GBP to EUR is up 2.5% in the last 30 days alone and is now at a high for 2025!
Interest rate cuts? Not so fast! The chance of three rate cuts in 2025 has dropped to just 20%.
Sterling is climbing back after a wave of positive economic data, making a UK recession less likely and shifting forecasts on interest rates.:
0.1% GDP growth last week eased recession fears
Unemployment dipped to 4.4% yesterday
Stronger inflation data today is reshaping market views
While the Chancellor won’t be celebrating yet, this boosts confidence and eases pressure on Labour’s economic record—good news for GBP!
The UK interest rate decision later this month is six days before the Spring statement so we expect lots of movement as we get closer.
In essence interest rates are going to stay higher for longer, increasing demand for the Pound from investors so its value is climbing. In Europe, the German election has resulted in weakness for the single currency.
