I'm sure we're all aware of UKIP's unprecedented success in the UK local elections, with their emphasis on the EU and immigration. They have achieved almost a quarter of the vote, in many constituencies knocking the main parties off of their perches and losing their deposits.
I am deeply heartened by this, not because it's UKIP but because I had given up on the Brits ever getting political and attempting to claim their country back. Is this the start of something new in politics?
The 'people' have sent a very clear message to the government, they are outlining their concerns about European Union membership and uncontrolled immigration. Many of those questioned after voting also mentioned the Abbu Quttada debacle and their fears about the European court of human rights.
Can this phenomenon be dismissed as a 'protest vote' or are the Brits turning Right?
True Ben. The Liberal Democrats still carry the memory of people who consider themselves 'real liberals' despite the merger SDP and Liberals to form them in 1988. The fact they have moved to the 'right' of old established liberalism is also seen a heritage of Roy Jenkin's moving from moderate Labour toward a rightwing position before the 'Gang of Four' formed the SDP. The SDP effect is how people see any form of catalyst in the system in the UK. The actual face-offs you describe are less likely than here. For one thing, there are identifiable differences between party ideologies. Like the rest of Europe, socialism has been abandoned in all but name and has been replaced by state capitalism (PS now in France, doing in very badly at that) that is competing with enterprise capitalism which we see well illustrated in the UK whereby the conservatives are privatising everything possible, giving tax advantages to the already very wealthy and much of the time are in consultation with large corporations on how to run the country. Neither system is popular, elections are gradually about choosing which is the least unpopular at the time of an election. It can be see in PS/UMP here, SPD/CDU in Germany, etc. The catalyst parties are also there everywhere and act, as you say, the fuse that blows the system quite often.
I guess the UKIP is UK's version of the French FN. Surely not in their intellectual heritage but as far as their position in the political landscape. Scorned by the traditional political parties and usually on the loosing end because of the electoral system being not based on percentage of votes. In the end these parties will, under those circumstances, always be the turning stone for the established ones. If ever there's a UKIP- Cp or UKIP-LP showdown the the CP or LP will win. Same in France with a FN-UMP or FN-PS situation.
Maybe it's time to change over to the "coalition" model instead of winner-takes-all. Not because I'm a great fan of either UKIP or FN, but I deeply feel that a lot of voters are being coerced into a vote they normally didn't want to cast. UKIP (and FN for that matter) are to often put aside as being populist, of no consequence etc, just because of the "winner-takes-all" system. In some insignificant district a UKIP-member might win, but that doesn't mean anything at all in the greater picture of the country's politics.
@ Brian: a political party may act as catalyst to the process and be of no further political influence afterwards, but they'll still be remembered as the fuse that blew up a system, no? (at the moment I wonder how come that the UKIP has as many seats in the European Parliament as the LP?) ;-)
Strange day following this one up. UKIP are going to revise their proposed immigration limit, they are unsure how many but well up from the 50,000 a year proposed. The one Tory who has come out and praised them is Michael Gove. That will win them a lot of support (not). Along with Osborne, Duncan-Smith and Paterson he is so unpopular with the electorate he could probably lose them an election single-handedly.
The BNP lost their one and only council seat even though they put up a record 99 candidates. Now they are asking their members to 'procreate' to increase support. Across the board UK politics gets more bizarre by the day and we mostly tend to find it grim here!
Psephologically it is not very meaningful. Voting patterns in most of Europe show mid-term and local elections generally as a platform for public protest. General elections tend to see reversion to 'traditional' parties. In the 1980s the SDP heavyweights Jenkins, Owen, Williams and Rodgers attracted much the same type of local election support as UKIP are now, except that UKIP on the one hand has no politicians with an established track record and has had too many extremists join - yes, so too have the Tories and Labour. Partisan alignment tends to carry over generations and is still dominant so come 2015 it will be almost certainly back to normal, whatever that is.
Reality is that the Bullingdon Boys have favoured the very wealthy too much, turned too many things against the majority and are undermining welfare state, education, the already dodgy NHS and the recent proposal to privatise postal services has gone down like a lead balloon.
Personally, I am glad I am not there. Among the choices for a government there is none I would choose. If anything, and reading the Scottish press yesterday, this result has just boosted the independence referendum support. I had adopted a view that next year it would not go in favour of independence but within the next decade a second referendum almost certainly would. Now I'll watch to see how Scottish Labour supporters go over to the pro vote. If UKIP contribute to the end of the union then their gratitude will be in the form of them being abandoned en masse.