I think you are right Susannah, Putin is dangerous and has been for a very long time. I also think the West’s response to that danger has been very disappointing. As I keep wittering on about Putin was a known danger and our leaders walked us into this disaster. Now they seem determined to escalate it. There has to be better ways of dealing with one mad man then throwing lives and weapons at him. That’ so 20th century.
I think we fail to hold our leaders (and probably all our politicians) sufficiently to account. As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, our under use of lampposts (metaphorical or real) for the likes of Johnson and Trump means we, the citizens, do not learn from our mistakes.
I’m hoping that at least one lesson may have been learned in this debacle, and that may be letting go of the naive idea that ambitious and rising powers can be made ‘friendly’ by inclusion. Unfortunately, this strategy is seen by aggressors as weakness and an opportunity to ‘poison’, as it were, from within.
Power only recognises and defers to superior power. I’m afraid that Roosevelt’s “Speak softly and carry a big stick” was right on the money. Mankind has not yet evolved much/any further that we can say “Never again”
I agree with what you say about putin: we have (partly) ourselves to blame for not having stood up to him earlier. But - as Susannah implies - his mindset is completely different to ours, he understands power and being in power completely differently, and (absent any better solution: the floor is yours!) we have to stand up to him militarily when he has invaded another European country.
Indeed we do, but I see that things having come to this pass as failure of our leaders for decades, with particular low spots in 2008 and 2014. Concentrating on the invasion last year and the continuing situation lets them off the hook. No matter how well they think (or we) may think they have responded since the invasion, the blood of those that have died is on their and their predecessors hands IMO. Many may say that it is Putin’s fault and he has caused this, but it’s not. There will always be Putins, or Hitlers or Vlad the Impalers. What I expect from our leaders is to prevent war, not to perform well in one.
One, of many, concern now is the not so surreptitious but self aggrandising rise of erstwhile Putin attack chef, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Founder of the private military company, the Wagner group, whose troops fight alongside the Russian Army, the war in Ukraine has created a dangerous competitor to Putin’s absolutist power.
Last fall, Yevgeny Nuzhin, a former Russian prisoner who defected to Ukraine after being recruited by the Wagner group and ended up back in Russia after a prisoner swap, was killed with a sledgehammer. A video of this massacre emerged in November and was most likely intended as a warning to all future deserters.
Surprisingly, this barbarity has a lot of fans. Stores in Russia began to sell “Wagner Sledgehammers,” as well as souvenirs and car stickers with Wagner symbols. Mr. Prigozhin, who put out a statement supporting Mr. Nuzhin’s killing, became somewhat of a folk hero.
This Prigozhin, if he succeeds Putin, is an even more twisted and venal character we may come to bitterly regret.
Another reason Russia’s expansionist behaviour must be halted. Now.
Based on Russian behaviour since the Soviet collapse I just don’t buy this expansionist argument. How many “interventions” has the US made in the same period? Are we to forget the mass misery and chaos they created in the M/E? Afghanistan, another US disaster, albeit with origins during the Soviet era. IMHO, US foreign policy has caused far more harm than illusory Russian expansion. But I’m up against all the Western media propaganda on that, where facts don’t count Not easy to fight them when your only platform is SF
The only explanation I can offer you John is that the ones you mention are ‘interventions’, a reaction to a particular perceived threat, quite different to an expansion of territory especially in view of the fact that Putin stated quite clearly that Ukraine wasn’t a real country and always had been part of Russia. Imperialism, no more no less.
I don’t think the US expressed any such imperialist intentions towards the ME or Afghanistan, unless of course you might consider the client state outrages of Israel being that. But I don’t.
Going further back in time, even the threat the Americans felt from Cuba in '62 did not result in a fullscale land grabbing invasion. The ‘Bay of Pigs’ was a hasty and ill-advised failure probably more to do with Cuban exiles and their internal politics.
That’s certainly not true in Iraq David, fabricated threat more like. I’m of a generation that grew up thinking the US were the good guys. From John Wayne to Donna Reed, all good wholesome stuff. Then of course one gets busy, study, career, family, etc. and finally retirement and a bit of time to read more and reflect. Based on that reflection I have come to the conclusion that the US has caused a whole shedload or trouble. It supports Saudi, a foul regime. It supports Israel, which I consider an apartheid state. It nurtured Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda, it has created havoc in the M/E. There’s lots of other stuff I could mention but life’s too short. Suffice to say, I’ve come to the conclusion that the world’s policeman is in my opinion a rogue cop. That realisation doesn’t keep me awake at night, but it does give me a different perspective on the propaganda we all get thrown at us every day
I won’t disagree with what you say for the most part, but fabricated or not, Iraq wasn’t an attempt to extend the American empire. I am pretty sure that they had an aim in mind, regime change (bad enough for any state to do) and then to sit back and enjoy the more acceptable replacement. Whatever else it was it cannot be compared to the extension of the Russian empire being attempted in Ukraine. If the Russians are victorious there they will not leave for a hundred years if they are not shifted by force. That is why it is so important to force them out at this stage.
I think we’ll have to agree to disagree David. I don’t see the Ukraine situation as an attempt to expand the non existent Russian empire, I see it as a throughly predictable result of ill thought out NATO expansion. I see US “interventions” over the years as the means of bolstering US influence. Regardless, the US has been very active, Russia has not, yet we’re to swallow this “expansionist” line? I guess it’s the old story, accuse your enemy of what you’re actually up to yourself
Non-existent ??? Russia is a comparatively small country but its empire stretches almost 10,000 kms across vast tracts of the subjugated lands of non-Russian peoples. The only difference between that and The British Empire is that it is all stuck together in one lump.
Would you, for one moment, consider a British Prime Minister, suddenly announcing that Ireland is not a real country but part of Britain to be invaded again and have destruction wreaked upon it, justified?
I very much doubt it.
But if it did happenj, you can bet your boots the Yanks would be sending the Irish tanks and anything else they wanted to drive the invaders out. How is Ukraine different?
Leaving aside terminology (Russian Empire or areas taken by force by Russia), it’s not an either/or. In 2013, the Ukrainian president wanted to cosy up to Russia until Ukraine’s citizens made it clear that was unacceptable and preferred, as it was their right to do in a democracy, the EU. Russia’s response? Invade the Crimea.
Come on David If Norway, Denmark, The Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Spain had all joined the Warsaw Pact and Ireland was considering doing the same (even without a major British Naval base on her territory) I think any British Minister would have considered their options
And I have no assumption that the “yanks” would be sending anything unless it suited their own purposes.
But Porridge, do you not think Russia has the right to protect her own security? I really don’t understand why encouraging a state that has a major Russian naval base on its (relatively) recently acquired territory to join NATO wouldn’t be seen as inflammatory. It’s just so obvious to me🙂 But I guess this is what has us where we are, women and children dying.
I’m nor spending my life researching all this stuff. But nobody has come back and explained where this Russian expansionism has occurred. Crimea was, as I have repeated, a defensive imperative and I don’t think anybody one here, least of all me, can say whether Donbas is really Russian or Ukrainian. Though someone did mention to me that Catherine the Great had planted many Russians in the region. A bit like the Ulster plantation I expect, with similar results.
But come on, Norway, Denmark, The Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Spain have had nothing to fear from Britain for hundreds of years, but on the other hand Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Chechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria have had invasions, subjugations and bitterly fought, until '89, bids for freedom within living memory.
Your 2 cases have absolutely nothing in common. As regards Ireland, it stayed neutral in '39/'45 but there were severe worries that it might be a ‘soft’ entry point for Germany, but it wasn’t invaded by Britain or the USA, but if it had been it wouldn’t, like Iceland, have been as imperial expansion, it would have been a temporary defensive measure. That is certainly not the case with the Ukraine.
It begins to look John as if your hatred of the USA is leading you to search for even more extreme scenarios to back up your weak case.
Good point. However my point is that the expansion of NATO could have been handled in a way that protected those wishing to join without spooking Russia.
As for Ireland. I don’t think a German invasion was ever a reality but not allowing the allies to use her ports has always been a source of discomfort for me.
I have no hatred of the US David. Some of my best friends are American, as they say I spent the majority of my career working for US firms and I’m very grateful of the opportunities that afforded me. What I don’t like is US foreign policy.
I am struggling to see how, short of inviting Russia to join (which I advocated btw), Nato expansion could have been handled in any other way. The Russians brought it on themselves imo.
Putin was a known danger and our leaders walked us into this disaster. Now they seem determined to escalate it. There has to be better ways of dealing with one mad man then throwing lives and weapons at him. That’ so 20th century.
