What next, indeed

My take on the Brexit mess as at 1330 12th March.

Scenario 1 - Mays “new” deal passes, there is a short delay to Brexit while all the legislation is passed. Then we enter negotiations with the EU on our future trade relations. This will probably drag on past the cutoff date and the “backstop” will kick in. This will mean the UK as a whole remaining in a customs union until the trade stuff is worked out. Could be years. UNLIKELY.

Scenario 2 - Mays deal fails, she cancels the votes on Thursday and Friday because she insists whe can get even better terms from the EU and will return for a 3rd vote on the 26th (i.e., just before a no-deal Brexit). This will go down like the proverbial lead balloon and parliament will insist on going ahead with the two votes. Since this would mean that the PM is a proven liar and con artist., hence UNLIKELY,

Scenario 3 - Mays deal fails, and she honours her commitment to hold the Thursday and Friday votes. Both of which are positive. We ask the EU for more time, they say a few months is no good and insist we opt for a 21 month delay so that this gives enough time for (a) a referendum on Mays deal/no Brexit and/or (b) a general election or (best of all) © no Brexit, because everyone has lost interest. PROBABLE.

Scenario 4 - Taking advantage of the incalculable blind stupidity of the human race, aliens invade, establish Utopia and everyone lives happily ever after. YOU NEVER KNOW.

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The votes are today, Wednesday and Thursday.

See my other post - ERG and DUP not supporting so pretty unlikely to pass tonight

No deal should get rejected, based on previous votes but you never know - at least we’d have clarity :anguished::fearful:

After that it gets interesting - will parliament ask for a delay. Logic suggests that if we get to that vote we would need a delay, but that only leads us to another showdown between TM and Parliament towards the end of May. At that point of course TM might bludgeon her deal through but it won’t be a good start to the trade deal negotiation which will follow.

If MPs reject a delay - well, that’s the cowards way of asking for no-deal, isn’t it?

I cannot see how MP’s would reject an A50 extension, getting the EU to agree might be more difficult though.

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It’s not going to be popular with the Brexiteers and Leave voters.

The EU has virtually given a nod to an extension up to 23 May, but - I agree - it’s not a certainty.

A longer extension will probably need a coherent plan to break the logjam and involvement in the EU elections so won’t sit at all well domestically, given that even a short delay will probably have the howling loonies out in force.