Agree but so far relatively draconian lockdown measures have been the only ones shown1 to be effective (Sweden notwithstanding).
TTI has not worked in the UK - it has been an utter shambles, but it doesn’t seem to have made a lot of impact in France either. Mini lockdowns in various parts of the UK have not worked either and we can see that lack of decisive action and dithering around with ineffective measures harms the economy more in the long run, not less.
Interestingly came across this analysis of the French situation - rather more detailed but broadly the same conclusions as my own.
1] Well, either lockdown or the arrival of warmer weather. To an extent hope that it was lockdown as we can repeat that; warm weather won't be here until April which will make it a grim winter indeed.
Sounds like there were a lot of meetings today for ‘them in charge’ and looks like Macron will be making some sort of announcement tomorrow. The article discusses the older kids not going back after the holidays. I think they have been a bit silly, it would have been so easy to have a total lockdown over the holidays for minimal disruption and potentially a circuit breaker.
I’m still waiting for your suggestions Peter as to how you think the situation should be dealt with
Before you jump in again I have thought about the practicalities of an intense track and trace, I don’t see why you are so sure that people wouldn’t co operate
I doubt very much whether any country will be able to recruit and train such a large number of testers in any reasonable timeframe. Furthermore, as Peter as alluded to, these testers will need transport and quite possibly need to operate in pairs.
I would have thought that a two week total lockdown during the school holidays might have had slowed the spread.
Regarding mortality statistics, I wonder whether these are lower because the more vulnerable have already succumbed earlier in the year??
It certainly isn’t difficult to do the swabs., training wouldn’t be that hard and there is a pool of people currently not working who would have the time.There are already protocols in place with the census that is carried out every ten years
TBH I am playing devils advocate to a degree I think it would be difficult to to a track and trace to the extent originally suggested although that would be ideal. However I don’t think there would be as much resistance as Peter seems to
Eddie I haven’t referred to resistance except perhaps in my burlesque and undisguisedly laconic representation of test, trace and isolate which the NHS scheme pursued through a bank of call-centre operatives working, it seems merely from a algorithmic script that they were trained to use like vacuum-cleaner salespeople.
You’re clearly an intelligent man who will have worked out the tracking and effective isolation of infectious disease requires properly trained and experienced public health personnel with a good grasp of public health principles and practice. Not a bunch of novices with no proper resources working single-handed, unsupervised and relying on a script.
I’m not a public health expert but I have been involved in their (public health cadres’) training (in Africa and UK) which takes two years and involves robust technical backup and readily accessible resources in support, including transport and specialist PPE (when working with actively and dangerously infectious subjects)
It was a burlesque to underline the realities of public health work which (as Dame Dido and her sponsors have discovered) is complex and dangerous work, requiring sound knowledge of principles of infectious disease control and te psychology of confrontation.
Even "knocking the front door’ requires careful planning if you give it a moment’s thought, Eddie.
Have you ever done work of this kind yourself? I shall be glad to hear of your own background in the public health sphère.
Without giving to much away I haven’t worked in Public Health,but I have worked in enforcement,which has involved knocking on the doors of people who definitely don’t want to answer
Well that experience would be transferable to a public health role, minus the enforcement element. And I expect you may have worked in pairs, for reasons of safety and diplomacy, I suspect. And with back-up resources at least on hand by phone.
And you will know already that Covid-19 requires personnel to be fully protected to prevent personal contamination. Imagine the effect of that on children or other susceptible persons in a household…
The people in Whitehall seem to have had no conception of the nature of the task they were undertaking and unwilling to acknowledge of public health resources available to local government, because (a) they aren’t technocrats they’re politicians; and (b) public health isn’t “sexy” like shiny hospitals seem to be, and has been grievously under-invested for decades.
It sounds like you must have been involved in some very rough areas,for all the aggression you are taking about, if the general public is so anti how do Health Visitors,Midwives etc cope? Although I imagine it will be very different in Africa. Perhaps that explains our differences in perception,the vast majority of people I know would co operate if not actually welcome these actions
I am not talking about aggression in these recent posts Eddie. I am talking about expected reaction to being confronted with a requirement to self-isolate, including the practalities of whole households being quarantined, or vulnerable individuals.
How do you imagine the personnel will be dressed when they “knock on the door”? Will they walk up the street, or cycle up, in full PPE ? Or will they wear it, like Superman, under their everyday clothing and tear that off with a flourish when over the threshold.
A comparison with midwives and Health Visitors is spurious. That is fully consensual and involves autonomous choice by the patient, which is respected by the practitioner. The relationship is built up carefully and incrementally over a period of months, and does not start with an unexpected knock on the door.
I cannot accept that my perspective on this topic is distorted, Eddy. I would bet that a large majority of PH personnel would agree with it. But suit yourself what you believe. It’s a free debate after all.
Sorry Peter complete wires crossed here I thought you were referring to people being swabbed,contacts traced etc not the self isolation aspect
Having said that I do think that self isolation should be better enforced
ADDED I don’t think people will be knocking on doors dressed in PPE telling people they have to self isolate The contact will largely be SMS etc
That’s why the current system is a shambles and, as it stands, has no validity as a preventive public health measure.
The sole purpose of test, trace and isolate is to prevent the spread of infection. Unless people willingly and scrupulously isolate themselves and their households, and can be professionally and holistically supported to do so, the system is as effective as a wet bed sheet flapping on the line in a rainstorm.
It is manifestly obvious that Johnson and Hancock have no idea what they are doing. They were app-struck from the beginning when the likes of Serco lifted their skirts. God help the rest of us is all I can say!
But that is the problem - for too many, those on zero hours contracts, the self employed, those earning less than £120 a week - 14 days off work means 14 days without pay. The incentive is not to isolate, or not to get tested in the first place.
. Does it ? 