The Ukraine situation, where will it end?

Interesting. It wouldn’t surprise me at all and I wonder are some of those around Putin are wondering the same? If he has been suckered it won’t sit well with his fabricated macho persona.

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You beat me to it! :slight_smile:

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Well Sweden and Finland are joining NATO?

Not if Turkey has anything to do with it :frowning:

They’ll be fixed (bribed?). Anyway, Shitty Patel can find the Kurds sheltering in Finland and Sweden a new home in Rwanda if necessary.

But I thought she was called Pritti because she is so beautiful - but no come to think of it you are probably correct.

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Beauty is more than skin deep Mat, isn’t it? She’s rotten within. I really believe that BTW, I think she’s a horrible, horrible person without an ounce of humanity or empathy for those less well off that herself.

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Not too sure about this - Turkey has lots of links with Russia too - and a few bones to pick with Biden.

EDIT: In The Guardian today (19/5) - “Erdoğan’s target is as likely to be the US as Finland and Sweden. Turkey’s 2017 purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defence system turned it into a pariah in the US and led to Ankara being kicked out of the F-35 stealth fighter jet programme. The recent rumours, denied by Moscow, that Vladimir Putin might visit Ankara in the near future were probably another signal from Ankara that it has cards to play.”

Personally, I agree with E Macron - there’s no point in “poking the bear” to humiliate him and I think Ukraine’s foreign minister is being disingenuous towards France.

I agree, backing him into a corner would not end well. I think the West and NATO have balanced the support and the risk well so far. Thank goodness. It’s not easy dealing with an irrational, murdering dictator.

Dare I say it, even before the invasion commenced I noted a certain arrogance and intransigence in some Ukrainian politicians that were interviewed. No doubt this “strength of character” has contributed to their valiant defence of their Country. But I also think it prevents them for seeing the wider picture (as I suppose it would any of us if we had our backs to the wall). This is sadly an existential crises for the Ukrainian region of Donbass but it must not be allowed to escalate to an existential crisis for the whole of the World.

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I suspect if you’re Ukrainian and you have been pushed into the corner so hard that your back has an imprint of the bricks, it’s hard not to want Russia to experience the same thing. It’s inevitable that either Ukraine loses larger swathes of land than it already had or that Russia is defeated soundly on the battlefield and has to leave in humiliation. The opportunity for amicable options passed a long time ago.

Probably correct, but while the former is regrettable, the second could see us all fried. At least that’s how I see it. I think a humiliated Putin could be even more dangerous than the madman Putin we have today. If he’s nothing to loose…

Obviously for poor Ukraine their catastrophe is paramount but Western leaders have to keep a balance. This is why Ukraine keeps saying that if they go down then Poland, etc. will be next. I don’t really buy that. I can’t imagine Putin attacking NATO, but a few months ago I couldn’t imaging a war in Europe.

I don’t know what others here think?

I am worried that if we give Putin an inch he’ll take a mile.

Yes, it’s a tricky balance.

I posted this in another thread, but worth repeating here I think. Assuming he doesn’t care very much about the loss of lives, Putin has at present no incentive to back down - indeed it’s all going rather well from his point of view…

There is no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that’s hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance… In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021. When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy.

Difficult as it is to swallow, I agree with conclusion. The trick IMO is to minimise the human suffering in the meantime.

In the end if Russia is not defeated and forced off Ukrainian soil then it will hold the world to ransom for grain. Human suffering could be minimised by telling Zelenskyy that there would be no more support and they must roll over for Russia, but after the balls-up/humiliation of Afghanistan that seems unlikely, quite apart from being a morally hideous thing to do.

And also if Russia is able to acquire extensive territory in Ukraine they will surely not stop there for long. This is very much a rock/hard place situation, but the only good solution for the future is a sound defeat of Russia and a return to the pre-invasion situation. And that will require many more deaths, which is also morally hideous.

I don’t see a way in which Ukraine does well out of this, because even if they gave in now I’m pretty sure there would be mass deportation and native Russians will be resettled there to Russ-ise the territory.

I think they will take and declare as Russian about a third of eastern Ukraine and possibly negotiate thereafter and keep it. Until next time.

And next time they attack a weaker, smaller Ukraine, which would not be allowed to join NATO as part of the deal.

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