I have not been following every piece of media coverage, social or mainstream, but I cannot fail to be exposed to some of the facts & figures bandied about.
What I have noticed is that the numbers of deaths caused by flu in previous years seem to be far greater than those so far attributed to covid 19 yet it is only this year that the new extreme measures have been introduced.
To date, the UK has 335 deaths from covid 19. In previous years government figures show a far higher number over a similar timescale from flu. In 2017/18, the last complete time period that figures were available, flu accounted for 26,408 deaths in England alone.
I can see that behaviour patterns need to be modified in order to be socially responsible but it seems that some measures are extreme in the way it is affecting the world economy & individual fiscal security.
Why does a virus that generally is no more lethal than those that have come before (SARS, MERS etc) warrant such extreme action? It is not as if everyone who becomes infected will die, in fact those who are likely to are exactly the same as the group who would also succumb in the event of catching flu.
Some have said that this is more serious because there is as yet no vaccine as there is for flu, yet the flu vaccine is far from 100% effective.
I wonder, therefore, why covid 19 is considered to be so much more serious than flu despite the death rate being tiny in comparison?
Is there some kind of conspiracy going on? https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports
Mark wait a few weeks and then ask this question again
Look up the word exponential. Look at an exponential graph and try to work out why the figures so far have been low.
602 people died in Italy yesterday - a similar amount will die in UK in 2 weeks.
What your reasoning doesn’t appear to have taken into account is that, firstly normal(?) winter flu is a different virus and that it hasn’t stopped just because there’s a new virus on the block.
Secondly, as far as I understand, the latter is both far more infectious and more dangerous than usual for elderly people.
Lastly, writing as someone who lived for several years in post-Apartheid South Africa, just wait until it hits the huge South African townships and their so-called informal settlements, where people live in very close proximity, have no real access to sanitation or healthcare and where at least a quarter are already HIV positve, often with TB related vulnerabilties…
Despite Boris Johnson’s dithering, the first world’s current situation is comparatively minor compared to the above scenario.
I don’t think you meant to answer me
The prospect is hideous indeed.
If the figures from China are to be believed, they have had a total of 3270 deaths to date & we are told that there are no new indigenous cases there. Considering the population of China, the mortality rate of this new virus is nothing like that of the common flu. So if the UK were to match the chinese figure (albeit with a smaller population) then flu deaths outstrip covid ones by 23128, yet when flu appeared there was no worldwide shutdown.
We are talking about a virus that most people, if they get it, will recover from. It is not as virulent as, say Ebola.
So most people will recover but you are willing to accept that the 500,000 people who have been predicted to die as a result of Coronavirus in Britain alone is a fair enough price to pay. Heartless ********!
From the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, November 2019 -
" Objectives
In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season. Influenza epidemics have been indicated as one of the potential determinants of such an excess. The objective of our study was to estimate the influenza-attributable contribution to excess mortality during the influenza seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17 in Italy.
Methods
We used the EuroMomo and the FluMomo methods to estimate the annual trend of influenza-attributable excess death rate by age group. Population data were provided by the National Institute of Statistics, data on influenza like illness and confirmed influenza cases were provided by the National Institutes of Health. As an indicator of weekly influenza activity (IA) we adopted the Goldstein index, which is the product of the percentage of patients seen with influenza-like illness (ILI) and percentage of influenza-positive specimens, in a given week.
Results
We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly. However children less than 5 years old also reported a relevant influenza attributable excess death rate in the 2014/15 and 2016/17 seasons (1.05/100,000 and 1.54/100,000 respectively).
Conclusions
Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy. In conclusion, the unpredictability of the influenza virus continues to present a major challenge to health professionals and policy makers. Nonetheless, vaccination remains the most effective means for reducing the burden of influenza, and efforts to increase vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccine strategies (such as vaccinating healthy children) should be considered to reduce the influenza attributable excess mortality experienced in Italy and in Europe in the last seasons."
What?? Just trying to work out how you figure that I would “accept” any deaths or there being a price to pay.
In China, where the virus supposedly started & now reports no new indigenous cases, the total (reported) toll is 3270. Bearing in mind that there is, as yet no cure apart from the body’s own defences, why would the UK population fare so badly?
Where does this figure of half a million UK deaths come from? & where have I said that I am prepared to accept them?
If you cannot be sensible perhaps you should refrain from commenting.
Mark, have you taken into account that the reason covid19 deaths have been kept at this level is because entire cintinents are in lockdown? What do you think the figures would be reaching if nothing had been done ? Yes, China had 3270 deaths so far but if it had done nothing and carried on at 500 a day, the figure would be a bit different.
I do not dispute the effectiveness of the measures that have been taken by many countries at the moment nor do I disagree with it. My point, so far gone unnoticed, is that in previous years 'flu which behaves in a similar manner & historically has a much higher mortality rate, did NOT trigger the same life saving measures.
My question is why does this virus which seems to be very similar to previous ones, earn so much more repect & fear at government level when previous ones have not?
It is transmitted in a similar way, it has a greater effect on those with less than full health, far more people recover than die & the UK figures, which until today did not operate a lock down, show figures which are marketly lower than those in previous years & currently there are about 200 people in intensive care because of it (Sky News a few minutes ago).
In view of the fortunately low figures campared to 'flu, why now? Is there something about THIS virus that we are not being told?
THAT is my question.
Now I’ve heard it all. If I can’t be sensible. What bizarre words from a man who appears to have no understanding or knowledge of the danger of Coronavirus and obviously hasn’t been bothered to look up the facts and educate himself.
The 500,000 extra deaths is the figure that came from a Public Health England report and changed the government’s thinking, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
The comment about you being prepared to accept these deaths is because you seem to be totally unwilling to believe that this new virus is any more significant than anything else and appear to believe that the hype and the precautions are way over the top.
I am talking sense, believe me.
I have just read your recent comment and I believe that you haven’t bothered to look up the the way that this disease would multiply if no action was taken.
I can’t believe that an adult would admit to being so uninformed after such a long time of the virus dominating the headlines and government business.
Doctors are dying.
Nurses are getting sick.
The UK has run out of NHS beds and had to take over private hospitals. It doesn’t have enough ventilators.
And that’s after cancelling all non criitical medical care and taking measures to slow transmission.
Does that happen with flu?
This explains why your argument that, as the numbers of deaths is so low it’s fuss about nothing, is incorrect. Warning it uses big words.
This is the “secret” report that a newspaper has “seen”.
To push this as undisputed fact is not sensible.
I object strongly to being called heartless because you think that I can dismiss this as yet unsupported figure as in some way acceptable.
Due to the dinner party etiquette I will refrain from writing my true response to your unfounded insult but suffice to say that if we were at a dinner party you would be removing a soup ladle from somewhere it was not designed to be!
Any more insults you want to throw at me or do you want to make an intellegent comment?
COVID-19 spreads wider than the flu, has a mortality rate higher than the flu and can be spread by an asymptomatic carrier for much longer than the flu. Without treatments, vaccines or immunity, experts say the few options for humans to fight back is social distancing to mitigate the spread and reduce the overcrowding of hospitals, which can have catastrophic effects, as seen in Italy.
According to researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, World Health Organization and National Center for Biotechnology Information, a person with COVID-19 will, on average, infect 2 to 2.5 other people. For the seasonal flu, it’s 1.3 people.
Another major difference is the incubation time, which is the time from first exposure to first symptoms. For the seasonal flu, the incubation time is one to four days, with most people showing symptoms in about two days. For people infected with COVID-19, the virus can remain in a person’s body for up to 14 days before they experience any symptoms.
Five days has been shown to be the median, leaving people at risk to go in public without knowing they are infected.
The next two stats are key: the first, the rate of how many people are hospitalized.
The latest CDC numbers show the hospitalization rate is 20.7 percent for people infected with COVID-19 compared to just 2 percent for the flu.
The second stat: the fatality rate for confirmed cases.
According to the CDC, 1 to 3.4 percent of people infected with the novel coronavirus die. That’s compared to 0.1 percent or less for someone with the flu.
The virus has also proven much deadlier for elderly people and those over 80 years old. The latest CDC numbers show the case fatality rate of adults over 85 is 10.4 to 27.3 percent.
Younger age groups, ages 20-64, are seeing a case fatality rate of 0.2 to 2.6, as shown from the CDC chart below.
These numbers are obviously subject to change as more information is released on testing.
A week ago Trump was saying what you’re saying niow. Then the infections and death rate in the US exploded and he had to change tack. DESPITE taking action the US is currently well over 100 deaths a day.
Italy is talking about mass graves.
And you think this is all normal.