I loved the way you kept us on tenterhooks until the end of your post 
I certainly hope you are right.
Indeed. But that will prove to be an own goal - I doubt that either Jenrick or Badenough will last as leader until the next election. The worry there is that DePfeffel makes a comeback…
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Absolutely unsurprising.
Trump will do anything to win.
Unfortunately the outcome of the ele tion does not rest with the popular vote, but with the Electoral College and that is much more dangerous for the Harris campaign.
The prediction I was hunching on, was based on the political scientist’s analysis of the history and record of the key electoral vote battleground swing states over 11 presidencies. And these were, in her analysis, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
There are variables in her analysis but she concentrated only on those states that could lead to 270 electoral winning votes or more. The more the better!
She says all that Harris needs is Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to win.
Yes, but that’s a “known known” so to speak and should be factored into the campaign (hence the attention on “swing” states with large numbers of college votes).
I presume that’s “of the swing states”. She needs rather more than that overall 
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I obviously haven’t made myself clear, sorry. This is the outcome I’m speaking of.
The blue states are generally regarded as firmly democratic, and the red states firmly republican. The swing states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are considered by the political scientist as most likely to go blue, which she shows as blue here. These three states, plus those firmly democratic states, leads to a Harris win.
Obama’s oratory skills undiminished, the two minute clip in this article well worth a watch IMO.
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Sorry, I was pulling your leg slightly.
Yes - however it’s always possible that something odd can happen and the normally “safe” counties turn Red.
Especially when the Republicans have quietly been “fixing” things in their favour - hence my linking the “Mother Jones” article (and I know you acknowledged that) which is what I (also less clearly than I could have) was alluding to with the “known knowns” point - what is likely to trip Harris up is the “unknowns” in the election, including more effective Republican interference this time around.
My political scientist has considered that. She’s meticulous in studying her data and in considering what’s going on day to day, but as of a few days ago remains with her prediction.
But I, you, she and everyone else do not have the crystal ball that tells all. One thing is certainly certain. It’ll be Trump or Harris - barring accidents!
From what I’ve been reading and listening to, the Democrats are well aware of the Republican ‘fixes’. With so much money at their disposal, they are legally fixing the fixes and succeeding – from what I hear - and are anticipating more to come, and are ready.
But I don’t quite know how they can fix the Musk lottery fix. It’s probably too late to do anything meaningful.
Trouble is he’s preaching to the converted.
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That tends to be the case whichever side of the political fence one is sitting.
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“Ideologues gonna ideologue, innit…”
Interesting listening to Labour and Conservatives fighting on W@O about Trump’s election interference complaint. Instead of uniting and taking a UK view, they feed Trump’s divisive tactics and squabble amongst themselves. Trump will love how he can lob a bomb, spurious or not over the pond and that rather than showing solidarity they disappear up their own bottoms.
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Well the Tories want Trump to win so they are hardly likely to support the idea of Labour party members working on behalf of Kamala Harris.
It’s another example of Party first and stuff the Country.
This is sauce for the goose ≡ sauce for the gander though - Trump has seemingly no problem with Truss, Farage and Johnson campaigning on *his* behalf.
I hate to resort to whataboutery but sometimes there is no other appropriate option.
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Indeed.
An angry lawyer reports leaked documents from Trump’s transition team. On the list for Attorney General is Judge Aileen Cannon…! There’s a place there also for Trump’s lawyer Todd Blanche who defended him in the hush money trial. And a whole lot more on the list. The stench of corruption.
Scroll past the advert!
Haven’t found any confirmation yet of a Trump transition leak, but I don’t doubt the lawyer’s reporting.
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