Can I introduce SF members to what I think is a fascinating website, Polymarket, especially for its political predictions..
Some of you may already be familiar with it. Although it’s obviously a betting site, for me what is much more interesting is the fact that, due to crowd sourcing, you can instantly see what (possibly) thousands of people globally think will actually happen, as they’re putting real money where their mouth is. The site accurately predicted the outcome of the last US Presidential Election, when polls suggested ithe race was too close to call. Some of you may recall that immediately prior to the recent seizure of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, somebody bet and won $436,000 that Maduro would be ousted the following day.
For example here are 4 scenarios that may be of interest to the (politically) curious:-
1. Who will win the House of Representatives in the US midterms (answer - the Democrats, according to Polymarket gamblers -82% chance)
2. Who will win the French Presidential election (Bardella - 29% chance)
3.Will Keir Starmer be out this year (yes - 65% chance)
4.Who will be the Democratic nominee in 2028 (Newsom - 28% chance)
There are numerous other scenarios eg will the Iranian regime fall this year (33%), will Marine Le Pen win her appeal against conviction and bar on running in future elections (23%) etc
I definitely wouldn’t want to encourage anyone to actually bet, that isn’t the purpose of this post. I also understand that the site is technically illegal in France, albeit the only sanctions ever likely to arise are for the site operators.
