See article in FT today, the UK needs to get going on negotiating this hurdle pdq
Oh, effing great!
I’d forgotten that one - briefly flitted through my mind earlier in the year, just after the travel ban was announced and then I forgot about it as a) we were in transition and b) when we did think we might have travelled there was a UK lockdown anyway.
Chatting to my mum yesterday. She said that the penalty for over-staying the maximum permitted period in the EU is a ban on entering the EU for a year. I didn’t know that.
Whilst I realise that this difficulty will be inconvenient for many people, surely one has to accept that cross border travel and controlling Covid 19 are two things that do not sit well together.
The more that people remain in their own local areas, then the easier it is to keep this virus under control. Whether we can travel or not, what we should all do is stay at home.
The more we can suppress the virus, then the more health service staff can be diverted to the vaccination program, and the quicker this whole thing will be over.
Up to a point…, yes, sort-of
Travel between areas with a similar prevalence of Covid (say, the UK and most of the EU) will not increase risk all that much in either territory - not above travel within each territory.
The risk is only increased (for the territory with lower prevalence) when there is a marked disparity. It might be logical for the EU to allow travel from New Zealand - it is not logical for NZ to allow travel in the reverse direction (or, if allowed, it would be logical to apply heavy quarantine requirements).
I expect a complete UK-EU travel ban will focus minds sharply - lots of people have skiing holidays booked, I imagine.
Though, based on the fury on display re: Schengen rules, expect it to be all about the EU punishing us.
Quite how one gets the message across that we are punishing ourselves I am not sure.
Just one of the unintended consequences which flow from Brexit.
I am sure that there will be many more and folks who have voted Leave will be ruing the day.
I don’t know - a lot of Leavers inhabit a strange parallel universe where either they still think there will be massive gains and those who do inhabit the real universe are happy just to have “stuck one to remainers” and don’t care if the country goes to the dogs as long as everyone suffers.
Of course the sufferers will be the ordinary rank and file, not the architects of the mess insulated by rank, privilege and wealth.
What worries me most is that there will be a concerted effort to blame the EU for the mess and it will largely stick with those who voted Leave and still think it is a good idea - although the polls suggest a majority now think leaving was the wrong thing to do the margin is paper thin.
Personally I think its the correct decision and should also apply to countries within Europe with high % per 100,000 - Schengen does not make you immune !
I wonder if the LibDems will have the courage to declare an application to rejoin at the next election. If they do I will rejoin.
Could be a massive vote winner, or the final nail in the Libdem coffin.
The red wall in the North is already crumbling. It could very well be that hardships caused by Brexit could be the final nail in the right wing Tories.
It all depends upon the stance of Labour. Keir Starmer would have to declare really for or really against, not the wishy washy stance taken by Corbyn.
I wonder if the EU would want us back so quickly after we have wasted so much time on this subject?
The EU would have us back I suspect - but I doubt there would be much willingness to reinstate any of our old opt-outs.
That had always been stated as the case but my suspicion was (had we not pissed in the well) that we’d have been able to wangle a few of the old concessions, maybe even avoided going into the €
Not any longer, I think it would have to be full-on Schengen, euro, the whole nine yards.
And, even if Brexit is as bad as many suspect it will be in January I’m not sure that there’s really the appetite for that in the UK (certainly not amongst the current crop of Tories).
As Paul said they probably would, although my first reaction was ‘no bloody way’!
Let us just look forward not back.
This after Brexit Brit feels better looking past Brexit.
I was not looking forward to next year, but the next election with the hope that the Tory government doesn’t collapse that soon.
Labour will never be able to field a solid return contingent, but it is the whole LibDem’s raison d’etre. The best chance for them in a generation.
Not sure if there are many Brexit voters from Middlesbrough or Mansfield who go skiing so it won’t affect them, but if it upsets a trip to drink english beer and fish n’chips in Torremolinos then they will be up in arms.
They will be absolutely no appetite in UK or EU to even think about re entry…for at least 25 years at a minimum and by then both parties will be greatly changed. EU is fed up with Uk and begrudes time it has had to spend on it and UK would see it as a failure to deliver on ERG’s vision of an independent island state trying to recreate/live on past glories,
Now that is patronising. I don’t agree with Brexit voters, but they are generally people just like any others (apart from being easily taken in by lies). And Middlesborough and Mansfield have the usual mix of people - skiers and sunbathers.
I don’t think it would necessarily take 25 years but it does depends on how Brexit pans out and on an honest appraisal of that.
No one really knows how things are going to go - personally I think there will be a short term hit as we adjust - that could be anywhere from mild to food riots, there will then be a “slow rot” where we perform less well than we would have done but there is still growth - this will make it hard to see the impact of Brexit, it will be even harder for people in relatively deprived areas to actually enumerate whether they are more or less well off. Goods we used to import from the EU will get a bit scarcer and noticeably more expensive.
Which is why an honest appraisal will be needed - but only actual performance will be directly measurable - performance had we not left will only ever be an estimate, therefore open to debate.
Do I believe the government is capable of an honest assessment - no, not for a minute.
Well, Penny Mordaunt (for Gove) refused to even consider the concept of an economic assessment of the impact of the various Brexit scenarios, so it’s not even about trust - it simply won’t happen.
Russell Brand wrote a surprisingly (ouch!) cogent opinion published in the NYT last week that I think sums up some of the issues quite well. Essentially, most of the Brexit debate has been about the impact on skiiing or the price of claret, when we should all be more concerned about the standard of living of the majority of working people, not just the lucky few who a can afford those things.
Even more concisely, the neoliberal leftists have betrayed working people, and their biteback is not so easily undone.
The Tory Party will never countenance a review of the impact of Brexit as it’s their pet project and Labour will not do so either lest they are seen as closet remain party,
What will be the political earthquake will be Scotland voting to split from the UK probably in spring 2022 which now must be more than 50%.
That will profoundly rock England and the Tory Party will pay price and fall apart but not sure who would replace them. This might then lead to a new or rump Tory Party being able to start floating the idea of England crawling back to Brussels with an economy in tatters after Covid costs and tariff walls
Nobody can say what going to happen other than in five years time the “sovereign coastal state” (latest Brexit Tory buzzword) will be a very different place to live in…thank goodness we moved to lovely Brittany 18 months ago