…you could be commenting on the NE, & NW and the Midlands ex coal mining area of England, bit of an echo of how Boris Johnson demolished the “Red Wall”!
I think a lot of French moderate voters (and some Brits on this site) delude themselves if they think the previous coalition of the left and right of center will automatically coalesce as before to keep the far right out. No guarantee for reasons you so clearly set out that it will happen in 2022.
There seems to be a real rag bag of others who might throw hats in ring, none of whom are likely to match up to EM and M le P in terms of credibility…so do you think a think a contender may emerge by the autumn …Ségolène Royal?