Having been away from France for 8 years and really wanting to come back to eure et loir I have two rather important concerns bugging me and holding me back. Going back to what has become a medical desert - and at the age of 70 I naturally want to reinstall myself in the health system but how do you do that with a dearth of GPS? I suppose I would have to wait 3 months before even trying?
Second question had ‘Expats move to France’ FB page refusing to print this next question. I feel it is a valid concern but hope this group won’t block this really important question. Is there ever going to be an OK time to move to France with all this talk of war? I might survive but my house or the banking system might not and then I will be stranded with absolutely nothing. I don’t want to catastrophise, this is just a pragmatic question. What do the rest of you think? Stay in NZ where I never fitted back in, bored and lonely or go where my heart is though my head is saying ‘ hang on..’?
We have postponed our plans to move to France in the new year for just this reason: the security of the EU and NATO is simply too uncertain over the next few years. In addition to that, the continental rise of the right wing has not made us certain that we will still be welcome as immigrants in the coming years.
So we are taking a wait and see attitude for the next three years to see how things develop. Better to be safe than sorry. And at 72, we do not have more than one big move left in us, so we want to be sure. Instead we will just continue to slow travel in Asia with a base in Vietnam. As an EU citizen, settling in Europe will always be an option for us.
I don’t see why your question would be banned, seems to me to be quite a legitimate one to ask. There probably isn’t a right or wrong answer, as it all comes down to how you perceive and manage risk in your life. None of us know what is actually going to happen, some might be more optimistic than others, some might just put it out of their heads completely, others might put in place a mitigation strategy.
If you feel the risk is too great, don’t come. If, on the other hand, you’ve reached a stage in life where these concerns don’t matter to you any more, seize the day and make the move.
Great question. Out of interest I turned to the “traditional” 21st century source of reassurance namely an AI bot. How would it try to reassure you?
“Russia has never invaded France or most of Western Europe in modern history, and the risk of such a war remains extremely low. France is a NATO member with strong defense alliances and no direct border with Russia.
Why France Remains a Safe Destination
- No history of Russian invasions of France: Russia has never invaded France or most of Western Europe. Its military actions have historically focused on Eastern Europe and its immediate neighbors, such as Ukraine, Georgia, and the Baltic states.
- France is a NATO member: France is part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a collective defense alliance. An attack on one NATO country is considered an attack on all, making direct military aggression against France highly unlikely.
- Geographic distance and buffer: France is over 2,000 km from Russia, with multiple countries in between. There is no shared border, and any hypothetical military action would have to cross several NATO countries—an extremely escalatory and improbable scenario.
- Historical context: In the last 300 years, Russia has only projected military force westward during:
Napoleon’s retreat from Russia (1812) – a defensive counter-invasion.
World War II (1945) – Soviet troops entered Eastern Germany to defeat Nazi Germany, not to occupy Western Europe.
Cold War – influence was limited to Eastern Bloc countries; Western Europe remained sovereign and uninvaded.
- Current threat assessments: While tensions exist due to the war in Ukraine, no credible military analysts foresee a Russian invasion of Western Europe. The focus remains on Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics.
Moving to France is a major life decision, but fear of war with Russia should not be a deciding factor”
The danger is not physical invasion of main Europe, that would be restricted to the Baltics. The concern is the EU and NATO going onto a war footing to defend the Alliance. The budgetary pressures that a wartime economy would put on the healthcare systems, the education systems, infrastructure spending would be crippling. Funding for non-essentials such as the arts, historic preservation, parks and recreation facilities would be severe. The internal security need to prevent or at least minimize Russian sabotage of war manufactures and critical infrastructure would make the freedom of movement of today impossible.
Essentially, what makes life in France and elsewhere in Europe so appealing would be severely curtailed, if not eliminated entirely.
Only you can answer the question of whether to move. It’s far too complicated a decision.
The fear of what is happening /will happen in Europe is quite a non-British Anglophone thing. When we moved last year, to have made that part of the calculation would have been laughable.
Cynical me is saying really??
If parts of the world are going to throw missiles and nukes around I am not sure there is anywhere ‘safe’, get on with your life and enjoy what remains of it.
My advice would be don’t ruin today by worrying about tomorrow.
What you should be worrying about is one of the things you mentioned, medical deserts. Eure et Loire is lovely - I have a soft spot for Bernay - but if you can’t find a doctor, then maybe it’s not the place for you.
We were fortunate to find our MT relatively quickly. A friend, whose MT has just retired, was told that the doctor will be replaced but it may take a few months.
You will need to cover yourself for medical treatment for the first year anyway. Just don’t move somewhere you know has a significant and long-standing problem, I’d say.
Missiles and Nukes? Well, where you are now would be no safer what with N.Korea, Japan, China and Australia closer to you than France. Who would want to survive anyway if the whole thing went up? No one I know either here, US or UK is worried about war on the backs of here today, gone tomorrow politicians so get on and enjoy what’s left of your natural life and not make yourself ill or trapped by such thoughts. Not like any of us can do much anyway except protest locally. As for medical affairs, maybe choose another area altogether, might be an eye-opener in the long run.
I’m with the folks who say “don’t worry about Russia” - if they haven’t managed to conquer little Ukraine in three years there is zero chance of them overrunning Poland, Germany, and France to get to the Loire Valley.
As for nukes, if those go off the game is up for all of us. Again, very unlikely as Russia would disappear in a mushroom-shaped cloud of smoke as well, which is of no benefit to Putin.
I take @Alzero’s point about a large-scale war (if it did break out) having an effect on the economy, but again I just don’t see Russia having the capability to stage a large-scale invasion of Europe. They can only just sustain what they are doing now, and the Russian economy is creaking.
The question of local healthcare is much more relevant, and all you can do with that is research it as much as possible so as to find an area where you would like to live where there is an MT within reasonable distance.
My plan to move to France is still ongoing - what may change it is if my new partner decides she doesn’t want to permanently leave the UK, not what Putin gets up to.
I think we worry too much about what politicians say - a lot of it is just hot air.
But of course it is all a personal decision in the end.
The French ones will have been maintained and will work.
Based on the operation readiness of the Russian military in recent years, I’d be surprised if any others even make it out of the silos.
Of course, Russia won’t use a WMD of any sort as NATO would totally obliterate Russia’s entire civilian and military leadership using conventional weapons.
Additionally, Poland is a spicy European Texas these days and has at least a century’s worth of grudges to settle with Moscow, so approaching Poland’s eastern or northern borders would not be a fun time for the Russians ordered to do so.
I’m a generation that has never experienced war first hand, but my family generation above me are refugees from Germany & 2nd world war. And I live in an area of France that is full of war history - the older villagers (who have since died off) showed us a cave high on the cliff where the whole village took refuge when the Germans came through when retreating. The next village was burnt, and many shot.
So war is something scary, but I have never felt immediately vulnerable here. And nukes, well if they do go off the whole world will be affected.
The healthcare issue is more of an immediate threat. Where did that figure of 87% come from as that seems unreal! We are moving at the moment, and spent quite a bit of time researching where might be an oasis in the dessert. So will be 20 ambulances minutes from a large CHU and a city with all the specialists, but still out in the sticks with a 10 minutes walk to a town which had doctors and dentists. The medical dessert issue is very fine grained.
Only you can decide whether this is worth it for you. But I certainly have never thought of moving to NZ to be ‘safe’.
namely an AI bot. How would it try to reassure you?
Why France Remains a Safe Destination