A significant national poll today gives, for the first time, Édouard Philippe beating Jordan Bardella in a hypothetical second round of voting in next year’s Presidential election.. EP is the only potential candidate recorded as beating JB.
Prediction markets also concur - for the first time - that EP can beat JB.
I shall dv be voting for EP
Looks like the usual mess for conservative voters with the centre to centre-right being contested by 4 different parties and then you have the RN.
Are we like to see the same block voting from the French Left as we did in the NA elections or does the Presidential election not work that way?
And me.
The French left has been historically divided, particularly in the first round of voting in Presidential elections. No better example than in 2002, when 3 Trotskyite candidates took 10% of the vote, and helped contribute to Lionel Jospin’s shocking failure to secure enough votes as the Parti Socialiste candidate to make it into the second round. Jean-Marie Le Pen instead caused something of a seismic political reaction by collecting enough votes to make it into the second round against Chirac.
The left though does tend to vote in a block in the second round, particularly to deny support to far right candidates, be they (usually ) Jean- Marie Le Pen, or his daughter, Marine.
For those interested, there has just been a decisive move amongst those who put their money where their mouth is, ie the prediction markets, in favour of Édouard Philippe. This follows his re-election as Maire of Le Havre, a self-imposed precondition for him running in next year’s Presidential election.
Can’t vote but he would have mine if I could. JB doesn’t bear thinking about as chief.
I hope you the polls are good on this prediction.
Just a thought, but I may lack knowledge on French Politics.
Suppose Le Pen wins next May. She can either keep the present Assemblée Nationale (AN) or call a new election. I can’t believe that she will do other than the latter. Under this constitution since De Gaulle, an election after a new President takes office has most often given the new President the support of his party in the AN, indicating perhaps that the people feel that this might be the best outcome, especially given the two-round electoral process. When a President is re-elected, public sympathy seems less and the President has to make the best of a less supportive AN. But this AN has usually been composed of the more centrist parties (Socialist to Gaullist, etc.) and this has usually worked not too badly.
But now, an election called by Le Pen is quite likely to result in a significant proportion of the electorate voting tactically to keep RN numbers down to a minimum and Bardella, if made PM, losing the vote of confidence very quickly. Le Pen can then not call another election under the one-year rule so will have to make do with an AN pretty much opposed to her policies. As President she has some powers of course, but these are pretty circumscribed either by the AN, the Senate or the Constitutional experts.
Then what? At least, not much of a move towards what many call ‘fascism’ (not my favourite word)? Street fighting as the French really don’t seem to like ‘concertations’? Or have I completely misunderstood?
