Where did the predictions of a bitter cold winter get started?

We kind of did, but then we had spent five years in SW Wales and knew all about rain... :-(

Historically, given the volume of coal dug up and used, the sale of it to be burned by industry (and domestic use, of course) alone, let alone the carbon output of the things made in the factories, where the UK would have been the largest carbon dioxide produced on the planet and the roughly 180 years that went on until the 1960s when it went into decline will have, as scientifically proven, set in chain climate change. That for a few years low outputs some people can be self-righteous about them is not helpful. Denial will see even the richest of the rich realising there is no longer any refuge or way of turning back too. Read about Greenland where recently barren, frozen parts of the country are now growing forests, Lapland in the north of Scandinavia where reindeer are gradually in decline and then Neil take your own side. If you go with the likes of the Daily Wail's hatred, sold heavily by Paul Dacre in every other story he allows through as publisher, then leave a letter of apology to your descendants to open in a hundred years time.

Did you research the various weather situations in France before buying a house here? We are about 30kms north of the Pyrenees near Pau and 130 from the Atlantic coast at 250m elevation. The weather has been getting slowly wetter and the average temperature getting lower since we moved here 9 years ago and getting more changeable.

The southern Alps, Ticino where my wife comes from for instance, have had snow well before usual and on far lower ground than most people remember. Parts of France and Germany have had snow. There is lots of substance in what Jo is saying which is really about politicians and the rich business community versus science and the scientist said several years back that in terms of cycles we were due a cracker. Each baddish one we've had people have thought that's it. Perhaps we were all thinking wishfully...

There was a time, quite recently, when the UK was producing hardly any CO2 at all and thus not contributing to global warming so we all basked in our righteousness. The downside as we shivered under our blankets was hospital operations being carried out under hurricane lamps, no TV after 10.30, no fuel for the car plus many other modern conveniences. This happened in January and February 1974 under the Heath government's 3 day week. Greenpeace and other organisations like them are non-elected yet say they are protecting the whole of the world's population from the naughty people. Just because someone has different views to you and reads the Daily Mail doesn't mean he's wrong! When I posted this I just did an internet search and this man's blog popped up and it seems to be a quite reasonable explanation of what happened to this particular story.

We had our last snowfall of the year in May and just had another one last Friday afternoon; and its been peeing down with rain ever since; and its cold - around 7 degrees at mid-day today and that's without the howling wind from the Massif Centrale. Our "summer" lasted about 3 months (Jul-Sep) don't tell me its not a bad winter. As for "the worst ever etc etc" I don't care - its cold, wet and windy and I'm off to Spain on Friday for 2 weeks to get away from it !

Mmmmm, coldest winter for a long time or not....it's a diversion. Global warming comes with HARSH and UNPREDICTABLE weather spikes...the effects are unpredictable BECAUSE of global warming. It means certain areas will have severe extreme conditions, including harsh, more dangerous winters.

here is a little something from NASA, who, one would expect, given they are a government funded scientific body and an American one at that, so with all the associated links to big pharma, monsanto, golman sachs, rosthchilds etc...might be MORE likely to be biased, with tendancies to ward off climate change predictions as scaremongering nonsense in order to downplay the position of GREENPEACE.

Niel, the page you link to and get the article from is very interesting. As a seasoned (pun) anti-poverty activist and a scientist, I can DEFINITELY claim that this German blog author is extremely biased against climate-change science. He uses the predictions of a couple of institutes and the ensuing common debate about it being a solid prediction, as evidence firmly against climate change. He is also a bit short of little-grey-cells ; he cites the Daily Mail more than once as a reputable paper.

He rabidly insists that any suggestion of a harsh winter being caused by arctic melt, is impossible to predict, and cites the same two sources of the prediction as never having made the claims. None of this makes sense. Why focus on harsh winters or their accuracy in prediction as evidence that there is no climate change? This is so illogical it is beyond a joke. Why even bother to question the questioners over this principle.

There are THOUSANDS of climate research institutes globally and they ALL -including NASA- accept that climate change and it's dire consequences are already a reality, that it is man-made and will continue to cause very great suffering worldwide unless we act to protect people from it's consequences and try to reverse the process by switching stuff off and investing in sustainable technology.

It's not rocket science. It's common sense. NONE of the climate change centres based at universities in any advanced scientific centres of research have said a harsh winter is easy to predict...that is not in dispute...but what is serious about this man's damning response to the reactions, and rumours of THIS particular winter coming, is his anti-climate change stance and the fact he is trying to use this prediction to dispute the predictions about climate change generally.

There is NO "endless supply of free anything". We all die eventually, even the mountains crumble eventually, but the question is, are we going to continue to allow a few very powerful and obscenely rich people to tread on millions of us on their way further up the financial ladder? It is those people, who fund climate change scepticism and vehemently oppose peaceful protest as a way of countering their propoganda.

He calls Greenpeace activists government-funded thugs. He could not be more wrong on both counts. A more peaceful bunch of non-government funded citizens you could not find in a Buddhist monastery. But, speaking as one of them, I doubt I would be able to hold my temper if faced with someone this blinkered. I would need a tablet or two first.

I find this man frightening in his vehemence towards scientists and obsessive anti-climate change stance. I should find it interesting to know who is paying his salary or whether he is trying to ensure people continue dying in their millions just out of the goodness of his own pocket..

I find the responses to his blog even more frightening. I feel threatened by their hatred. I shouldn't be so shocked, because they make it clear they are firmly part of the richest and most powerful in society and they are firmly against any change to make poverty history. They are already killing people in their millions and have been for thousands of years, but it's very interesting to finally see them coming out of the woodwork...

Like the one started by the breathalyzer manufacturer who started a rumour that the government were introducing a requirement that every driver would have to carry two and they would of course have a shelf life...........

I seem to remember an old joke about the rumor that the red indian tribes were stocking up wood to prepare for a bad winter.

It went full circle via the local met office .Perhaps someone can remember it correctly .

Weather forecasting is by no means a precise science as I can testify from over 20 years military aviation around the world - too many time have I relied upon the met man only to find the destination fogged out or howling cross-winds that weren't expected!

My point is, they can't get it right for the next 24 hours within the local area, so how can we believe such long-term speculation? Yes, there are trends from upper air movements and the global changes that can now be observed, but that doesn't mean that they can glibly forecast the "worst winter for 100 years" with any sort of accuracy. Fact is, what we get is not going to change because of a forecast, "weather" you like it or not !

Well all I know is that "my mate Dominique", who's local as they come, reckons that the on dit round these parts is that it's going to be fairly mild - but damp. We'll see....

The winter of 2011/2012 was unusual, so we were told, but that didn't stop the pool from freezing and the pipework and pump from splitting. Drained down the winter of 2012/2013 just in case and got washed away instead with very limited snow and frost. What to do this year?

Does anyone on here know what is happening to the Winter Fuel Allowance? I have heard the so called UK government fiddled the figures using French overseas territories temperatures to make France a warm country. Jokers!!

I received a £100 WFA initially and after a lot of hassling last year got the full £200 eventually.

It was pretty cold here a couple of years ago.It got down to -10°C here in Montpellier which is extremely unusual.

Also remember the winter when the whole of the UK was covered in snow - there was that lovely photo taken of it from a satellite? That wasn't that long ago either. So we've had some pretty chilly winters recently already.

The maize cutting always waits until it starts raining and then the contractors (it's rarely farmers round here who can afford the huge machines) rush off and the roads are rarely ever cleaned. There was a fatal motorbike accident two years ago in the next village. As there's a high proportion of clay it nicely liquefies. Never mind there's a car was organised by the local amicale laique afterwards so you can pay the farmer fathers of the local children to wash off the clay they put on the roads. In fact car washing round here is pretty much a waste of rations. The way energy prices are going all winters will be cold anyway.

Yeah but how do they know? It could lead to a new weather forecasting phrase "Suivre les Mouches" :-))

When a very cold winter is comin', flies will move into your warm house to prepare their shelter... ;-)

The farmers around here seem to know short term. Today one couldn't move for maize munchers & huge tractor/trailer rigs driven by geriatric drivers who are brought out of retirement to get the crop in before it rains. Sunny all day, tonight it rained. Bang on as usual.

Hahaha... Our long-haired German Shepherd goes out, lays in his favourite place which becomes rapidly muddy. If he comes in needing a serious brush the other dog goes to her basket for a serious sulk. I can do what I want for an hour or so before walkies, he being too wet to brush properly when he arrives back. So, support for the science you describe. However, winter, cold and nasty, etc. Still reckon it started with a 'weather toe', somebody's rheumatic twinge or that type of thing. What is uncanny is that those people are too often right!

My short range forecast is simple. The dog goes out for it's morning pee. If it comes back wet it's raining signifying a long leisurely breakfast & a good look here to see what mischief is afoot :-))

My gran used to have a ceramic donkey with a bit of string for a tail and when it was damp it meant rain was coming. No good for a long range weather forecast though. I think it was put out by the wood suppliers here.