Second Wave Concerns?

How lovely Jane, enjoy.

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Numbers still going up (2846 today) - apart from masks etc what are the French currently doing? (took my eye of that ball a bit)

That seems about right for Gironde = shame!

At the Brico yesterday they had cleared away the swimming/paddling pool area to make space for wood burning stoves!

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3 weeks ago the numbers were 600-800, last week 1200-1800 this weekend 2000-2400 and this week 2400-2800. In towns most shops masks are obligatory but not so in-forced in local restaurants we’ve stopped going to restaurants with my restaurant tickets from work as they are literally packed to the gunnels most of the restaurants have added more tables as so many tourists this year and social distancing masks WTF are they?

I do have grave concerns…

Of course, numbers will go up… the more they test… the more cases they find… I understand that…

but this should make folk realize that OK… “You might feel alright… but You might be passing covid onto other folk” … and some of these daft get-togethers… or anywhere where masks, social distancing, hygiene etc are not properly observed… just put everyone in danger…

If we have another major outbreak… I am not sure how Health Services etc will cope… :thinking:

Still going up official figures for today.
Selon ces chiffres, ce sont très exactement 3.310 nouveaux diagnostics positifs qui ont été enregistrés, ainsi que 17 nouveaux foyers de cas groupés (« clusters »).

A family have just arrived for 10 day holiday… from all over the place… they do this every year.

It’s extended family, cousins etc… 11 of them… and this year they’ve come for one last get-together as the family property (originally great grandma’s) has now been sold.

Heaven knows how they will fit in… and there can’t be any distancing …

I’ve chatted from the other side of the road… (we know them quite well) …but I don’t want to get any closer… I can’t figure out how they will cope/comply with all the hygiene stuff…

especially worrying, when they mentioned “all the others” will be joining them for a party… aaargh.

They obviously have no concerns whatsoever…

You need to be clear what you mean by “test positive” - that’s not 6% who could pass on Covid to another person.

There is an ongoing survey in the UK which involves testing the general population - at the moment the estimate is 1 in 900 have coronavirus at any one time - up quite a bit from the low point in June.

With the caveat that cases in the UK and also in France are not spread evenly so the following is a bit suspect the simplest way of extrapolating the UK survey figure is to note that (for a broadly same size population) the French official new cases are running about 3x the UK ones so the incidence in France should be about 1 in 300 people.

If there is a 1 in 300 chance of an individual being infected and you mingle with 300 individuals then the chance there there is 1 affected person in the group is 63%, if it is 500 people then the chance of encountering a person who actually has Covid rises to 81%

So most of the 18 to 30 people you mentioned would not “test positive” on PCR for active infection; they *might* test positive for antibodies due to past infection.

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An interesting figure but completely useless without further context.

For one thing we do not know what is meant by “test positive”.

I assume that the airlines are using one of the rapid antibody tests as these can produce results within 10 minutes (I think the fastest DNA/RNA tests are still in the lab setting and need 60-90 minutes for the results).

These detect IgG and IgM antibodies - there is a time course to the appearance of antibodies as follows.

IgM (green) is the “acute” antibody - if you have detectable IgM you have or have recently had Covid - you are not necessarily capable of passing the infection on, but could do so.

IgG (red) appears later - if you are IgG positive but not IgM positive you had Covid in the past and almost certainly not capable of passing on the infection.

So - is that positive for IgM or IgG?

Second - 12, but out of how many; vastly different if it is a 737 class aircraft than a 747 for instance (the claim was long haul flights).

Thirdly “up to”, so are there flights with just one positive passenger, no positive passengers? - without knowing how many people were tested or results across multiple flights you have no clue as to the percentage or how statistically reliable the figure is.

So, we have an unknown percentage of an unknown population testing “positive” for something to do with covid but we don’t know exactly what.

Brilliant!

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But @anon88169868 - you seem to be missing the point throwing your facts around!

(thanks for the detailed reply BTW)

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@anon88169868 Thank you for the explanation. :+1:

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Interesting article in the Economist. Three free articles a month!

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