainland countries. In my opinion, the remaining EU-governments will do nothing immediately. They will wait to see what UK will do. It may well turn out that free movement continues either for first 2 years or for the duration of the interim period.

I also think that expat Brits will be treated far better by their host nations than they would be by their country of citizenship, because they have shown their belief in the EU ideals. They won't be not subject to retaliatory action to measures taken by the UK government against their citizens. However, any action to deprive existing practitioners of free movement of their rights will have to be compensated by Britain. I can see UK paying an awful price for access to the free market.

Howard Perry you seem to have a remarkably over simplified view of what French people might be doing in London or anywhere else in the UK, or other EU citizens for that matter. One of the most important points about the EU is reciprocal rights. There are thousands of French people living and working in the UK. Think of EDF and numerous water companies etc. Think of the insurance sector. The are numerous French schools in London (will these have to close down?). How ill the UK economy work without this vast workforce active at every level from high tech, via financials down to picking crops. There just are not enough Brits with the right skills, aptitude, dare I say intelligence (education lacking) or indeed commitment. I ran a small company in London for decades. We depended from, at one end inwards investment to London as it was seen as a place to be, not just for having a good time, but for opportunity, and on a steady stream of people coming to London to get experience of working in British architecture. Of course we employed locals as well but we needed the others and many of them were really excellent workers, Germans, Italians, Poles, you name it. The Brexit boys keep on saying" we will negotiate free trade deals"- OK but the realtive size of the UK market is very small and it's clear that the EU rump will be more interested in emerging markets and will be in direct competition with the exited EU. The London Stock Exchange is about to merge with the German one. Other great British sectors like insurance and motor manufacturing have already done that. How will those cross border links be dealt with? It's likely to be much more complicated than now and surely we were trying to make things more simple. Meanwhile any British company wishing to trade in Europe will clearly still have to comply with EU norms. Are there going to be new UK norms for the UK alone? It's all going backwards.

"do people really think that The French government wouldn't do all that it can to protect its citizens?"

I think the French government would like French expats in London to move back to France in order to boost its tax revenues and probably economy generally, as most are likely of working age. Brexit would be the perfect encouragement. It doesn't need to do anything.

Do you think the UK government would like British expats to move back to the UK? Many are retirees. Those of working age would likely stay or migrate elsewhere. The answer to the question in UK case is probably No, but I doubt the current UK government has thought that far aheadk, as it is hoping for Bremain.

For Brexit, its in UK interests to rush to avoid mass inward migration of people who will become a burden on the state and contribute to housing shortage. They will become the new immigrants :-). However, they will be low on the priority list because free trade agreement will be top of the agenda.

"There are no gunboats."

They usually get scrapped in Defence reviews. :-)

Still there is always Trident.

Drop your tariffs or else? :-)

Robert,

Thanks. I didn't understand the calculations. Here are some more links for beer and other grocery items for UK and Germany. I think the German beer prices quoted are low or only apply to groceries, as I recall in 1971 paying DM 1.20 for 0.2l beer in pub and DM 0.60 for .5l bottle from the beer machines at work. UK beer prices are surely for pint bought at pub. I can recall half pint of mild costing 1s 1d in 1967.

http://www.norfolkpubs.co.uk/utility/pob.htm

http://www.was-war-wann.de/historische_werte/bierpreise.html

and just to muddy the water even more

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jul/26/uk-cities-food-prices-survey

Of course in order to obtain a true comparison over such a long period of time, it is necessary to take into account the relative inflation rates in the two countries. That which cost £1 in the UK in 1966, costs £17.50 today, whilst that which cost the equivalent of €1 in Germany in 1966, costs €3.75 today. The compounded inflation rate from 1966 to date in the UK is 4.66 times higher than that in Germany over the same period.

So then, whilst accepting that £1 in 1966 bought €5.62, it is clear that said 1966 £1 is today properly represented by £17.50 (when appropriately index linked), which at the rate of €1.29 to the Pound, makes a total of €22.57 Euros. Therefore it can be seen that the equivalent of our 1966 £1 today (£17.50), actually buys 4.01 times the number of Euros today as it did back in 1966.

That which cost €5.62 in Germany in 1966, costs €21.10 today.

Therefore it can be seen that there has actually been NO depreciation of the buying power of the Pound Sterling in Germany at all since 1966, but rather that there has actually been an increase in buying power of the Pound in Germany of 6.96% since 1966.

Now that we have corrected for comparative inflation, we see that the previously alleged 77.1% loss has in fact been a 6.9% gain.

My thanks to http://inflation.stephenmorley.org/

and http://www.lawyerdb.de/Inflationrate.aspx for supplying the relevant historical compounded inflation rates for the two countries from 1966 to 2016.

Oh, only 77% :slight_smile:

Ok, then, what I meant was that the pound is worth now 4.35 times (435%) less than it was then (5.62 divided by 1.29) x 100. or, if you will 23.9% (less than 1 quarter) of its value then.

If you need further humuliation going further back, I know that Google can provide it but there is more material to read than I have time to digest at the moment.

However, I am curious as to when ie year or decade within 19th or 20th century, the Pound sterling commenced its decline. It might even be before 1914.

Oh come along Sir please ! The correct mathematical calculation of your figures gives a result of 77.1% and NOT 435%.

100 minus [(2.52 divided by 11) multiplied by 100]

Jonathan, An excellent point. I've been following exchange rates, prices and to some extent, incomes, between UK and Germany, since 1966, the year of my first Sterling to DM exchange transaction, when I received over DEM 11 for 1 Pound. At the fixed exchange 1 = DEM 1.95583 , the equivalent would be 5.62, so @EUR 1.29 the Pound would be worth DEM 2.52. In 50 years the pound has depreciated against the Euro by 435%. Parity is in sight. Which currency is in a mess? Comparisons of prices, incomes and standard of living are even more stark.

Trying to reply to John Scully but can;t hit the right button! Sorry John, French unions do not modernise in order to improve productivity, yes you are right about slave labour in Dubai, I've lived and worked there too but Britains costs and regulation out of Europe would give a significant advantage over EU regulated manufacturing Plus the UK is a natural tourist shopping magnet. I did not say it would work but gave it as an example of lateral thinking which does not exist in any form in the EU. I've also lived and worked in Scandinavia for 7 years and Iran for 5 years so I find it somewhat patronising to be called a little Englander which thank you John you have not labelled me, though doubtless others do. I find the little Englanders to be the ones who cannot survive without Angela holding their hands.

I'm going to stir things up again by putting fwd N Farage for a Knighthood because but for his ability to absorb abuse the voice of around 50 per cent of the UK electorate would be unheard, can anyone deny that? I suppose an athlete who can run a microsecond faster than another is far more deserving even if he or she is later found to have been on drugs.

Neither HK or Dubai are manufacturing centres Jeremy and I’ve lived in Dubai, a large part of it’s success is based on almost slave third world labour, not a route the UK can follow. Most cars today are built by robots anyway. I’ve no doubt a deal could be done with French unions if Nissan moved here, but here isn’t the threat. It could easly be an east europen contry with low pay rates and flexible labour laws. Honda and Toyota will move too.

I'll tell you why, because the French cannot make cars economically in France because they are in a mess with their labour laws. How about thinking of the UK as an offshore Hong Kong/ Dubai to Europe. I'm not saying it will work but it's an example of Brexit opportunity.

I agree that JCB and Dyson are good companies Jeremy and that Nissan is a good example of what UK manufacturing is capable of. But it’s also a good example, in my opinion, of a company that will leave the UK after Brexit. Nissan Sunderland exports to the EU http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b2445b02-bec9-11e5-846f-79b0e3d20eaf.html#axzz42VvNKK4Z and Brxit will disrupt that.

BTW Renault owns 43% of Nissan, The French Government owns 20% of Renault and Nissan owns 15% of Renault.

David,

Did you catch the 'Daily Politics' today ?.....

...including interview with and film featuring "Committed Europhile to arch Eurosceptic" ...Mark Littlewood, now' Director of the Institute of Economic Affairs'.......worth catching..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b073m351/daily-politics-10032016

Not at all Hilary, I found the video interesting.

Sorry about the deleted videos...(and the 9 mins).........

.I'll take the time to check, next time.....