Situation as at 19/20 August and beyond

My arm has been less sore this year than others, I had a couple of hours the evening I had it done where I felt dreadful ,a good nights sleep and I have been fine

My wife & I had ours a couple of weeks ago. No sore arm or fever for either of us.

I was advised by my consultant to wait until at least the end of the month, so my immunity takes hold fully in mid-November. Basically there’s very little flu around yet, and usually doesn’t get going for another month.

Her view (which she accepts is not fully proven) is that for some people the immunity weakens over time and doesn’t last 100%. In fact she suggested I think about vaccinating again in several months if it turns out to be a bad year.

Another bad day…

Here are the French departments to be subject to the new curfew measures:

Ain, Alpes-Maritimes, Ardèche, Ardennes, Ariège, Aube, Aveyron, Bas-Rhin, Calvados, Corse du Sud, Côte-d’Or, Drôme, Gard, Haute-Corse, Haute-Loire, Haute-Savoie, Haute-Vienne, Hautes-Alpes, Hautes-Pyrénées, Ille-et-Vilaine, Indre-et-Loire, Jura, Loiret, Lozère, Maine-et-Loire, Marne, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Oise, Pas-de-Calais, Puy-de-Dôme, Pyrénées-Atlantiques, Pyrénées-Orientales, Saône-et-Loire, Savoie, Tarn, Tarn-et-Garonne, Var, and Vaucluse. Further afield, French Polynesia will also be affected by the curfew.

No, I don’t seem to have had any bother in the end - even the usual sore arm 24 hours later wasn’t as noticeable. Possibly because of the severe pain on the other side from this ****ing disc prolapse :frowning:

I had mine for the first time ever this year and suffered absolutely no adverse effects. Not even a sore arm as the nurse had forewarned.
However, the process has raised a small concern which those more knowledgeable of affairs medical may like to reassure me upon.
When I received my vaccine I bled. The nurse said that this was not usual but not unheard of. It’s not usual in my experience and I cannot now rid myself of the thought that maybe the vaccine ‘washed out’ and I am no more protected than I was previously.

41k :frowning:

It is clear that 41k now is not the same as 41k would have been in the spring, it is also clear that France, like the UK, wishes to avoid a national lockdown but if it wishes to control Covid that might be the only option - ideally you’d find a level of restrictions which allowed people to get on with some activity but would keep infections steady or slightly declining. The UK certainly does not seem to have found that sweet spot but watching the UK and France I’m wondering if we actually have any control. Covid is behaving like a winter respiratory virus and rates naturally fall in the warm weather, what if we didn’t “win” back in April, what if spring simply arrived?

Given that we know that cases might not be the best metric (though the trend is still useful data1) I’d suggest keeping an eye on hospital admissions and deaths if you want some measure of meaningful comparison with the spring. Admissions are at a similar rate, or just above, mid-March when France went into lockdown, deaths are lower but not radically so - it’s about 2/3rds the rate that it was in the spring, for comparable numbers of admissions - that’s consistent with improvements in management since March/April but does not suggest any change in virulence.

1] Cases currently doubling every 14 days approx - which is faster than they were going up before France’s odd pause.

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I see my own commune has pulled off the feat of having ‘zero cases or less’ in the last 7 days!

That’s excellent :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

How do you have less than zero?

It’s just a blip of statististics of course…

Au 19 octobre, le nombre de nouveaux cas pour 100.000 habitants sur les sept derniers jours dans cette commune se situait dans la fourchette 0-10
Cette commune compte 1271 habitants. Cela représente donc 0 cas identifié(s) ou moins sur sept jours.

It reminds me of a discussion I had in a European Social Fund project with a local authority from northern Sweden - they had difficulty getting the funding because Brussels rounded down population densities - which meant theirs was officially zero inhabitants per square kilometre.

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Another record over the 50k now! Stay safe peeps.
Covid : la France passe la barre des 50.000 contaminations en 24 heures

La France a battu dimanche un nouveau record d’infections au coronavirus détectées en 24 heures, avec 52.010 cas positifs signalés. Toujours en Europe, l’Espagne et l’Italie ont annoncé de nouvelles restrictions pour lutter contre la propagation de l’épidémie, particulièrement vive sur le Vieux continent.
La France enregistre un nouveau record de cas. 116 décès supplémentaires liés au Covid-19 ont été recensés. Le taux de positivité des tests est en hausse. Il s’établit désormais à 17%.

Doubling every 14 days roughly - UK on about 40% that cases so about 17 days behind (not 4 weeks as I heard in the media today).

Cases (or rather positive tests) can’t be directly compared to earlier in the year but hospitalisations can and it currently stands at approx 50% of the peak in April - I’d expect that to be equalled in about 2 weeks and probably surpassed. Care is better so I’d expect mortality to only be 60% of that in the spring so you need about 50% more hospitalisations before deaths overtake the numbers we had then - but that means if things continue as they are we’ll probably reach that point in 4 weeks and we will then still have 3-4 months to run before the arrival of spring

I honestly don’t see how anything short of full lockdown will slow things before spring and the arrival of warmer weather - in either France or the UK.

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Thanks Paul, I enjoy reading your analyses.
It’s getting very scary well before :jack_o_lantern: not long before the 100k…

Lockdown is a political response to a medical problem & is a crudely blunt instrument that has enormous economic consequences.

We need a medical answer to this medical problem & that is Test, Trace & Isolate. We need tens or hundreds of thousands of tracers & testing capacity of 10 million a day with results in 12 hours, We need tens or hundreds of thousands of testers knocking on doors & visiting workplaces etc

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All provided with Covid-protected transport, police escorts in case of affray, Tazers, and full-body PPE. Presumably they will work in pairs, one to knock the door to gain access, another to watch the back door for fugitives…

It’s another oven-ready cinch!

Glad you find it funny Peter

Glad you’re glad too, Eddie! :hugs:

I can see that you, too, have given some passing thought to the on-the-ground practicalities of tracing and ensuring isolation of contacts.

It’s a gas! :joy:

So great all knowing one what do you suggest is done?