I think the drop in deaths just tracked the slight drop for a few days about 2 weeks ago (up to March 16) but March 17 had a big increase in new cases matching the increase in deaths today.
With the eye of faith one could suggest that the number of new cases has held about 3k per day for a couple of days - as ever more data will help define whether the trend is level, up or down.
What is worrying/puzzling is how many deaths we are getting compared with the number of new cases 2 weeks ago (data from China suggests an average of 18 days from onset of symptoms to death in those who did not survive) - not clear why but something not adding up there.
I am not overly trusting of the Chinese data, and it might be politically expedient for them to project the image that they are beating the disease but there are more innocent explanations - such as they feared many more deaths and simply over-ordered urns. Given lead times and commitment to production it might not have been possible to reduce the order size at the last minute.
After all we’re building a 4000 bed hospital-in-a-conference-centre (I half wonder if there is a tiny bit of political one-upmanship going on there) but hoping we won’t need it all.
But, grifters grift and the Internet loves a good conspiracy theory over a mundane explanation any day of the week.
I think it is widely accepted that they did initially hush up the outbreak and force a retraction from the doctor (now deceased) who first reported it.
Imagine what information any government would publish in the absence of an opposition and a free press.
Latest news is another month. Not unexpected.
But at last, a politician with the courage to apologise for an initial slow reaction.
I salute you, President Emmanuel Macron!
I was getting a little concerned as my list of jobs to complete before the lockdown ends seems to be getting bigger - so at least I have another 4 weeks to get on with them!
Personally I lov’n the lockdown, the jobs on the house are coming on in leaps and bounds. And being paid @ 84% of my net salary for being unemployed and still accumilating holiday pay, I must be one of the lucky ones as financially better off as no longer paying for motorway toll charges or diesel.
Problem is that somehow the gov’t is going to have to get back all the money they are shelling out, so I fully expect that tax and other contributions will rise next year.
In the UK they have already signalled that the self-employed will have to pay more NI.
By contrast, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Dr Thérèse Coffey, on BBC this morning, refused to apologise or admit that the UK was ill prepared for Covid-19.
I was just thinking, if they had half a brain between them, they would have thought Macron’s speech went down well, lets try a bit of humility, even if we don’t really mean it!
Got into LaMaison Agricentre as the gates opened at 0845, second only to a bemused-looking farmer in overalls, boots and cap. Slightly panicky staff still recognisable despite masks stood at 2 metre intervals along arrowed maze-like path handing out latex gloves, herding us with muffled grunts and flappy gestures towards a designated exit. All the caddies were tied together green string. Heft-your-own-load-shift-that-bale-yourself-time!
I wanted a replacement butane bottle and a helper eventually found the last full one in an enclosure of about twenty-four empty ones. Rather ominous, I thought. And only three bags left of the girls’ favourite mixed seeds and cereals? I took one bag, and a bag of blé so as not to deprive the four crows and two tourterelles that regularly invite themselves to dinner.
There is a definite air of subdued panic around, but also signs of an emerging ésprit de corps, masked car drivers waving cheerfully at intersections, quite novel. I think the Macron address has lifted the national mood. I noticed a big improvement in my colloquial French when delivered from behind my khaki kefiye, newly purchased from Germany via Amazon. Much comfier than a mask and perhaps less intimidating to others? I have three and they handwash easily and dry in minutes on the line.
