Dunno, just commenting on Theo's point. Greece has form, that is kind of stuck on them like a criminal record that never goes away. Plus they have a very murky 20 century behind them anyway.
Interesting history lesson, but the relevance to the current situation?
Greece exited (we now say Grexit) from the Latin Monetary Union in 1908 when they were suspended after 100 years membership when it emerged that Athens had fiddled their accounts which since the country was suffering chronic economic weakness anyway, lost them what little credibility they still had in the international financial and economic world.
They had been diluting the gold content in coins, so Greece left the Latin Monetary Union, whose founding members included France, Italy, Belgium and Switzerland and eventually had 61 members worldwide. Now, over a century later, history looks like it might repeat itself although the circumstances are vastly different.
Greece has form.
A few individuals, in a number of countries hoarded the Francs, other forged them and others cooked the books by means of false accounting or not following the formula for the coins. The French Revolution introduced the decimal metric system in 1795 when Napoleon replaced the 'Livre Tournois' with the 'Franc Germinal' whereby one Franc equalled one hundred Centimes with a ratio of 15.5 to 1 between silver and gold. Some members tried adding lead, reducing silver and gold then issuing the money as though it met the mint standard. Greece re-entered the currency union in 1910 just as the LMU was on the way out.
In May Carl Alban raised here on SFN the question if "political talk is damaging SFN". Well you don't need to be expert in politics to understand the smaller wheels or more precisely, if you know how to read the white between the lines you can't be damaging. Ironically in times of fracturing of politics, forcing politicians to learn how to build alliances, with some of them learning the hard way this is how the story will go:
Ok, you don't believe me? Look what happen to this thing they've called the European currency 100 years ago and it was named Latin Monetary Union. Well some got very, very rich ....
Theo: You say: "It all remains to be seen whether the EC, ECB and IMF have not yet done a great disservice to themselves by basically contributing with their exceptionally stupid stubbornness to ignite a civil war in this most southern Balkan-state. Civil unrest and an unstable social society is very much the nature of Greeks. And if this is happen, we better prepare for a lot more worse to come> "
As an expat resident in Greece (18 years) can I say:
1. Greece should never have been in the eurozone in the first place. Goldman Sachs and a compliant corrupt Greek government are to blame.
2. The Greek people have had enough of the austerity measures placed on them as demonstrated forcefully in the referendum last Sunday when not a single region or electoral district polled anything other than a massive NO vote to further austerity.
3. As a result, despite Tsipras' best or worst efforts, it is now all posturing. The bulk of the eurozone members want Greece out of it and no amount of bargaining, giving way, accepting tough times ahead etc is going to deflect the grey suits and the politicians from their - a Grexit. The ECB played its part in that well today by downgrading Greek collateral values prior to the meeting held later in the morning. Who is pulling the strings? It is the unelected bureaucrats and financiers who will preside over the destruction of a European nation with politicians left on the sidelines, wringing their hands in false grief.
4. Pray for Greece and the Greeks. They are going to be in desperate straits.
Bob.
A helmet for his wife wouldn't have gone a-miss quite frankly.
Make sure you have enough on the side for a decent motor bike and helmet ;-)
No way, you have to get the top up mortgage before you start not paying ¿¿¿¿
I think we'll hold a referendum in our house next Sunday...a 'No' vote will mean we won't be paying our mortgage back but we will of course continue to live in our house..... Marvellous deal......!! :-)
I agree John: if you have a property which is done up to newer standards in plumbing and electricity including renewable & self supporting energy units (solar & water) discreetly and professional installed, there is nothing to worry about to get the (realistic) price you are asking for. This is of course based on the assumption the house mortgage-free and you market all yourself... (you can do it through a agent, but don't fall into the "exclusive" trap!!)
To bring this here in context to the Greek drama: once the first "Bank Agricole" subsidiaries in Italy begin to collapse (they suffer already) and you have a mortgage with them here in France you better watch out! It actually cores not matter with which Bank you do business, there is a lot cover-up and only thanks to more insurance contracts (which are required by law) things are still more or less working, but certainly not growing.
It all remains to be seen whether the EC, ECB and IMF have not yet done a great disservice to themselves by basically contributing with their exceptionally stupid stubbornness to ignite a civil war in this most southern Balkan-state. Civil unrest and an unstable social society is very much the nature of Greeks. And if this is happen, we better prepare for a lot more worse to come> Looking at the breathtaking dullness of NATO's humanitarian interventions in all countries where nothing is left on what a society can be rebuilt on for me a Greece in civil chaos is like an open barn inviting. Not even Hitlers thugs and executioners could control the Greek people, let alone this pseudo-communist, somewhat self-elected EC government. We then go back to Singapore...
probably not really.
But possible.
I have frequently heard how true that might well be. Firstly as my OH says, people selling (French) are often able and willing to wait so that properties may have gone up in 2010 and the prices not dropped a lot since, but until they sign a compromis de vente they are not even looking for somewhere to go. They have the house on which people need to work to make their own project generally. The ones foreign owners wish to get rid of quickly are often really overpriced and boy-oh-boy do some of them haggle. Agents, including the one she works for, always make a feast of a meal of certain houses. In fact many of the best properties are going through leboncoin and similar media rather than agents which largely French buyers scoop up. But yes, the better houses are not 'given away'. We bought knowing we had a lot of work over many years before us. People have been terribly disillusioned when they bought before 2006 when there was no energy performance diagnosis or SPANC inspections of water, drainage and sanitation systems. Now they are often buying houses that have not been audited by either and find themselves with pretty hefty bills once they are working on the house. There are lots of other things about energy efficiency, getting rid of asbestos and, and, and... that agents do not generally mention. So, the French are snapping up the bargains and reaching compromises on all the work to be done coming off the asking price, splitting the difference a bit and getting the real bargains. Where an agency one was completed recently, a 'bargain' house in a small town went for €50k. The estimates for the work required were in before the sale was completed. A small matter of €180k. The house is still a bargain and the French buyers are savvy enough to have done the rounds to get the best quotes for work, plus know there will be some on top of the 180k. If a house is clear with the audits and needs little or no structural and/or installation work then vendors will not negotiate. If they are genuinely good houses, then they will sell relatively quickly. It looks like a buyers' market but then what do people expect agents to tell them. The equation is often that houses under 200k that are neither 'new' or tiny, need a lot of money spent on them. The catch is that a lot of artisans will not look at houses whilst still on the market because if they give the most honest quotes they are likely to scare people off. Getting a 'cheap' expat builder in often means no 10 year warranty, somebody not actually qualified for some of the work and thus insurers are increasingly asking to see the paperwork for completed work because of claims that are actually because of bad craftsmanship rather than damage but are not covered because the artisan is not covered or covering their work. It is full of traps and tripwires. All that glistens is not gold.
Anyway, will Greece have any impact on this? Perhaps the pound will be worth a few cents more and a few people will jump on planes to go house buying whilst they can save a couple of thousand here and there. Probably not really.
Sellers don’t have to be realistic. If new buyers are better prepared than ever before they will ignore the overpriced houses and buy something at what they consider to be a reasonable price. The trouble is they may not get the property that they actually want. The sellers holding out for their asking prices might not be as silly as you think, the better houses on the market are unlikely to be given away. To get your dream house you might actually have to dig deeper into your pockets than you had planned.
What the agents might not say but I do, is that of all vendors the British ones are most likely to want to keep prices high or recuperate what they paid plus renovations/modernisation. The French certainly, but also Dutch, Danes and others will drop prices far easier. In fact, my OH has recently turned down a house because the seller got pompous and started on about his house in Evesham appreciating with 'even less work' than the one here. Even in a buoyant market what he wanted would have been overpriced.
However, I know from being here with somebody who is supposedly part-time who is out showing houses from morning to well into the evening and often seven days a week. The market is changing, the French have taken to buying and here in SW France second homes are growing in number among them. Plenty of houses have gone on the market recently, prices have not gone down since early this year but also not up.
On the 700,000 (should be 70,000 anyway, the SW France - Aquitaine - population is only 3.3m). That is a popular statistic. However, since most houses remain on the books of all agencies who take them on and some people are now on perhaps their fourth, fifth or sixth agent, the houses duplicate. We have looked across the board and there is actually something under 30,000 probably. When people change agent or go to an additional one it goes out as a 'new' offer. She has one that has been on the market for four years that went up as 'new' a couple of weeks ago.
What is doing well is above €600,000 and better still above €1,000,000 where people are getting asking prices very quickly whereas a year ago nobody was really looking at them. Top end means investment, so people are turning back to 'bricks and mortar' up there. Anyway, lower end market is not going down further, most people cannot afford to, which is why some are stuck on the market and will be for a while (define that!).
There were over 400 cancellations to the French Weatherby Property show after the results of the general election, think there may have been a boom then if things had gone differently here.
As a buyer, our French agent has told us that there are over 700,000 (all varieties) properties on the market in SW France...we have hundreds that match our tick boxes so narrowing them down is key, we have about 10 hot favourites, the problem is that they are al basically the same - land, buildings, water, all needing "refreshing" rather than renovation products all mostly within about 50k radius BUT the prices range from 98,000 (originally 200.000) to 199.000 euros. Most have been on the market longer than two years. Most have decreased in price dramatically. One of our really hot favourites was originally 230,000 now at 120,000 and open to offers despite having gained a CU on part. However we get about 50 notifications from the various agents we are registered with daily new properties.
One new one popped up yesterday - 199,000 - lovely, isolated longhouse, advertised with 5 beds - except there was only 1 finished, Barn - but needs new roof...etc etc. I went back immediately to the agent asking why the price was so high. Her answer:- "The owners insisted". We both agreed this is going to sit and sit until they come to they realise.
Don't get me wrong. We were so desperate to sell up in the UK, as we too have been on the market for a year, that we accepted an offer £50,000 under the price we paid in 2005, and we have done £16,000 major renovation work. However, we are looking for a new adventure so bit the bullet! As a seller who had to take a dive, I know how much that hurts. Things have changed. Prices will not improve at least until after the next French election (ref: 6 estate agents, two financial advisors, three currency specialists and my own economic journalist background). If you want to sell. please be realistic. We and other buyers are much more savvy now than before. Cost of new Fosse?...cost of plumbing for new bathroom?, cost of electric changes.... roofing, It all mounts up and we know how much. We do not expect to see a "Dressed home" as we would in the UK (we kept special bedding, had cleaners in, locked the dogs up, cleaned all windows and had the garden done before every viewing), But we would like to see a clean and tidy home, and please, please declutter - we packed every "memory" and "ornament", a year ago. We hide the toothbrushes, flannels etc. and ensure all toilets are clean and working so viewers, if they need them, can use them. No dog poop in the garden, the little things will make a difference. Best of all go out for the day and let the agents show houses!!! Do not reject offers immediately, think about the competition, how badly do you want to sell? .... Talk to the buyers if possible, is there some negotiation? We and other UK buyers will be over very soon, so please make our viewings a pleasant experience! Many thanks. I may have inadvertently upset some sellers and for this I apologise, but just trying to qualify its not just France that is having to make reductions. Wales, Scotland, the North of England is very slow moving in property sales; Italy is crying out for buyers as is of course Spain where property is the most difficult to move within the EU currently.
Possibly. I hear from a 'nearby' source that a lot of properties are going on the market at present. The offer is growing. However that might go both ways. Too many properties not selling could still drive prices back down although they have been stable recently. Whether it actually qualifies as a boom remains to be seen.
I AM hearing about a mini property boom in France?
Could this be?
Greece will remain a member of the EU. So don't worry about your money, the £ will be converted into € and the € then into Greek Drachma. Every Greek government will take care that your money is used wisely, - as usual. Understand that they need the money to feed the refugees fleeing from the Islamic Paradise and other "humanitarian" war plagued countries where some great thinkers and strategists where so generous to destroy every little bit of society to make sure nothing can be built on it except some rag-tag-gangs.
The Greek government will give very detailed and accurate reports of their needs (as usual). So you can leave your savings in your bank. If it is "Agricole" she will need it latest then when her Italian subsidiaries begin whining. And don't let's forget our poor governments, they really need money to do what they do!
If you are a posh investor you wait a while to make even better profit with the Greek people, this has worked the past 5 years, and once out of the oversight of ECB it will flash even more return of profit on your bank account. The only thing what you have to do is to pay your taxes on this profits. Even this Greek government is full accord with this policies, they haven't nationalized a single tax evasion punk at any time this story is going on.
yes two companies actually to compare and contrast. sent rent over with one a they offered much better rate on the day. thanks,we have checked into torfx as well.
I completely agree, Brian. It's fascinating really and all things do point to a weaker Euro. The fact that it's where it is shows that we shouldn't underestimate the strength and resilience of the single currency. It's also important to bear in mind that Greece isn't the only situation affecting the markets, with other Euro fundamentals and data still having an impact.
Anyone looking to deal in Euros now should proceed with caution. If Greece default this evening, then we could see the rates we expected yesterday morning.
UK's growth was revised up this morning and we moved to 1.4115. This has retracted once again and GBPEUR is back to 1.4041.