Carring on from the long post above and repeating the exercise with the 2017 results, the PR vote yields
| Party | Actual | PR | Change |
| Tory | 318 | 273 | -45 |
| Labour | 262 | 259 | -3 |
| Lib Dem | 12 | 48 | 36 |
| SNP | 35 | 22 | -13 |
| UKIP | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| Green | 1 | 10 | 9 |
| Plaid | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Sinn Fein | 7 | 5 | -2 |
| DUP | 10 | 2 | -8 |
| UUP | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| SDLP | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Alliance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 6 | 6 |
So, based on PR we’d have had a strong majority for a Lab/Lib/Green/SNP/Plaid coalition on 346 vs 291 (Tory+UKIP+Unionists) - things might have gone very differently than they did.
There are, of course caveats. A small one is that I still have some rounding errors somewhere in my spreadsheet so I “lost” more MP’s in the PR total, but probably not enough to worry about. Also “other” would likely be fewer MPs than suggested as that vote would have been spread over several small parties, probably none of who would have actually been allocated an MP so one of the bigger parties would, presumably, have picked up that share.
The bigger one is whether we would have had a 2017 election at all if we’d had PR in 2015 yielding a much more right wing/Anti-EU government than Cameron’s was in the beginning. It’s also possible that UKIP would have seen its vote *increase* not decrease - it fell because having “Got Brexit” the UKIP vote moved to the Tories - under PR UKIP voters wouldn’t have necessarily felt the need to move, especially with their party victorious.
One can also question whether PR in 2010 would have altered the political trajectory completely avoiding Brexit - but, for the sake of argument, I’m going to assume that vote would have been FPTP as the referendum on electoral change was not until 2011.
PS, Jeff’s French cousin has dropped the wellies off in my boîte à lettres - had I realised they’d fit in there, I could have got off to Castorama much earlier.
And in a further twist today, it has been revealed that the Dartmoor National Park Authority - ie. the government - is now going to have to pay landowners to preserve the right to camp !
No I am not. Allowing unlimited access to farmland is asking for too much.
Would you like someone pitching a tent in your garden?
It does make me smile to see the faux outrage that some people living in France have over the possible banning of wild camping on Dartmoor when the government of their adopted country continually allows a minority (La Chasse) to take over the countryside for months on end without any regard to the wishes of the majority of the population.
Could this have any relation to various new public order offences having been brought in over recent years?
You think HMG is scary? Take a look at the WEF.
what is WEF
Nobody is proposing that. You seem to have set up a straw man that you’re very angry with, and are determined to give a good beating…
Meanwhile, the real issue is that legal rights established for decades or centuries are being taken away for no reason other than greed, that this very same greed - these very same people - are in cahoots with the government, and that everybody else is having to pick up the tab.
This is the usual Guardian misinformation and misrepresentation. Geof, you need to be more critical of your favourite sauce!
There is no “right” in England & Wales to camp on someone else’s land. I believe Scottish law is different. An exception was assumed in Dartmoor.
While you may resent Darwall’s wealth, all that happened is that, following his application, the Court confirmed that the Dartmoor Commons Act 1985 did not allow people to “wild camp”.
No conspiracy, no bribery, no dirty dealings at the crossroads, just the Court making its judgment. I imagine if the DNPA was advised that it was clearly appealable, they’d appeal.
Morning All
As an alternative voting system this seems to be worth a look at.
How does the German election system work? | Euronews
Seems to have served Germany petty well
Whatever the attractions it’s not that easy - one does not suddently wake up one morning and decide to do the next national election according to different rules from the previous.
To start with you have to get past the “we settled this in 2011” argument - and anyone who thinks that won’t have teeth should look at the post 2016 referendum debate.
For me, the best argument for FPTP is the direct link of MP to Constituency, which pure PR systems erode - so the German system seems a good compromise.
It’s interesting, isn’t it, that ‘western’ countries regard themselves as ‘democracies’, but without any real agreement on what system really is democratic?
The current German system, incidentally, was preceded (before the fascist dictatorship period) by a more proportional system, which gave rise to powerful extremist parties (Communist on the left and Fascist on the right). In general, the more proportional the system, the more it favours smaller ideologically pure parties, as opposed to the ‘two party system’, where both the right and left parties are unwieldy ‘broad churches’.
Which is why neither the Labour nor Conservative parties are likely to ditch FPTP.
World Economic Forum. The “You will eat bugs, own nothing and be happy” Forth Reich Club.
Morning Mr Butcher,
Totally take your point, but every journey has to start with the first step.
I really feel that, if no changes are made, people will become so disillusioned with politics that the system will become totally dysfunctional. I feel we are on the way there at the moment.
Morning Geof
I agree that such a system will increase the influence of minor parties.
However, we now have governments elected by a minority vote, but resulting in a massive majority.
Lesser of two evils ?
Scotland is indeed the only area of the UK that effectively allows wild camping anywhere, thanks to the Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2003, which permits the public to camp on most unenclosed land.
Good read here.
Way back… in the 50/60’s…
Our home wasn’t too far from Dartmoor and Dad often drove us there for the day… what fun that was… dogs and kids running amok in the fresh air and sunshine…
Sometimes there would be a tent in a quiet spot… and we would simply think how lucky those folk were…
Just read that the Irish Gaelic word that has come down into modern English as ‘Tory’ was originally pronounced ‘Toe-rag’…