So, true. (as i continue to bang my head, gently against the wall, while I wonder why some of our fellow citizens here in France, voted out… )
Well it will all begin to unfold whilst the Brexiteers remain in denial and always will.
At present as I see it, by declining to reveal their objectives, and I understand why, they now face the probability that:
a) The short term effects of Brexit will be very apparent.
b) They will return with a deal in 2019, that will satisfy nobody, not least as there can be no benchmark as none was agreed, both the Remain and Leave factions in Parliament vote it down.
c) The UK has left the EU, there is no deal and we in effect have got Hard Brexit, which only the extremist right wing of the Tory party want, and not what the majority of the electorate voted for. (As always the consequence of having a PM who could not think beyond the end of his nose!)
c If the economy is in a mess, which is what I fear then at the next election in 2020, the Tories get voted out and guess who becomes our Prime Minister.
Here is my take on things at the moment. The EU mouthpieces Junker, Merkel and Holland all say very vocally to the public, “it is Single Market and Immigration or nothing, there will be no compromise”, so May and her people decide to take an equally hard stance and announce “OK Britain will go for Hard Brexit” and behind the scenes the EU member state leaders all go “Oh shit this is not want we want at all, we need to be able to export to Britain without massive tariffs”. However, both side have now put their marker down and the negotiations will start from there, Britain will not end up with a Hard Brexit and the EU will do a deal but it will be presented to the world in such a way that the EU do not lose face but both sides get what they really want… I hope.
Could go that way Mike,
but I think it would be political suicide for a UK government to give in, as far as the ability to control our borders re immigration is concerned…and the same goes for the EU…they cannot afford to let this free movement tenet go, as this will just speed up the eventual break up of the EU (which I am sure is on the cards)…and yes, I know all the Remainers don’t want to hear this,… but the Grande Impasse remains…
One of the possible confusions about immigration is that in general the EU is concerned with immigration from the Middle East and Africa whereas the UK is concerned about immigration from the EU.
So for the EU, Free movement is NOT an issue as it is more or less entirely internal but which is the major concern for the UK
So for the UK immigration from non EU countries does not seem to be perceived as a problem, but workers from the EU is.
The UK has 100% control over non EU migration, through the points scheme, which given the approx. 200,000 that come in that way merely shows why it doesn’t work
We could easily work out a deal with the EU, so that we can stop people with criminal records, require a period when the individual contributes into the taxation system before they qualify for any benefits, just like France in fact.
When people find that they have no vegetables in the shops, no ready packed salads etc. they will wonder why and someone will have to tell them that it is because they wanted to halt immigration.
Most of the people who voted to leave don’t eat vegetables or salads
Don’t believe everything you hear. The Brexit vote may have been an opportunity for our UK pond life to decide that they have legitimacy all of a sudden but the absolute volume of pond life remains within limits. If you want to experience real xenophobia try east Germany or Russia. And both France and Spain have their moments. So do Brazil and Jamaica, it’s not specifically a UK issue. We have the means to deal with pond life via exemplary sentencing; a few 8 year sentences and they’ll crawl back under their stone. I’m very happy with immigration but I do want the right ones and control of that process.
The real reason for Brexit was, and remains, sovereignty. That manifests itself in a couple of ways. What isn’t discussed, for obvious reasons, is that our legislature and judiciary simply don’t, at present, have the ability or motivation to make and stick with their decisions; there’s always a higher authority. Getting out from that should force some conviction politicians onto the stage where they can be judged for themselves via the democratic process.
As for how this plays out it’s obvious to me that the EU must play hardball pour encourager les autres. So that means WTO rules. My hope is that we trigger Article 50 and, at the same time, immediately end the scheduled negotiations. So final exit to WTO rules in April 2017.
No Jon it doesn’t work quite like that.
The UK is a member of the WTO because of its membership of the EU.
When we leave the EU we leave the WTO and have to reapply.
In order to do that we have to have a tariff table and a set of trade terms for the products and services we wish to export and of course import.
The existing EU ones are a decent starting point but will need changes. For example, the EU tariff table is designed to protect French farmers (we all know that) and the UK will certainly want to change that. There will be others.
Then we have to get our proposed tariffs approved by all 147?? members, any one of which can say no. (As a simple example the current CETA deal is being blocked by some countries in the EU and will probably fail despite a multi-year negotiating process)
And of course, do not forget that in many countries with a Federal structure, unanimous decision approval has to be gained by regional governments .
It will come as no surprise to you that such a process is very lengthy and complex.
In the interim, probably multi-decade period, we will be trading on our own. I have no idea how that will work for a major economy whose biggest market are its immediate neighbours, who we have just pissed off.
I make no judgements about Brexit, that is a done deal, but we have leapt off a cliff into the unknown. Many individuals believe there is a quick simple fix but there isn’t.
Brexit seems to becoming a complete shambles.
Irrespective of one’s view on the topic, we almost seem to have gone nowhere, with the opposing sides now entrenched in another battle as we drift towards what is called a Hard Brexit which the majority of the country very definitely did not vote for.
It is an objective being pursued by the extreme Eurosceptic wing on the Tory party irrespective of the damage it will do to the country and Europe at large, a sort of Anglo-Saxon version of Trump, deceived by their own arrogance and plaudits of those around him whilst remaining detached from the wider community they are supposedly representing.
The UK is a member of WTO. The problem is that the UK’s tariff table is that of the EU and, as you rightly say, changing that is tricky, to say the least. Much depends on the goodwill of WTO members and that may not be forthcoming. I’m not at all sure that the argument that life is too complicated to change is a valid one. My own view is that it’s an argument for doing things differently. The sky won’t fall and we’ll adjust.
During WW2 every time the Germans fired a shell they paid Vickers a royalty because Vickers has the patent on fuses. Naturally it was a bit complex, involving Switzerland and so on. People are ingenious, they find ways around apparent impossibilities.
As to your views on the drivers for Brexit they’re your views and you’re entitled to them. Mine are different, that’s all.
You are very hopeful…I think that feeling will slowly fade over time…it is a terrible mess and no amount of wishing and hoping will make it different
I think you have used the wrong word; EU countries may WANT to export goods to the U.K. but they don’t actually NEED to. It’s a big world out there.
If you are interested in the issues facing the UK, the EU and elsewhere, I have found the OPEN Europe web site a good source of seemingly unbiased information about the topic
You can sign up to their daily news letter, which is what I have done, or you can send them dosh but my impression is they are seeking corporate sponsors. (With respect I doubt many of us are in that sort of financial league and certainly not me.)
This is today’s report and commentary, happens to be pertinent to this discussion as it happens.
I found the article I was looking for. It reads as follows:
"A leading farmer has warned that British vegetables will disappear from supermarket shelves if post-Brexit immigration controls prevent thousands of Eastern Europeans from working in the UK.
Guy Poskitt, who grows 80,000 tons of carrots and parsnips a year in Yorkshire, says it is impossible to find enough British labourers to do the work.
Last year the number of EU nationals in the UK rose to an estimated 180,000 but the Government is committed to reducing total immigration to the tens of thousands.
“If you took migrant workers out of the supply chain you would within five days have no fresh British produce on the supermarket shelves,” Mr Poskitt claimed.
He told Sky News he pays agencies £9.50 per hour for temporary labourers and that without workers from Eastern Europe the industry would collapse.
“[My business] would have to close; we could not serve our customers without the availability of migrant workers,” he said.
Picking pumpkins from a nearby field for supply to major supermarkets, a group of Czech labourers said they are puzzled about why some people say they are no longer welcome. “I take home £50 or £60 a day here but just £30 for work in Prague,” said 21-year-old Patrick Dumka, as he stood in the muddy field that is his workplace for nine hours a day. He picks more than 1,000 pumpkins during each shift in all weathers, taking just an hour’s rest in a makeshift shelter, and joked that the British are too lazy to do the work. “This is good work, normal work for us,” he said with a smile. “It is not hard.”
Mark Straw whose firm Abbey Personnel Services supplies labourers to Yorkshire farms claims there is no alternative to Eastern European labour. From his office in Selby he hires and transports 200 Eastern Europeans to work each day, and says locals will not take the jobs on offer in agriculture. “It’s outdoor, it’s physical, you would say that there are little prospects for advancement,” he explained. “It’s unskilled labour so [locals] do not want to do that kind of work.”
I understand the last piece of logic but the pay before tax etc is just about £20 K per annum based on an 8 hour day. So we vote to leave to stop migrant workers who do the work we don’t wish to do so that we can pay more for imported food, which will be more expensive, increasing the cost of living, reducing our standard of living increasing our trade deficit and all that flows from that.
Did we really vote for this?
I think not but I go back to my comment that Jon finds objectionable. How many of the Eurosceptic right wing of the Tory party worry about the price of fruit and veg and if they will have a job next year. My guess is absolutely zero.
I do not need to repeat what I posted previously about these people.
What is the price of so called sovereignty when you cannot afford to feed your family?
What did these companies do before the large number of Eastern Europeans came to the UK? I only wonder, that is all.
A good question.
The type of agriculture that the article described and the movement of labour didn’t exist before the UK joined the EU so there is no comparison.
If I may draw a parallel. Go back to when I was a lad and there were no motorways. The current pattern of large warehouses and distribution that serves the large supermarkets and shopping malls simply didn’t exist and could not have existed.
Or when I was a student for a short stay in hospital, the only people I saw were white Brits. But in those days, the medical technology was simpler, less demand and all that stuff we know about. I am sure you have watched the many documentaries about the NHS and Social Services and I struggle to find an white Brits. I welcome the free movement of people so I am not complaining about that at all, just that that the world has changed and not sure we can go back.
The risk of Brexit is that it takes the UK in terms of trade, legal stuff, work, etc that existed 40 years ago. Of course the UK has changed and it will adapt but the transitional and potentially long term impact will be significant.
And just to take the logic one step further. As I see there is no way the UK can reach a deal with the EU, which requires the unanimous consent of all 27 member states and the EU parliament, besides our own, that does not permit workers from Poland, Rumania, Bulgaria etc to come to the UK to work more or less as present. They need the income that the work creates and we need their time and energy and skills.
Hope this helps
Actually, Anthony, I do, & I did J
I listened to one of the early morning BBC farming programmes a couple of weeks ago and there was an East Anglia farmer explaining how he pays far more than the minimum wage to the people who work in his fields as it’s hard demanding work but even so his only applicants come from Eastern Europe.
Do you all know what? I am heartily sick of the furore over immigration! For goodness sake!!! The UK as we know it now was built on immigration. During the first millenia we has Romans, Saxons, Angles, Jutes, Denes (Vikings). Many stayed and made their lives in the UK. In the middle ages we had the Norman they too stayed and added their cultures and indeed royalty. Moving on after war the West Indians arrived. They came to help run the NHS and transport systems. Shamefully many were met with bigotted prejudice. In the 50/60s the Indians arrived. What a culture they brought with them. Who doesn’t love a curry. Then latterly with a unified Europe more culture arrived and we Brits have taken ours into the heartlands of 27 countries.
So am I for staying part of this wonderfully diverse world. Has the UK benefitted from immigration and indeed migration. OF COURSE IT BALLY WELL HAS!!! So please belt up and shut up and someone please enlighten our dopey PM and tell her to put the country before her petty wretched career.