I worked in Ukraine for a few years about 15 years ago. Not Russia, admittedly, but at that time many of the attitudes were linked and most of my Ukrainian friends considered themselves brothers with Russia and the notion of their bigger neighbour being a threat was thought to be preposterous when I suggested it in drinking sessions.
I recall thinking at the time that this notion of Russian exceptionalism reminded me of post-empire Britain and feeling somewhat smug that we British have matured and come to accept our new role in the world under US hegemony, manipulating our position to great advantage and “punching above our weight” to use that awful phrase.
Fast forward 15 years and I am not smug any longer. We have become Russified - pining for a lost empire with delusions of grandeur and, post-Brexit, punching well below our weight as the world laughs at our pompous and ridiculous officers of state. Meanwhile that US hegemony has unravelled, due to global economics as much as mismanagement during the Trump era, and there is a vacuum of leadership right now. Strong US leadership may have been distasteful in parts, but I’m not sure I feel safer in its absence.
Having a little chuckle here. The signing of Acts or Treaties never stopped a war or anything else, for that matter. Mind set of “rules were made to be broken” . Reality check.
In considering the facts, one must also allow for cultural thought processes. It may be the EU, but to be blunt, an English “person” will never think or feel like a French “person” or Russian, German etc.
Additionally, the history of each county and previous issues are all simply simmering just beneath the “EU” surface.
We are facing a global battle for resources in the face of the climate crisis. The Russian push is only the first of what will happen in many countries around the world.
Just a thought.
He sees weakness from the US and from Europe/NATO. The debacle of the exit from Afghanistan along with the pulling back from a leading world role by the US under Trump and Biden’s general hopelessness is allowing him to try to exploit any fizures in NATO. This, combined with his friendship with China, emboldens him. The broadly Western policy of achieving net zero has also led him to carefully calculate how he can hold sway by manipulating the gas and oil markets. This is a lot more serious than throwing his toys around I feel.
Well maybe that is the whole idea cooked up between Russia and China. See what happens with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (having already successfully annexed Crimea with ease) and then China will invade Taiwan and the west will stand by.
It’s testing the determination of the West - and I think we all know that we will do very little.
So bullying will continue and get worse and worse - who would be next ? Japan?
The West has spent the best part of three decades taking Russian and Chinese money and investment so maybe this is payback, things were much simpler when both had stagnant economies.