Game Theory Explains Why No Deal is Inevitable

This video was published mid February so, while plausible at that time events have moved on.

As I see it and remembering that the default is still to leave, with no deal, on the 29th, May is going to put her deal to Parliament again next week unless Bercow blocks it using the “same session” rule, which I think is unlikely.

Assuming it passes we ask for a short extension to enact the necessary supporting UK legislation, I expect that the EU would be happy with this, certainly up to May 22nd and maybe even up to June 30th; I suspect this is now the most likely path but I don’t think it is by any means certain that her deal will pass even with the DUP and ERG wavering.

If, however, May’s deal gets rejected she needs to ask for a long extension - the EU might not grant that or it might grant it with too many strings attached. If the HoC rejected an offered extension May would presumably present her deal for a 4th time, by this point probably almost certain to pass but if it did not the options would be - accept the extension terms, revoke A50 or leave without a deal on the 29th - but there would be very, very little parliamentary time to sort it all out - only three or four days.

So, we could still blow out because we ran out of time to avoid it, or just possibly we can’t agree an extension with the EU and stubbornly persist in rejecting May’s deal (turd-like though it is), but it is a lot less likely now.