Defence? I don’t think so

On the subject on the planned defence of post-invasion Britain during WW2, have a read up on the GHQ Auxiliary Units Churchill had set up if you haven’t already done so.

We can thank our collective lucky stars that they weren’t needed.

Ahh but David, Poland didn’t provoke Germany into war in '39 (though one could argue the seeds were sown in Versailles). But the West (read US) has provoked this war. Is it too much to ask that western politicions consider carefully what unintended consequences their words and actions could provoke? Bush and his cronies lying about weapons of mass destruction caused misery for millions. And his throw away suggestion that Ukraine join NATO has now done the same.

While everything Putin gas done is despicable and I hope he and his henchmen are Brough to justice ASAP, I think we need to delve deeper into what has caused this whole disaster and it didn’t start last February, nor even with the annexation of Crimea. It started on the 1st of April 2008 (rather appropriatly).

At least François Fillon could see the implications even if Bush and his hawks didn’t care. Why would they I suppose, like all US cock-ups the pain ends up in other countries.

Heres what these poor conscripts do, mass rapes and killings, every Russian soldier is complicit in this and as such are fair game when Ukraine retaliates.https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/28/russia-ukraine-war-un-report-details-accounts-of-rape-torture-and-executions.html

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This is what I take issue with you over. Conscripts or not they were not murdered, they were killed as a legitimate part of an illegal invading army.

But I also, while not denying what Bush said, do not think that that was sufficient excuse for Putin to unleash a war of terror against its neighbour. Especially on the grounds of it being ‘not a real country’ when that country was a fellow member of the United Nations. Only legitimately recognised countries are allowed membership of that, the clue is in the name.

In the early part of the 20th century Britain was prompted to get involved in a Dreadnought competition because it wanted to not allow Germany to gain an advantage in that sphere. What Britain did not do was attack Germany while saying it wasn’t a real country, and if it had, I am sure that most right thinking people would have condemned such action.

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Those poor, untrained conscripts had families too David. IMO all of those people are as much victims of Putin as the poor civilians under attack in Ukraine. I would like the killing to stop now, all the killing. That should be the number one priority.

It is not only Bush’s words that kicked this off. Elsewhere I’ve posted maps showing NATO expansion since the USSR collapsed. It has been relentless. That any politician could think that Russia could be surrounded by NATO and there not be a negative reaction shocks me. It was only a question of time. While all of those countries had every right to join NATO if they wished, at the same time measures should have been taken to avoid spooking Russia and to keep everyone safe. Putin’s army has inflicted the damage and must bear the ultimate blame, but in my view it is too easy to just blame Putin, it was also a failure of Western diplomacy and foresight that set us on the road to disaster. I think that has to be acknowledged if we are to have any hope of avoiding it again. Meanwhile, China is biding its time over Taiwan. This is all very dodgy stuff and we don’t want the US walking the World into yet another catastrophe.

Tragically, I don’t see the pressure and urgency for peace from Western leaders that I would like. I’m not even sure the US wants peace at this stage and Biden has stated he spends a lot of time taking to EU leaders, I suspect that’s because they are not as gung-ho as the US.

As for the reasons for WW1, you’ve probably read “The Guns of August” by Barbara W. Tuchman. I hope that some day there will be an equally detailed analysis of the current war too.

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Yes!

But those ‘seeds’ were not sown by the Poles who subsequently suffered two subjugations, first by the Nazis and then by their Russian ‘liberators’

I’d argue that they didn’t ‘provoke’ it, but instead inadvertently made it more probable by not responding sufficiently vigourously to Russia’s invasion and subsequent annexation of the Crimean region of Ukraine. For me, albeit in retrospect, that’s the big failure of Obama’s presidency.

I think some careless words have been used, many years later as a superficial pretext for Putin’s invasion.

Russia’s a massively corrupt dictatorship and a cultural basket case that has contributed zilch to global betterment since the beginning of Stalin’s purges. In comparison to China Russia looks absolutely pathetic, the only thing they’ve given the world since Stravinsky is the Kalashnikov and even then, many countries make better versions than the Russian original.

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Such a good book :heart_eyes:

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There is an excellent documentary film about the book made in 1964, but the copy on youtube has been taken down unfortunately.

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Vladimir Putin could cause the killing to stop at any time he chooses by withdrawing his invasion forces back across the border into Russia.
In the meantime, any Russian forces on Ukrainian territory are fair game. One does not wait until the enemy is stronger before attacking them.

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Correct in every detail.

I don’t see how the blame for this can be laid anywhere else but at Putin’s door, people can shout ‘NATO expansion’ all they like but he has been planning for years to take back Ukraine, what he didn’t count on was the fierce resistance and worldwide support that followed the invasion.

Whilst I believe some sort of settlement will happen I think the rest of the world will just accept and adapt to the conflict in the short term as there are other issues just as important.

Is it Russia rather than just Putin. I know that it is often called Putins War by UK politicians.

I don’t think so, Russia was doing just fine before Putin came to power but once he was in total control things changed.

Putin and those around him are all ex KGB and have a built in suspicion of the West.
The rise of the oligarchs whilst the majority of Russians struggled resulted in the increasing use of authoritarian powers. Now the only tv is the Russian state tv and like many others before him Putin has embarked on a foreign war to coalesce public opinion behind him.
He is using Ukraine as an example of saving Russia from the West and NATO expansionism and the general public have very little or no access to unbiased journalism.
He cannot go on increasing conscription and sending bodies back in bags for ever. Mothers will not accept the continued slaughter of their sons.

Not going to happen though, is it Roger, meanwhile people die. Peace needs to be worked at.

Any proof for that Tim?

I’m not too sure of that. What for example?

Rather worrying aspect of the long game in this war, as put well in this article.

(I’ll give a small edit for those interested without a tall enough firewall ladder)

Ukraine is getting more and more skilled at knocking down drones, but there is a growing imbalance: Many of its defensive weapons like surface-to-air missiles cost far more than the drones do. And that, some military experts say, may favor Moscow over the long haul.

Artem Starosiek, the head of Molfar, a Ukrainian consultancy that supports the country’s war effort, estimated that it costs up to seven times more to down a drone with a missile than it does to launch one. That is an equation that the Kremlin may be banking on, some analysts say.

The Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones that Moscow has increasingly been relying on since October are relatively uncomplicated devices and fairly cheap, while the array of weapons used to shoot them out of the sky can be much pricier, according to experts. The self-destructing drones can cost as little as $20,000 to produce, while the cost of firing a surface-to-air missile can range from $140,000 for a Soviet-era S-300 to $500,000 for a missile from an American NASAMS.

Aware of the risk that Western allies may grow weary of the cost of supporting Ukraine’s defense — a concern heightened by the transfer of leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives to the Republicans — Ukrainian officials have warned that Russian tactics are changing.

The White House has said that it is aware of reports that the Kremlin and Tehran are seeking to establish a joint production line for drones in Russia. Over the long term, Mr. Boulegue said, that would allow Moscow to deploy still more drones in attacks.

“That is going to put more stress on Ukraine’s air defense system,” he said.

That helps explain why Ukraine has adapted its own tactics, in part by conducting strikes on bases deep inside Russian territory. The goal, Mr. Boulegue said, is “to increase deterrence, which they hope will place less stress on air defense.”

For now, Moscow has changed how it is using the drones it already has in hand.

Russian forces have increasingly been launching their explosive drones at night and low along the Dnipro River, making it harder for Ukraine to detect them, according to Yurii Ihnat, the spokesman for the Ukrainian air force, who was speaking on Ukrainian radio.

“The radar antenna that detects the target will not see it if the target is flying below the level of the antenna,” he said.

Since the war began in February, both sides have used drones not just for reconnaissance but also for attacks. It is the first time the devices have been so widely deployed in a European war.

George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said he suspected that Ukraine was deploying more complex and expensive air defense systems to protect sensitive and critical infrastructure.

It costs far less, for example, to shoot down a drone than to repair a destroyed power station, Mr. Starosiek noted. And then there is the human factor.

“People are still alive,” he said.

Some military experts view Ukraine as a testing ground for state-of-the-art weapons and information systems that may foreshadow the shape of warfare for generations to come.

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Since the war began in February, both sides have used drones not just for reconnaissance but also for attacks. It is the first time the devices have been so widely deployed in a European war.

Not sure that is correct, @Susannah , weren’t the V1s and 2s used against London in the 40s drones?

An unmanned aerial vehicle, commonly known as a drone, is an aircraft without any human pilot, crew, or passengers on board. UAVs are a component of an unmanned aircraft system, which includes adding a ground-based controller and a system of communications with the UAV. Wikipedia

I am no expert but the footage I have seen on my tv seems to show that they do not travel at supersonic speed, so could they not be shot down by more conventional means? Especially if spotters were employed along a likely route, as happened also in the 2nd World War.

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That may be true, but it’s “whataboutery”, isn’t it?

The fact remains that Putin’s Russia invaded Ukraine.

A sovereign nation is entitled to choose its own allies.

And conscripts are soldiers. This continuing criticism of Ukraine and apologism for Russia is simply seeking to avoid the fact that the invasion and subsequent war were solely Putin’s decision.

I think most people just find the anti-Ukraine pro-Russia rhetoric incomprehensible. It’s not because they’re uninformed in some way, or because they’re naive, or because some conspiring “they” are hiding the truth. You can trace everything back as far as you like, but Putin chose to invade.

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Exactly.

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Drones are remotely piloted David. The V1 was just launched in the general direction of London and crashed when it ran out of fuel. The V2 was a missile had internal guidance.

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