How long will it last? Read this, it’s long and complicated

This is quite a long complicated paper about the time frame under different actions taken by Governments.
I found it long and complicated BUT fascinating.

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Tomas Puyeo is a self-publicising entrepreneur with no medical qualifications.
It could take the US 18 months to sort this, but Italy is already turning the corner and could be clear in as little as 6 weeks.
France could match that, but, as we started after them, maybe two months if we are well behaved and a bit lucky.
God help England!

I think if the downward trend continues in Italy they might start to lift restrictions in a week or so but region by region. I know you hate the UK Mike but unless the US stick to some sort of lockdown they’ll suffer far greater, the numbers of homeless people is staggering perhaps half a million and they will already be at a huge risk health wise.

Why only England? Doesn’t everybody need help?

and the second wave once we’re all let out …! :open_mouth:

That might be true but ad hominem attacks are not useful.

The article is good, read it, criticize it based on the science if you wish but read it.


I read it before it ever got onto this forum. The shock-horror illustration on the front page tells its own story.
If you want science, take a look at -

It gives a clue as to where this is going in Italy and possibly predicts how it might work out for us.

Not only England, but they have a similar population density to Italy and the government there is still trying to deal with the epidemic by persuading people to do the decent thing and spending as little as possible.
I have seen the scenes on the London underground. It’s a perfect environment for spreading the virus. I have a son who has to travel on those trains.
They should have stopped all unnecessary movement with fines for non-compliance right at the beginning. I fear it is already too late.

I don’t hate England! I hate the dishonest men who have enslaved ordinary decent people to serve their own lust for power and wealth. Don’t you?

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We are in frightening times and we should try to relax.
At the end of each day of extreme social distancing (I hate the word lockdown) I say to my wife. We are safe, we are healthy.
I live in Luxembourg and like France we are coming towards the end of our second week of extreme social distancing.
We have to prepare ourself for a long haull and NOT be disappointed if this horror is not over when we think.
I am preparing for this to last until mid September and will be VERY happy if things get better before that and will not be disappointed if extreme social distancing is still in place at the end of April.


Yes, the number of new cases is going down which is good - reducing interactions between people, if you do it effectiely will slow the spread of the virus.

Sorry - what “shock horror illustration” - the one which suggests that if we take effective measures we will slow things enough to avoid swamping the health services?

I may be wrong about that, in which case I apologise unreservedly to you and Mr Puyeo. I have looked at so many of these publications that I may have confused it with another that had a front page illustration with garish colours and staring demonic eyes.

Anyone can publish on Medium per our Policies, but we don’t fact-check every story. For more info about the coronavirus, see

Nobody’s turning any corner IMO Mike. This s only the beginning. Macron has acted decisively thank goodness, as has Ireland . Johnson has fu*ked the UK.

Paul, the time for pussyfooting is past. London is fu*ked. And it didn’t need to be this way. Those responsible for the prevarication should be lynched, and I don"t mean metaphorically.

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And what’s your point Bob?

BTW, don’t piss me off with any whataboutery :flushed:

Here is a machine translation from the the scientist who compiles the Italian statistics. Normally very cautious, this is what he said 4 days ago. Their numbers show further reduction in positive tests since then.

Update data on March 23th. There is a descending phase in the new cases but it’s still early to tell if we really have a real drop. We’ll probably have to wait until the end of this week to say something. We also need to consider that even if there was a drop, it was achieved in the condition in which we are all at home. What does this mean? A decrease in new cases doesn’t mean we will immediately be free to start moving where we want because if so, we could have a new increase in infections. When will we be free? The government will have to decide and it’s very difficult to know exactly what to do but we will make it!

I really, really hope the scientist is right Mike. Lombardy has been through hell. However I am very angry
about the lack leadership in the UK. I may start a separate thread to get that off my chest.

Oh joy, yet another thread slagging off the UK.

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