I thought the same after trying to make sense of your post.
Figure 4 suggests that the current initial and latest grant rates are very similar (2022 being unusual) and the success rate is actually around 45%, doesn’t it?
ALso, these figures seem not to include absconders (~1,000 a year, so not a huge proportion) and those who just drop out of the system, substantially more.
Given that the latest figures after 2022 are extrapolation then that’s not a safe assumption, unless we know why the gap between initial and latest closed in 2022 and have confidence that those conditions will continue.
There seems to be a fairly consistent floor of around 50% success rate overall and I suspect that someone has been tactically optimistic in that extrapolation.
It depends whether Fig 4 is intended to show the total claims granted or merely the %age of claims granted initially and separately the %age granted at a later claim. The refugee council page I linked earlier (the one you didn’t like) is explicit that “around” 40% are granted initially and then explicitly says 2/3rds of refusals are overturned.
Admittedly Fig. 4 suggests it’s (now) lower for “later” claims - looks like maybe 41% for initial claims and 45% for later claims - still if those are separate groups it suggests that 41 + (0.45 x 59) or 67.55% of claims are ultimately granted.
Also don’t forget that a claim can cover more than one person so the %age of people granted asylum could be higher.
I’m surprised no one has mentioned the Piddington Great Crested Newts who may have saved the village from being used as a detention camp
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I can see Great Crested Newts becoming the new “county lines” smuggling epidemic.
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It is exactly what it says (you can look at Asy_D04): “latest” is the total (otherwise the Home Office would have succeeded in creating human life in a substantial number).
I’m surprised no one has mentioned the thriving dogging scene Piddington apparently has. They come from miles around to Jubilee Park from what I understand. I’d ask our members who know the area well, but I’m sure they’d have no idea about that sort of thing…
Indeed, it seems you’re the only one.
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I’ll have a look
But it is perfectly possible for the two figures to total more than 100% if that is what is bothering you.
Take 100 claims, 40 succeed at initial review
Of the remaining 60, let’s say 40 are granted at appeal - that’s 66% of those claims
40% + 66% = 106%
The thing is that you can’t add percentages if they are on different bases.
Indeed.
‘When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.’
‘The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’
‘The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master – that’s all.’
It doesn’t even require a dog…
Allegedly.
.
.
Edit to add. And who would be silly enough to ask for a definition of “dog”?
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Strange comments keep people on their toes. There’s nothing worse, in my book at least, becoming one of those people who predictably trot out the same old lines about the same old topics!
But no, cars aren’t essential…
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Are you thinking of the Barbastelle bats, by any chance?
They should be delighted with the influx of 1,000 potential new “woodland” friends then.
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No the Newts were on the news on Wednesday, the bats yesterday. However it is good news for the villagers. Years ago the commune where I lived on the north west coast of Brittany was threatened by having a nuclear power station built on the cliffs which caused a lot of upset locally. However the maire who was born and bred locally and some other villagers managed to discover a species of rare orchid growing in that locality the government had proposed, got a flora and fauna association in Roscoff interested in the find and it was stopped, the same thing happens here too where threatened species are found.
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Classic dogging sketch
When I used to go over to Brest to visit my kids whilst they were students, I would take my dog for a walk round a certain wooded park and could never understand why so many cars but no one about. I nearly let the dog go one afternoon when two blokes suddenly appeared out of some thick bushes and it was obvious what they had been upto and then my daughter said when she was out jogging in the park with her friends they kept seeing a crowd standing round a car. None of us knew it was the main dogging and “other business” for the city and the police were always making stops to see who they could arrest.