I don’t see how the blame for this can be laid anywhere else but at Putin’s door, people can shout ‘NATO expansion’ all they like but he has been planning for years to take back Ukraine, what he didn’t count on was the fierce resistance and worldwide support that followed the invasion.
Whilst I believe some sort of settlement will happen I think the rest of the world will just accept and adapt to the conflict in the short term as there are other issues just as important.
Is it Russia rather than just Putin. I know that it is often called Putins War by UK politicians.
I don’t think so, Russia was doing just fine before Putin came to power but once he was in total control things changed.
Putin and those around him are all ex KGB and have a built in suspicion of the West.
The rise of the oligarchs whilst the majority of Russians struggled resulted in the increasing use of authoritarian powers. Now the only tv is the Russian state tv and like many others before him Putin has embarked on a foreign war to coalesce public opinion behind him.
He is using Ukraine as an example of saving Russia from the West and NATO expansionism and the general public have very little or no access to unbiased journalism.
He cannot go on increasing conscription and sending bodies back in bags for ever. Mothers will not accept the continued slaughter of their sons.
Not going to happen though, is it Roger, meanwhile people die. Peace needs to be worked at.
Any proof for that Tim?
I’m not too sure of that. What for example?
Rather worrying aspect of the long game in this war, as put well in this article.
(I’ll give a small edit for those interested without a tall enough firewall ladder)
Ukraine is getting more and more skilled at knocking down drones, but there is a growing imbalance: Many of its defensive weapons like surface-to-air missiles cost far more than the drones do. And that, some military experts say, may favor Moscow over the long haul.
Artem Starosiek, the head of Molfar, a Ukrainian consultancy that supports the country’s war effort, estimated that it costs up to seven times more to down a drone with a missile than it does to launch one. That is an equation that the Kremlin may be banking on, some analysts say.
The Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones that Moscow has increasingly been relying on since October are relatively uncomplicated devices and fairly cheap, while the array of weapons used to shoot them out of the sky can be much pricier, according to experts. The self-destructing drones can cost as little as $20,000 to produce, while the cost of firing a surface-to-air missile can range from $140,000 for a Soviet-era S-300 to $500,000 for a missile from an American NASAMS.
Aware of the risk that Western allies may grow weary of the cost of supporting Ukraine’s defense — a concern heightened by the transfer of leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives to the Republicans — Ukrainian officials have warned that Russian tactics are changing.
The White House has said that it is aware of reports that the Kremlin and Tehran are seeking to establish a joint production line for drones in Russia. Over the long term, Mr. Boulegue said, that would allow Moscow to deploy still more drones in attacks.
“That is going to put more stress on Ukraine’s air defense system,” he said.
That helps explain why Ukraine has adapted its own tactics, in part by conducting strikes on bases deep inside Russian territory. The goal, Mr. Boulegue said, is “to increase deterrence, which they hope will place less stress on air defense.”
For now, Moscow has changed how it is using the drones it already has in hand.
Russian forces have increasingly been launching their explosive drones at night and low along the Dnipro River, making it harder for Ukraine to detect them, according to Yurii Ihnat, the spokesman for the Ukrainian air force, who was speaking on Ukrainian radio.
“The radar antenna that detects the target will not see it if the target is flying below the level of the antenna,” he said.
Since the war began in February, both sides have used drones not just for reconnaissance but also for attacks. It is the first time the devices have been so widely deployed in a European war.
George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said he suspected that Ukraine was deploying more complex and expensive air defense systems to protect sensitive and critical infrastructure.
It costs far less, for example, to shoot down a drone than to repair a destroyed power station, Mr. Starosiek noted. And then there is the human factor.
“People are still alive,” he said.
Some military experts view Ukraine as a testing ground for state-of-the-art weapons and information systems that may foreshadow the shape of warfare for generations to come.
Since the war began in February, both sides have used drones not just for reconnaissance but also for attacks. It is the first time the devices have been so widely deployed in a European war.
Not sure that is correct, @Susannah , weren’t the V1s and 2s used against London in the 40s drones?
An unmanned aerial vehicle, commonly known as a drone, is an aircraft without any human pilot, crew, or passengers on board. UAVs are a component of an unmanned aircraft system, which includes adding a ground-based controller and a system of communications with the UAV. Wikipedia
I am no expert but the footage I have seen on my tv seems to show that they do not travel at supersonic speed, so could they not be shot down by more conventional means? Especially if spotters were employed along a likely route, as happened also in the 2nd World War.
That may be true, but it’s “whataboutery”, isn’t it?
The fact remains that Putin’s Russia invaded Ukraine.
A sovereign nation is entitled to choose its own allies.
And conscripts are soldiers. This continuing criticism of Ukraine and apologism for Russia is simply seeking to avoid the fact that the invasion and subsequent war were solely Putin’s decision.
I think most people just find the anti-Ukraine pro-Russia rhetoric incomprehensible. It’s not because they’re uninformed in some way, or because they’re naive, or because some conspiring “they” are hiding the truth. You can trace everything back as far as you like, but Putin chose to invade.
Exactly.
Drones are remotely piloted David. The V1 was just launched in the general direction of London and crashed when it ran out of fuel. The V2 was a missile had internal guidance.
Good article Susannah, Patriot missiles are $4M a pop.
I think the writer leans into the word widely used. I also think there might be a difference between a pilotless flying bomb on a pre programmed route and remotely controlled drones, with cameras and/or explosives, being routed in real time.
Sorry, it is quite a long article and I redacted bits. I will replace it here for you:
“The military authorities in Kyiv have said little about the details of their air defenses — in keeping with the operational secrecy that has shrouded much of their war planning — or about the cost, making analysis difficult.
But it is known that while Ukraine’s forces have enjoyed some success against drones using antiaircraft guns and even small-arms fire, that has changed as the Russians have taken to launching assaults at night. Now Kyiv is also relying heavily on missiles fired from warplanes and the ground. Over the weekend, officials said, Ukraine employed surface-to-air missiles fired from NASAMS — for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System — multiple times to counter drones.
Even so, evaluating the wisdom of downing drones with missiles is not always straightforward.”
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Well I don’t see it that way Porridge. I see all the finger pointing (and rightly so) at Russia but no deeper analysis of the real root causes from way back. All focus is on the secondary tumor while the original cancer is ignored. Both need to be addressed. I just can’t believe that the US gets off the hook for the misery caused in the M/E and now portrays itself as the squeaky clean in this war. If NATO expansion had been handled properly IMHO then there wouldn’t have been a war and terrible human suffering we’re witnessing.
After (or even before) this is all over, what new disaster will clumsy US foreign policy bring? War in the South China Seas?
Do you see my point?
Well I accept the clarification of the definition of the word ‘drone’, but am pleased to see that I wasn’t far of the mark when suggesting that more conventional methods of defence could be used. Of course, low tech, without radar, solutions are difficult if not impossible (searchlights?) at night.
But that link to Aphrodite is something that I was unaware of and found it fascinating. As an aside to that and the death of Lt. Kennedy, I knew that his father, a very rich man, the American ambassador to Britain in the run up to war, had ambitions for all his sons but for all his wealth could not avoid the violent deaths of 3 of them. I think he was not considered a friend to Britain as he was of the firm opinion that it would collapse as quickly as France had.
If NATO expansion had been handled properly IMHO then there wouldn’t have been a war and terrible human suffering we’re witnessing.
I presume you mean that Ukrainian and Georgian membership of NATO should have been expedited rather than shouted about. Perhaps that is true.
So that we could have had a war in 2009 instead of today? No David, guarantees of Russian security should have been provided in parallel with NATO expansion is what I was suggesting.
I suspect that updated and improved fire control radar, possibly slaved to other sensor platforms could make mobile AAA guns like the ubiquitous Shilka a far most cost effective way to bring down drones.
Improving the performance of the proximity fuses over those of the standard Soviet era 23mm ones would also be a great improvement in effectiveness against smaller targets.
That too, yes, and I remember saying back in the 90s that Russia should be considered for membership of the alliance. After all, maniac leaders not withstanding (and anyone can have those but some are sidelined more easily than others), once communism was rejected, there was no reason not to.
I agree, better inside the tent…
The Russians are guilty of magical thinking in more ways than one…
Welcome, Lalla!
Interesting times indeed 