The Trump Effect

Social, economic and political developments since November 5th, 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/

Having just watched Season 1 of Downton Abbey for the first time, which touched upon the horrors of the first world war, I’m putting this in the plus column for Trump

1 Like

Given that DT wasn’t born until after WWII, that association may seem a bit opaque to some of us, perhaps you’d be good enough to unpack it a tad…

Hi Mark, I don’t know if you’ve watched Downton Abbey, neither had I till a fortnight ago when they started showing on normal TV again from season one. I know everyone else has seen it, and I am behind the times - anyhow, it depicts upstairs/downstairs life between 1910 and 1920 and how the First World War impacted it. It starts like a soap opera and describes how the war gradually intrudes on the hitherto bucolic lives of the characters. It begins as a patriotic rallying call, then an inconvenience and eventually, their loved ones start returning badly injured or dying or not returning at all. It’s as though people were waking up from a dream. The injuries and the impact on human life are horrific. You can see why the First World War was such a pivotal point in history, the ‘end of innocence’ as it’s called. Sorry I’m going on a bit, but it reminded me of what’s going on for the people in the Ukraine war, many of whom had nothing to do with it but have been dragged for various reasons. Nearly half a million people have been killed so far, and it needs to stop. In his usual swaggering way, Donald Trump said he will stop this war on day one. He will force them to compromise whether they are ready or not. If this comes to pass, I thank him for this act of humanity.

3 Likes

TBH I can’t see Putin compromising on anything, let alone ‘in one day’ with his geriatric US fanboy.

2 Likes

well let’s see. but Putin has already hinted that he’ll settle for the 4 Russian speaking regions he currently controls. Trump will tell Zelensky that’s the deal, live with it because the money supply is ending. It’s over. And those poor bastards on the front line can go home to their families

3 Likes

In time, he’ll want more. It’s naive to think that would be the end of the conflict.

2 Likes

Well that’s certainly the narrative of the ‘forever war’ doctrine. We are forever at war with East Asia, as Orwell put it in 1984.

1 Like

Phew! A new Trump thread. Just in time as I was about to withdraw from the forum.

4 Likes

Good to hear Ally, stick around.

It is not wise to learn history from works of fiction.

2 Likes

Zelensky’s suggestion includes NATO membership for Ukraine, Putin won’t go for that because that’s his biggest fear.

1 Like

Not a very convincing argument in that they speak Russian - should UK “settle” to take back USA because they (sort of) speak English? (although I am not sure many in UK would want it!)

(Updated due to being badly worded)

1 Like

It has been said before that those regions are not completely Russian speaking and in any case there have been many Russian speakers there who have said they certainly do not want to become part of Russia.

Similarly, as has been said above, would England happily become an American state, or even the USA decide to reverse independance from Britain? I don’t think so.

But even more relevant to that view is the fact that in the Republic of Ireland:

English (98%) Irish (RoI: 39.8% claim some ability to speak Irish) Ulster Scots (0.3%)

So no doubt according to you @mikep, an English army would be welcomed with open arms as they marched in to liberate the former Irish colony. I don’t think so.

But that is precisely the issue in Ukraine, the former colonial power using force to re-colonise a former colony. Outrageous.

5 Likes

It’s not about language, it’s not even particularly about territory; it’s about natural resources. Ukraine has vast reserves of coal, iron ore, natural gas, oil, and uranium, and other stuff, precious metals and so on. The US and Russia are vying to gain maximum access to them. The reason why a deal will now be struck is because Trump won the US election and he views the situation in Ukraine as a business negotiation, albeit with a military angle. Russia and the US will reach a compromise and the fighting will stop. It doesn’t really matter what Zelensky wants.

If your sole source of information about Ukraine is the mainstream media, you won’t hear about this. You will simply be told that the war must continue because Putin is a monster who mustn’t be appeased, that the Russians will see any attempt at compromise as weakness, so on and so on.

4 Likes

Both countries already have much greater natural resources of their own that are easier to exploit without a massive loss of life or European territory (not that would bother Trump).

Putin’s push into Ukraine isn’t being drive by economics, if anything it’s an economic disaster for Russia.

You’re arguing that:

  1. each country already has enough natural resources so why would they want more?

  2. Trump has a disregard for the loss of life?

Er, yes…

So you have a direct line to the Kremlin and the White House then? You must have, to accuse us mere mortals of only believing what we are told by publicly accessible media. Oh how you must feel so smug to have knowledge that we lesser beings can only dream about…

I am surprised that you have the time to inform us here of the real-world politic - what with your finger on the pulse of Russian and American decision making.