Macron V Le Pen

Politics
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One of the interesting facts is that M le P’s increasing support is in industrial N France that was strongly communist/left wing and has swung to her because of being left behind/forgotten.
So what is that a replay of…northern red wall seats in UK, for years staunchly Labour until they fell in love with BJs promises to level up. We shouldn’t kid ourselves that it couldn’t happen here.

The real expolsive mix will be if the Greens do well in Germany…and their popularity is growing at the expense of the CDU/CSU and their wishy washy successor Armin Lashcet. An RN led France and CSU/Green coalition in Germany really will convulse the EU.
We could be in for an interesting ride living here!
Boris would sit in the side lines and say " we told you so".

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I don’t think what happens in Germany will have much bearing on France.

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The Rassemblement National (in passing, what a terrible name…) has gone from malfunctioning as a disorganised, libertarian, Maurrassian outfit under the father (so, up to 2010) to becoming a structured, “pro-working class”, left-wing/populist party in the space of a couple of years when Marine Le Pen took over in January 2011, just as the party was at a low ebb and had hit rock bottom in fact (the Front National only recorded 2% in the 2007 Législatives – average of the first and second rounds; followed by a terrible showing in the 2008 Municipal elections with < 0.5 % and they only registered only 10% in the 2010 Regionals – average of the first and second rounds).

She did two vital things upon taking over. She first set about changing the image of the party, she “detoxified”/“sanitised”/“de-demonised” (take your pick) it in order to make it more attractive and appeal to a wider base, sociologically speaking, while keeping some of the anti-immigration rhetoric.

Secondly, she restructured the party substantially in order to widen its electoral base, generationally speaking. She changed much of the personnel (ditched the old guard) she’d inherited from her father and surrounded herself with young/young-ish people, not least her niece Marion Maréchal, with whom she’s now in open conflict and who is waiting in the wings. She appointed plenty of young/young-ish whippersnapper-type more media-friendly leaders & advisers (such as the polished Gaullist Énarque Florian Philippot, who was her main spad until the last Presidentials; replaced by the likes of the high-profile working-class Jordan Bardella, the de facto Number 2 in the party, or Nicolas Bay), some of them being opportunistic transfuges – i.e defectors – from the mainstream rightwing parties where they probably they sussed out that their opportunities and political future were limited.

And it’s worked (stonking results in the 2015 Regionals for instance, > 27%), although they would have been very disappointed with the 2017 Législatives results, only 11% (ditto: average of the first and second rounds).

She massively developed the youth structure nationally and set about harnessing modern technology. Hiring much younger more diverse advisers and strategists massively boosted the Under-35 vote, it was done also through setting up the “Front National de la Jeunesse” groups, who are very militant. They’re very active on social media and canvass and leaflet intensely during campaigns. I’ve seen them canvass on markets even in deprived multi-ethnic Greater Paris estates where only France Insoumise/Parti Communiste campaigners venture these days. They’re not always terribly welcome by many there but their discourse resonate with some in those areas who (rightly) feel abandoned by the State as the public administrations and structures are scaled down (you name it, from police stations to law courts to schools or medical & social structures. People talk a lot in France about rural desertification, in particular in the “Diagonale du Vide”, but many of the more deprived suburbs have been badly hit too by a gradual hollowing out of services).

Even the “gay electorate” was taken care of (Philippot, the then main strategist between 2011 and 2017, is openly gay, and the current Number 2 or 3, Sébastien Chenu, is gay too) and the Front National subsequently attracted a substantial % of the gay & LGBT vote, Le FN séduit de plus en plus d’homosexuels.

She totally changed her father’s hitherto neolib manifesto, which gradually became much more “social” under her (return of the retirement age to 60, creation of a sort of universal income etc.).

Wolves in sheep’s clothing no doubt but it worked. She might be a chip of the old block but for many voters she comes across as different ideologically from her vile father, and it’s paying off. All French political experts concur to agree that she is far more opportunistic than very ideologically marked. So if she feels that a social, sort of light Socialist agenda is what her electorate roughly want, that’s what she’ll go for (Although it is a fine balancing act for her as there are roughly two distinct Front National electorates, in a nutshell: a younger JAM/working class to lower middle class cohort, mainly located in the post-industrial Northern and North East French heartlands, who traditionally voted for the Left and an older/retiree type South-East/PACA - Provence Alpes Côte D’Azur - electorate, more neolib, more comfortable and more focused on immigration and identity issues, who traditionally voted for the Right.)

If the RN manages to win the Hauts-de-France at the June Regionals, it will certainly bolster her candidacy for the 2022 Presidentials.

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I’m not suggesting German election this autumn will have significant impact on May 2022…however sparks will fly and have a big negative on the EU if the Greens are powerful in the Bundestag and the RN are in the Élysée Palace. One outcome might be a weak Euro…good for those with UK pension income, bad for those that decide living under Le Pen is not for them so sell up and go back to Blighty !

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…you could be commenting on the NE, & NW and the Midlands ex coal mining area of England, bit of an echo of how Boris Johnson demolished the “Red Wall”!
I think a lot of French moderate voters (and some Brits on this site) delude themselves if they think the previous coalition of the left and right of center will automatically coalesce as before to keep the far right out. No guarantee for reasons you so clearly set out that it will happen in 2022.
There seems to be a real rag bag of others who might throw hats in ring, none of whom are likely to match up to EM and M le P in terms of credibility…so do you think a think a contender may emerge by the autumn …Ségolène Royal?

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Nah, Royal is definitely grillée as the French say, she’s toast, she’s history.

She didn’t even make it to the socialist primaries of January 2017, laughably called “La primaire de la Belle Alliance Populaire”. She knew full well she had zero chance of winning those primaries (in which the socialist candidate for the Presidentials is picked. And the winner of the poisoned chalice was… Benoît Hamon. The poor bougre had no chance, he was doomed from the word go, as he carried two millstones not of his own making: the toxic legacy of François Hollande who finished his tenure on popularity ratings of 4% (!) and the impossibility of making himself heard in the ginormous din generated by the serialised Fillon scandal & many offshoots which broke out the very day – end of January 2017 – that Hamon was elected as the Socialist candidate. He subsequently recorded the second worst ever score registered by a Socialist in a Presidential, 6.4%).

Since then, Royal has been busy losing all credibility. She repackaged herself as an environmentalist and in 2014, François Hollande appointed her as Minister of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy. She’d been badgering him for a sinecure and he gave her one, possibly to atone for his sins (in June 2007 after a 37-year relationship with Royal and 4 children together, Hollande and her split as the latter cheated on her during Royal’s presidential campaign of 2006-07 with the much younger Paris Match journalist Valérie Trierweiler - who would herself be infamously cheated on by Hollande 6 years later, with the much younger actress Julie Gayet -, Trierweiler later wrote a scathing bestselling tell-all book about Hollande).

As minister of Ecology, Royal was instrumental in putting together the Paris COP21 in 2015 but by all accounts, she was more style than substance in that position.

In December/January 2016, so a month before the Socialist primaries “de la Belle Alliance Populaire”, as Macron was gaining traction, she moved towards him (Macron, as the Economy minister in Hollande’s second gvt headed by Manuel Valls, was of course a former colleague of hers), especially as she sensed that there was nothing to gain personally in endorsing a Socialist candidate who was never going to win no matter what, and she reasoned that there was mileage in backing the Macron horse (who, apart from a Socialist, was the only candidate she could possibly endorse).

When Macron was elected, she pestered him for a ministry portfolio (ideally the Ecology one) but didn’t get one and had to make do with being appointed “Ambassador of the North and South Poles”, an environment pantouflerie all right but one plum job that she couldn’t even be arsed to at least pretend doing half properly. For instance, it turned out that she rarely if ever turned up to any meeting (and didn’t even bother sending her deputy) and did some dodgy things. She denied it but investigative journalists proved that she had indeed done sod all for three years and worse, had used that privileged position for self-promotion and what have you (like, leaving bills of €1,500 a month in taxis taken for non-professional reasons). She more or less had to resign (as forced by Macron) as she’d been badly exposed as a bent fraud and as Macron hadn’t supported her (and rightly so) she turned against him.

She’s now gobbing off against Macron in the media and all the rest of it while saying she is “ready to head a Union of the Left list for the 2022 Presidentials” but , even if she does run for presidency (after all, she can, as an independent, all she has to do is to find 500 signatures/endorsements, shouldn’t be difficult for her), she has zero chance, it would be more to piss off Macron seeing that, as a centre-Left candidate, she would probably manage to siphon off enough votes towards her to somewhat hurt him as first rounds are generally very tight affairs (4 candidates last time around the 20% mark - Macron at 24%, Le Pen at 21.3%, Fillon at 20% and Mélenchon at 19.6%).

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That was an interesting read Fred.

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Fred, doesn’t it all come down to where the Macron votes will be distributed ?

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so given Fred’s continuing very interesting commentary on the early state of play for 2022, who might emerge as the third credible candidate against EM and M le Pen?
…and what about the German elections, all I know is that the most recent two preferred candidates preffered by Muttie (aka Merkel) fell before even getting to the first hurdle !
Maybe we need a new thread started by somebody who knows German politics thus…".Life after Merkel."…any takers ?

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Why are you obsessed with Germany John ?
Start a separate German thread.

I think Michel Barnier is becoming popular as is Édouard Philippe. We need a credible successor to Macron not least someone who can reassure us that Marine isn’t the only other choice imo.

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I take it Peter that you mean the redistribution of Centrist votes that Macron will or could lose in the 1st round (if indeed, he runs again for presidency for a second term, he probably will again as he is young etc. but who knows these days, but let’s assume that he does).

Yes, it could be one of the first round enjeux of this election but your question scenario is predicated upon Macron losing votes in the first round, not sure he’ll lose that many TBH, he’s on 24% of voting intention in the polls as we speak or thereabouts, so exactly the same % as he recorded in April 2017.

But it all depends of course on what the Left does. If, as I suspect, they’ll faff about and bicker yet again, fail to show at least a modicum of unity and go to battle as a disorganised and fragmented rabble, then Macron has nothing to fear from them and should get his 24% or thereabouts, so the same as in 2017, and should therefore make it to the 2nd round. If the Left, heaven forfend, shows more unity, more maturity and runs only 2 candidates for instance, then Macron could struggle to get to the second round.

But it’s such a long way off, over 12 months hence and predictions are so damn casse-gueule (dicey, iffy). And we haven’t even entered the “floaters” into this equation, there’s an increasing number of politically homeless voters who decide on their preference very late on, electorates are more fluid than before.

It’s amusing to look at predictions made for 2017 (based on polls) one year before the elections, so winter/spring 2016. It is humbling as they were so farcically off beam. Most polls gave Sarkozy as the winner of the rightwing primaries and therefore the candidate for the Right in the second round.

Blimey, how wrong they were… Sarko did not even make it to the 2nd round of the Primaries (he came 3rd, way behind Fillon and Juppé), never mind making the 2nd round of the elections.

Polls also saw Hollande as the main candidate for the Left. According to polls he would get 19% in the first round. How funny that prognosis looks now… Hollande was so humiliatingly low in the polls in the autumn 2016 (as I wrote in my previous post, his popularity ratings at the end of 2016 hovered around the 4% mark, an all-time low) that he didn’t bother throwing his hat into the Primaries ring. Wise man…

Polls also saw the centrist François Bayrou (MoDem party, a sort of French LibDem) come 4th in the first round, with 13%. Well, Bayrou didn’t go for it in the end as he was very low in the polls (barely 5%, about 2 million votes) so why bother he reasoned and, as a seasoned politician, he saw that there was a better strategy to adopt for him than waste time & energy and alienate people in that bitter campaign, in particularly fellow centrist Macron. So, after saying for months that he’d run for president, when he saw that Fillon was losing lots of support 3 weeks after the scandal broke out, which was benefiting Macron who, suddenly, had a chance to win, Bayrou decided to pull out and back Macron instead. Of course he packaged it differently so as to make it look like it was a laudable altruistic decision on his part, i.e “for the good of France”, in a Front Républicain spirit so as not to favour Le Pen etc. but that’s what happened, it really was always just about him (was desperate to get a senior ministerial position) and his MoDem party (good negotiations would ensure a good result in the Législatives and therefore a sizeable parliamentary group).

What Bayrou did was that he made a pact with Macron at the end of February 2017, an “échange de bons procédés” as the French call it (an exchange of favours, you scratch my back I’ll scratch yours). He negotiated the following deal: he called for his 2 million+ sympathisers/putative voters to plump for Macron and in exchange he asked Macron (should he win) for a senior ministerial portfolio for himself and a couple of his faithful sidekicks (such as the recently-deceased Marielle de Sarnez) + also of course a preferential treatment in the following Législatives, i.e no En Marche candidates in some constituencies winnable by Bayrou’s party, the MoDem, explains why MoDem got 42 MPs as opposed to 2 in the previous Législatives in 2012.

And that’s exactly what happened. Macron bagged his 2 million votes, which gave him a huge boost to get to the second round, and Macron reciprocated by appointing Bayrou as Justice minister and gave 2 of Bayrou’s faithfuls ministerial portfolios too (Marielle de Sarnez got the European Affairs ministry and Sylvie Goulard the Defence. Except of course that a barely one month later Bayrou & his crew were forced to resign over the scandal of the misuse of EU funds – fictitious employment of parliamentary assistants, what happened to the Rassemblement National too, to the tune of €5 million –, which anyway suited Macron to a tee as by then he had a clear majority in parliament with 308 MPs and therefore reasoned that he didn’t need Bayrou’s 42 MPs (Macron does now as En Marche has lost ~40 MPs since then and has no absolute majority, but thanks to the 40-odd MoDem MPs he’s allied to he still holds a majority), and didn’t need to have to put up with the overbearing Bayrou to whom he naturally felt indebted).

[Rien ne s’est passé comme prévu

Premier enseignement : rien ne s’est passé comme prévu. Les sondeurs envisageaient à l’époque une candidature de Nicolas Sarkozy pour la droite - et donc sa victoire à la primaire fin 2016 - et celle du président socialiste sortant, François Hollande. Dans cette configuration, Marine Le Pen était donnée en tête avec 28% des intentions de vote, suivi par Nicolas Sarkozy (20%) dans un mouchoir avec François Hollande (19%). Le président du MoDem, François Bayrou arrivait lui quatrième avec 13%. Finalement, parmi ces quatre, seule Marine Le Pen a bien été candidate.](Présidentielle : que disaient les sondages en janvier 2016?)

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European politics interest me…obviously had belly full of Johnson, Italian is chaotic…even daughter’s partner an Italiam Vetinary living in London says so, Spanish almost as bad as Italy…and whatever people say Germany is the European power house, so what happens there and thus n the EU will have an impact here.
So I’m interested

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That’s a toughie. Now that the Parti Socialiste has lost so much ground that it cannot possibly run a candidate able to get to the 2nd round (such as François Hollande in 2012, nearly 29% in the 1st round; or Ségolène Royal in 2007, 26%), the main two leftwing parties (PS and Mélenchon’s France Insoumise) must make an alliance and have 1 candidate to represent the Left and get to the 2nd round where they could hold their own against anyone, like François Mitterrand did in 1981 as I explained the other day. It is doubtful that Mélenchon will improve on his 2017 score and therefore be in a position to get to the 2nd round.

There is a space on the Right between Macron and Le Pen for a mainstream Right (Les Républicains) candidate to register 20% and get to the 2nd round (and Fillon would certainly have done that and got to the 2nd round in 2017 hadn’t it been for the scandal that torpedoed him - namely the revelations made to the Canard Enchaîné from someone who was bound to know Fillon & his wife & their children & their political shenanigans extremely well (down to the fraudulent “literary activities” of Fillon’s wife in La Revue des Deux Mondes in which she signed under a pseudo because she didn’t want anyone to know about it, can’t have been many people who knew of that one!) and who, at the time, looked like they could have come from his sworn enemy Rachida Dati but now look suspiciously like they came from Sarkozy), anyway, there is such a space but unlike in 2017 that space is small now as Macron’s policies and tone have drifted to the Right.

As I wrote, Édouard Philippe (Les Républicains) is rumoured to want to capitalise on his good popularity ratings and have a go (he was always going to run for presidency but the plan was to wait for Macron to retire from top level politics as he didn’t want to get in his way, for obvious reasons) but I personally don’t think that he will, I think he’ll bide his time and wait for 2027, but who knows, it’s so topsy-turvy everywhere at the mo.

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Me too but why not start a German topic ?

Seems logical to me.

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A German politics thread would indeed be interesting as their system is so different from what most of us know best here, the UK and French systems. I know little about that topic and would be keen to get insights from people who know the system well, for maybe having experienced it from within.

I’d be particularly interested to how more about the influence of the AfD at the Bundestag (88 MPs/709), about the federal system, about the rapport between the 16 Länder and the State, how it all works out between them at a practical level, how their PR system works in practice, how PR tallies with their federal system and so on (it was an unmitigated disaster the two times France has tried a form of PR since WWII! Fourth Republic and under Mitterrand, 1986-1988). It’s all very well to read about these things but much more enriching to actually get the lowdown from people who know what they’re talking about and have no particularly axe to grind.

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I’m sure many will know of www.thelocal.fr. and they have just published some interesting comments and articles on the up coming presidential election. Some forecasts and also explaining the process in more detail. Well worth a look.

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Édouard Philippe’s sudden coming out of the wood and his “will he won’t he” teasing is certainly is one of the interesting early developments of this 2022 Presidential.

He has high popularity ratings (mainly because in France, the president takes most of the flak, but there’s no dying that Philippe’s calm, humble style appeals to people, it certainly contrasts with Macron’s arrogant know-all personality, which could be his downfall this time round - in 2016, when Macron created En Marche and went for it, he was largely an unknown quantity) so it must feel very tempting for Philippe to go for it but for reasons I explained a few days ago I don’t think he’ll run for president. I think he just enjoys making Macron sweat a bit at the minute and rattle his cage (as I wrote, Philippe is bound to feel betrayed by Macron). It is very early days yet of course so who knows, maybe later developments will nudge Philippe towards a candidacy but I wouldn’t put much money on it.

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On Inter the other day he was being very normand :grin: in his answers.

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He’s certainly been very cagey, I know it’s early days but I wish he would “piss or get off the pot” on this one, we kind of would like to know… It’s a No for me, I don’t think he’ll go for it, 2027 possibly as he’s often talked of or hinted at his ambition to be president, but despite his misgivings about Macron, he won’t want to get in his way IMO and politically that’d be difficult, as even if he runs as the main LR candidate, I can’t see Macron (who will run as an independent candidate then, like last time, I mean unhindered by Primaries) pulling out for him, so that would be a risky strategy for Philippe, he’s much better off waiting for Macron to have retired from top-level French politics, which if he wins next year will be in 2027.

Meanwhile, in the Marine Le Pen’s & the RN’s camp, the serious financial problems that the party has been experiencing for nearly 10 years now are taking their toll.

Campaign costs are starting to be an issue as they have to find the funding for the 4 forthcoming elections, within 15 months (the Régionales and Départementales in June – was to be last month but postponed due to the pandemic –, the Presidentials in spring 2022 and the Législatives in June 2022), starting with the campaign for the Régionales & Départementales held in 2 months’ time.

That is a lot of money to find: €30 millon in the next 15 months (approx. half of that will be for the Presidential campaign), and their revenues are way too low to finance it all. Granted, the £15m spent in the Presidentials will be reimbursed by the State, after a thorough examination of the audit organisation that deals with campaign expenses (the Commission nationale des comptes de campagne et des financements politiques – the CNCCFP) but obviously you have to find the money beforehand, and that’s very tricky now for the RN, they owe a lot (debts of over €24 million), spend far too much, and banks won’t loan them anything (even international ones; they borrowed €9m+ in 2014 from a Kremlin-linked Russian bank, and also from a Cyprus-based Russian organisation, but it didn’t go well as the FN have dragged their feet to reimburse them – the Russians threatened to sue them etc- so those avenues are now firmly closed).

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Since 2018, the RN has been struggling to reimburse their massive debt of nearly €25 million and are now seriously struggling (they owe a Russian bank about €9 million, and last year couldn’t even reimburse Jean-Marie’s Le Pen 2017 loan – just over €4m – so J-M Le Pen got that money through legal means and that amount was taken directly from the €5.2m state grant given to the RN each year, as per the rules pertaining to the public funding of political parties)

The RN has had to lay off 20 people of late in their Nanterre headquarters (north-west Paris), out of 50 employees. There’s now talk of a pay freeze and other cost-cutting measures. The RN employees are well paid: on average over €60,000 a year, with the big cheeses salaried by the party (the main administrators, advisers, Marine Le Pen etc.) on double that. Of course, that’s on top of their wages as elected officials for those who are elected officials therefore paid by the French state (they have 15 mayors, about 1,000 municipal & regional councillors and 7 MPs, such as Marine Le Pen). The RN wage bill alone costs the party about €4-€5 million a year (including the hefty social contributions), less now though as they’ve just made about 20 employees redundant.

On top of that, the party’s non-salarial current expenses have trebled since 2015, and are now hovering around the €5 million a year mark (rallies, travel expenses, “frais de bouche” – no tickets restaurants for them I take it –, lawyers’ fees – nearly €1m in 2018 alone – etc.).

In addition, their plush Fort Knox-type HQ has become a millstone, far too costly for them, the rent alone costs them €30,000 a month. Their search for a smaller, cheaper new HQ base has so far drawn a blank (not many landlords are happy to have them as tenants, for a variety of reasons), especially as they strongly prefer a West Paris location, not terribly cheap (they’re looking at relocating to the upmarket 16th arrondissement, or at a pinch the 15th next door, close to the big media HQs which are mostly headquartered there, south of the Eiffel Tower, along the Seine – TF1, France Télévisions, BFMTV, the huge Radio France complex etc.). Security is a concern for them so finding a very secure building is an additional requirement, not easy and not cheap.

Their yearly revenues are only about €7 million, about £1 million a year from contributions from their elected officials, about €300K a year from donations (slightly more in elections years, as the strict laws framing donations to political parties enable them to receive a little more in election years) but the bulk of their income is the money they receive from the French state, just over €5 million a year.

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Forgot to say for those who may not know, that French political parties are partly financed by public funds (that’s been the case for about 30 years, with substantial changes along the way), following a formula based on their results in the two main elections (Législatives - MPs - and the Presidentials), basically their number of MPs and the number of votes they got in the first round of the Presidentials, as of 2017 (last Presidential), it’s €1.42 per ballot vote per year + €38,000 per year given to the party for each député or sénateur elected under the banner of that party. Explains for instance why Macron’s party gets about €20 million a year from the state, as they had 308 MPs elected, although 40 have defected since then; Les Républicains get nearly the same, they have much fewer MPs than En Marche but many more sénateurs than Macron’s party only has about 25 sénateurs, the senateurs are much more a product of the “territoires”, the regions, that bit is even enshrined in the constitution, *Le Sénat représente les collectivités territoriales" etc.).

This public funding was gradually introduced from the late 1980s to put a stop to the rampant corruption affecting French politics – donations from lobbies, businesses, kickbacks to parties etc. – and it’s largely worked. A raft of key reforms and laws re the financing of political parties, starting with the Rocard Laws in 1988, have been adopted since then and as a result the legislation on donations and funding are much stricter than before the 1990s (hugely reinforced powers given to investigating judges too in terms of political matters, it’s much better in terms of the independence of the judiciary etc.), pre 1990s there were no rules regarding party financing, and whenever a politico-financial scandal emerged via the media, the judiciary was pressurised into sweeping things under the rug. This free-for-all had largely benefited the main two “sides” (Left and Right) since the early 1970s, namely the Socialist Party and the various mainstream rightwing parties (which, as you will know, often change name in France), notably the Urba scandal and later the Elf Aquitaine scandal, the latter described by The Guardian in 2003 as “probably the biggest political and corporate sleaze scandal to hit a western democracy since the second world war”.

The Elf scandal was a particularly mammoth political scandal that hit France in the early 1990s (and one that would contribute to the passing of much stricter new legislation on a number of related areas, eg rules governing donations to parties, investigative powers etc.), and carried on in the 2000s with the trials that took place in that decade.

The Elf Aquitaine scandal that is also remembered for its many ramifications and juicy sexual developments, notably the Elf Aquitaine manager (and former lingerie model) Christine Deviers-Joncour who was handsomely remunerated by Elf and also to get top socialist politicians in the early 1990s, in particular then Foreign minister Roland Dumas, with whom she was having an affair at the time, to award favours to a French multinational in armament contracts (frigates) with Taiwan.

Deviers-Joncour was dubbed "the Mata-Hari of the Périgord” (she grew up near Sarlat, still lives there) and “The whore of the Republic”, her own words, she did cash on her notoriety, she wrote 7 (!) books on that case and gave plenty of interviews to the media. She explained at the time that she had no choice as she’d been bankrupted by the whole thing. Although she was on over €10,000 a month at Elf, lawyers’ fees, the taxman (redressement fiscal) etc. bled her dry. Who knows…

Investigators know that a lot of money in that scandal vanished abroad, mainly in tax havens. Officially, the financial flux (illegal money) generated in Elf Aquitaine scandal, what the investigators were able to account for, was about €250 million. They estimate though that over €1bn changed hands illegally, either in cash, transfers or in assets (there were many plush properties in France and abroad given, either rented or offered, boats, luxury cars, jewellery etc. - the lot). On top of her regular Elf wage, Deviers-Joncour received huge amounts, to the tune of €20 million but it could be more, as I’ve just written most of the money seems to have gone awol, could be in some tax havens.

She did time in prison for her involvement in that affair (about 3 months), and received a hefty fine (€200K I think) and claims she’s still broke as she still has substantial debts to reimburse (millions of €), only lives off her book royalties and qualifies for CMU coverage.