@Geof_Cox …my thinking exactly…and at a macro level markets set the value of one currency against another taking into account many factors, governments can influence them by their policies to a certain extent but in the final analysis market forces reign supreme
Though forex is more ‘betting shop’ than ‘market’!
Not strictly true…dealers “bet” on what they think movement and one value against the other will be, but the use of forward contracts is a key lubricator of trade (and personal) by guaranteeing the value of a currency needed in the future.
I voted to remain in the EU. I spend most of my time in London as I still work 3 days a week. I also spend a quarter of the year in France. Brexit has raised earnings in the UK so is popular with the working people. I am a carpenter roofer and my rate has increased by £100 a day. workers here are now valued as they’re are not too many here to undercut them. Brexit is not the disaster I was expecting.
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Living costs will inevitable go through the roof.
I must admit this sounds, at first glance, like the nuttiest thing I’ve read in a while. Have the rates of people who work in Tesco, care homes, behind the bar in a pub etc etc also increased by £100 a day? I’m pretty sure most of those people weren’t earning anywhere near £100 a day to start with so unless they’ve suddenly had a their pay trebled, by increasing the rate of some so massively just sounds like it’s gouging the less well off who will need carpentry and roofing services.
I don’t think Bazza is thinking too clearly. He previously posted in this thread “if a few hundred asians came in and started selling veg and meat at normal prices the supermarkets would have to wake up and smell the coffee” - so it seems he would welcome immigration that brings price competition but reject immigration that brings wage competition.
(Apart from the fact, of course, that there has been endless research on the question of whether immigration lowers wages, with the conclusion that it doesn’t. My guess is that some developers, caught out by the pandemic, are desperate to complete some projects because of the way they were financially structured - but the net result in the end will be fewer projects, hence lower wages. The economic evidence is that there has been hardly any indigenous growth in the UK for years - it has all been down to immigration - ie. without immigration the average Brit will be poorer.)
I think Bazza might have exaggerated a bit although I do know pay rates for construction trades have gone up rapidly over the last couple of years, the current day rate for a carpenter is between £160 to £200.
As with all major economic events there are winners and losers and workers in sectors where there is a labour shortage (think HGV drivers) are bound to see big spikes in pay.
Bazza was referring to France in the earlier post you refer to, his comment on increases earnings referring UK so I think his thoughts are clear.
The construction industry in the UK has always been a yoyo of pay increases and decreases depending on demand.
Well done Bazza, your skills are being rewarded.
What difference does which country is referred to make? He’s still arguing that immigration leads to competition on both prices and wages, and that this is both a good thing and a bad thing - which is not in itself illogical, but it is then illogical to draw the conclusion that brexit is ‘not a disaster for working people’ on this basis.
(Apart from the fact that - as I also pointed out - it’s not true that immigration lowers wages anyway!)
Yes, of course, you’re spot on @tim17. Which is entirely different to…
…which seems to suggest something entirely different to that a few lucky and in demand segments have had a significant uplift.
Of course it does.
UK has exploited immigrants by paying low wages, admittedly because Brits refuse to do mundane low paid jobs simply because the state will pay them more to do nothing.
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You said it yourself. Wages in the UK were depressed because UK companies exploited immigrants, and government policies allowed it to happen. With different policies, such as in the remaining EU member states the result would have been different, as it is in the remaining EU member states where free movement of labour has not generally led to depressed wages. But the UK has traditionally been a very cost-conscious economy where consumers want max bang for their buck and there is keen price competition, and until Brexit nobody had managed to square the circle and find a way to pay high wages whilst keeping prices low.
But it is good to know that employers have now seen the light, the promised land has now been defined as a land of high wages and low prices, and it is now about to come true to defy the economists who claim this is not a sustainable model.
The unenlightened might be confused by the fact that British Gas and other companies are currently firing workers and rehiring them on lower wages, but I see the government has just rejected a bill to make this practice illegal so it obviously isn’t seen as a problem.
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It’s an absolute mystery. Keir Starmer fought hard not to leave. So did David Lammy et al. Why are not Nige and Boris being trashed. Weird. Mind you what with Belarus and Poland defying the EU club rules and Mrs Merkel (I always want to say Mrs Merton - RIP Caroline Aherne) and maybe Emmanuel getting the elbow where will it all lead?
Well, that’s your claim JohnBoy. So where’s the evidence?
The real facts here are that there is some evidence that in a very few areas, in a very few professions, immigration might temporarily lower wages - but generally speaking, it tends rather to raise wages.
I presume that you are referring to ‘here’ as France whereas my reference was to the UK.
Writing in bold print doesn’t make facts real, I see it as the same as writing in capital letters ie shouting to get your point of view across.
No - I was referring to the UK - though the evidence probably goes for most countries - and using bold simply to emphasise key words. Touch of the ad hominems there, JohnBoy.
Here’s one account of some studies in this area. It does confirm that ‘any declines in the wages and employment of UK-born workers in the short run can be offset by rising wages and employment in the long run’ - though it doesn’t attempt to address the general effects of immigration on growth, and hence the indirect jobs and wages gains arising out of the general increase in prosperity brought by immigration.
Oh - and that EU immigration has ‘no statistically significant effects’ at all - so the ‘brexit’ argument is even weaker than the wider ‘immigration is bad’ argument.
Certainly not intended
Perhaps the situation isnt as bad in the UK as it was a while ago.
I haven’t lived there for13 years but when I did there were many times when competition from immigrants lowered wages in my industry.
That is all in the past for me thankfully and a carefree life in France is my reward.
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