It took some doing, but I read all of the article and to my mind it needs serious discussion around the world! Thanks for posting the link Geoff, most sensible & non hysterical information I’ve seen yet!,
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“I wonder, therefore, why covid 19 is considered to be so much more serious than flu despite the death rate being tiny in comparison?”
Trying to respond to these two extracts from earlier posts, I’d argue that when this pandemic passes in the West (if indeed it ever does elsewhere) I think we’ll find that the death toll is far higher than that from annual flu in Western Europe. Once Corona-19 gets a hold in the South African townships, the slums of Lagos and South and Central American favelas; the death toll will rocket. Americ
The death toll is no longer tiny in comparison - in fact for the moment Covid19 has outstripped even TB as the leading cause of death due to infectious disease.
It is true that Covid19 is the new kid on the block and might just be a flash in the pan (can I squeeze any more clichés into this post?) compared with “reliable” stand-bys like TB but it looks like we will be lucky to get away with fewer than 20k deaths in UK in the next three weeks so it is certainly going to rival 'flu
As Mark says what it will be like if (or more probably when) it takes hold in Africa is anybody’s guess.
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On the few occasions when I have had flu, I have felt and weak and feverish. As a result, I have gone to bed for about 5 days, drunk plenty of fluids and kept warm. But if I had Covid-19, I might hardly feel any different and happily go around passing it on to numerable other people, some of whom might die as a result. That seems to be the special characteristic of this virus that makes it easy to pass on and difficult to trace back to its source.
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You are assuming “normal” flu is not asymptomatic. And it can be. is flu asymptomatic - Google Suche
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Thanks for the link. So that would suggest that the important difference is that there is not yet sufficient immunity or partial immunity against Covid-19 in the “herd.”
Aha! There’s the exact point. Its unclear to me just what the difference with Corvid 19 is - and I think that’s Mark’s point.
I don’t agree with how he couched the question, but I strongly suspect there’s a lot we are not being told.
I am a big believer in Occam’s Razor, but to completely tank the entire world economy - and even Boris and Trump are in on this - is an incredible response.
" The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 , the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims."
Hard to imagine what that would have done to the world economy. . . . . .
But medieval historians have done a lot of work on the economic effects of the Black Death - which were enormous, including the subsequent centuries-long transition from feudalism to capitalism in Europe.
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Seems to me that some people cling to the belief that “someone” knows all the answers but isn’t tellling, and is using their exclusive knowledge for their own devious ends.
It’s a way of refusing to face the fact that there are things beyond the limits of human knowledge and control.
I guess it’s less scary to contemplate an enemy in human shape because that means humans are still in control, rather than to contemplate a faceless enemy that we don’t know how to fight, or a hostile god that we don’t know how to placate, or just a vast uncaring nothingness that humans can’t shape or influence.
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How Trump’s attitude toward coronavirus has shifted https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52145270
That’s both passive aggressive and you are putting words into my mouth. Disagree by all means, but please don’t invent things I did not say or patronise.
If you believe the government is being fully open and sharing all their data then that’s fine, but I am in good company - see Why isn't the government publishing more data about coronavirus deaths? | Jeni Tennison | The Guardian as an example,
'Flu kills just as Covid-19 does. Between a quarter of a million and half a million people die every year from 'flu and 'flu-related complications. BUT the number of people who contract 'flu are numbered in the hundreds of millions making the death rate 0.01%, which is something I think you choose to ignore, . Furthermore, this virus is far more infectious than 'flu and has a variable incubation period, whereas you know if you’ve got 'flu quite within a day. 'Flu is a known quantity, and is a familiar old enemy and has been with us for a very long time, during which much of the population has built up a slight natural resistance to the worst effects and every year, a new vaccine is offered to those of us most at risk. Also 'flu is seasonal and we do not yet know whether Covid-19 will follow the same path. For you and others to suggest that this virus is nothing special is both irresponsible and dangerous - reminds me of Gove’s infamous “We’ve had enough of experts” remark. It is true that the actual number of people who have contracted the virus is probably very much higher than the stated (tested) figure (particularly in the States), but is still unlikely to be anywhere near the number of people who “enjoy” 'flu every year. And as for “conspiracy” - what f***g conspiracy ? No conspiracy survives in government circles for more than ten minutes. I think you are being mischievous in the extreme with your comments and display considerable ignorance.
We will get through this because Homo Sapiens is a very resilient animal and we can move very quickly when push comes to shove (viz. the Australian announcement of testing two vaccines). The authorities world-wide have been caught with their knickers around their ankles and now is the time when we see which ones will emerge untarnished and which will be seen to be the frauds they are - Trump, Johnson, Bolsonaro, et al.
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No Guy, it’s not passive aggressive. There was no emotion behind it at all, I put it forward quite dispassionately as a theory. OK, yes I quoted the words you said, and I went on to make a point that’s been in my mind lately but which I haven’t seen expressed or discussed, so I thought I would air it. I made a point in my own words, not trying to pretend it was your words or anyone else’s, about conspiracy theorists. Of whom you may or may not count yourself one but that’s beside the point. I quoted from your post to explain what prompted me to introduce onto this thread a comment that might otherwise have seemed totally random. It was a comment that you made. I think you’ve overreacted, but in the interests of keeping the forum a civil place and not giving Cat and James any more stress, I apologise if my post caused you any personal offence and I’ve removed the quote, so there is nothing to suggest my theory was aimed at any one individual.
Of course governments aren’t being fully open and sharing all their data. Governments never are and never do, and why should they. I don’t expect them to. We already have data overload from the data that is in the public domain.
Fewer serfs and farms for free! Can’t expect anything like that this time, but it will certainly shake out some of the less efficient businesses to the advantage of those that remain. Could also hurt some of the biggest global enterprises that have based their business plans on the mistaken belief that growth is unlimited.
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It’s Trump - he has answers - just incorrect ones!
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It’s gone quite quiet in here…
This should liven things up! I will point out now that Lord Sumption’s views are not necessarily mine!
If one is truly dispassionate - though it would take Spock-like (or perhaps Trumpian) levels of emotional detachment- then I admit that there is an argument for allowing life to continue as normal, to continue economic activity and accept that between 5 and 15% of all humanity will die because of the virus.
But most value human life over sterling or euros or dollars rather than the other way round - as someone said (ish) “we know how to restart the economy - people, less so”
Covid19 might take more old folk with existing medical conditions but it still takes them prematurely and it takes the young as well - I am reminded of Tolkien’s words, voiced by Gandalf:
Though perhaps judgement would be replaced in this case by “the pursuit of economic gain”.
It is clear that we are going to see in the region of 31k deaths over the next fortnight, who know how many more after than, it is true that we will not know how much excess mortality has occurred for months to come but surely, now of all times when our PM has been hospitalised with Covid19, we can finally admit that it is emphatically not “a mild case of the 'flu”.
This is why it was dangerous.
The actions were taken to try and mitigate the anticipated rise in mortality.
We’re now at the point where we start to find out whether they worked.
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