That was only true initially - we have much greater access to testing now so it is unlikely we’re missing the huge numbers that we were last Feb/March/April. Indeed much has been made of the “false positive” rate suggesting that we are over-identifying cases. Unfortunately there’s a lot of discussion my people who understand neither epidemiology or statistics (I should probably include myself in that category).
The bottom line, however, is that vaccination works. If you look at the figures from the current hotspots of B.1.617.2 it is mainly under 40’s that are affected, i.e precisely the unvaccinated group that previously was less affected by Covid.
PS you are right, of course, that my figures are not too reliable but mainly because the incidence and mortality do vary a lot by age. Once or twice I have started to sit down and hunt out some data to go through this and vaccine safety in more detail but each time have discovered that I don’t have the spare week that it would need - and having done it things are moving so fast it would be invalid almost as soon as I’d finished.
But we’re swinging round to discussions we had 12 months ago - for a 40 year old to say “I’ve only a 0.5% chance of dying, even if I get Covid” might be true but it ignores the fact that they can pass it on to elderly and vulnerable people who then swamp the NHS as they become extremely ill - and we’re seeing a lot of 40 year olds denied other NHS treatment as the priority turns to Covid so it has a real knock-on even for that age group.
Very interesting link Helen - as I asked about @vero 's school pupils at the start of this thread: are we sure they don’t understand the statistics?
Or perhaps more to the point: are we sure we do understand them?
I’ve had similar conversations with students (early 20s) and they seem quite sceptical in general for the same reasons you quote. TBH I sympathise - they have a low risk from developing a severe form of the disease and the vaccine is an unknown in the long term.
There have been plenty of medical scandals over the years due to lack of information or just straight-forward state / manufacturer cover-ups (contaminated blood scandal in France, Thalidomide, Servier / Benfluorex etc).
As for protecting the old - well, it’s the older generation who are hanging on to all the assets in a world where it’s more and more difficult to earn your way to home ownership and the older generation are enjoying their long retirement / generous pensions while the young are looking straight down the barrel of the gig economy as retirement is pushed further and further back…
I think I’d feel the same if I were their age.
As it is, I’m due my first dose of Pfizer tomorrow morning…
Of course not…prioritising the old for vaccines seems the only way to go, there’s little to discuss there.
But the young have already made a huge sacrifice for their elders over the last year…it would be interesting to see how older, wealthier generations would react to, say, targeted taxation to help cover the costs incurred by the young…
Yes but the 20 year old has far more ahead - even a healthy 60 year old is a bit old and useless relatively and certainly isn’t going to become more lively or fit or healthy over time. Maybe everyone old or unhealthy should just be left to take their chance. Swift and his modest proposal spring to mind.
I do so agree with you Martin - and as you also said they have been suffering for a much lomger period (especially in the UK) because of the movement of capital from entrepreneurialism into assets (described by Piketty) - and I would add they will also have lives seriously disrupted by climate/ecological breakdown (of which the current pandemic is just one symptom).
I love the young folk…they don’t always speak with one voice and approach the problems of “their time” from differing angles but I find them really clued up and many like 2 of mine don’t even go on face book as they’ve seen through it…
I’m probably in the same situation as some here being mid 50s with 3 adult children and 5 grandchildren 12 and under and a 6th grandbaby on the way…
How do people feel about a 12 year old being able to consent to a SARS cov 2 injection in a school setting without parental consent…subject to peer pressure and maybe an ice cream…???
I think I may have felt less inclined to draw a line in the sand if it hadn’t of been for the blatant censorship (not here) and suppression of any questioning voice…suppression of other medical practitioners viewpoints…suppression of treatment protocols…the blanket closing down of face book groups that sprung up discussing side effects and closing down women’s groups discussing menstrual side effects and prolonged bleeding and post menopausal women bleeding again…and I’m surprised at how many pro-vaccination medical practitioners have become some of the loudest voices speaking out…
Plus the more people the virus succeeds in infecting the greater the chance of variants. We won’t avoid this but we should at least try to slow it by reducing the spread of infection .
FWIW I am anti-vaxx and I have just had my first, purely because of what you’re saying @anon88169868 we have to let people with other conditions get access to the treatment they need. And I would never forgive myself if I infected someone more vulnera ble - I like someone very much here and have avoided spending time with them I would really have liked to spend with them because they are more vulnerable then me and I simply couldn’t live with myself if I took the slightest risk of being a transmitter.
Having said that vaccinated people can still transmit but I gather it’s much much less.
However despite the above I thi nk @Helen6 is entitled to her views and I acknowledge the risks she is mentioning.
I did some back-of-an-envelope stuff a while back, but it was obvious there were still a lot of unknowns (such as the numbers of unreported cases) and that new research was coming out all the time - but that the case for vaccinating healthy young people for their own protection was thin, to say the least.
There is of course a case in terms of protecting older and more vulnerable people, but then you are straight into difficult ethical territory, including the very different issues around their free choice, encouraging a choice that’s good for you but maybe not for them, or indeed applying pressure or coercion (as in discussions in the UK now around forcing carers to get vaccinated).
Are you? The ethical argument does not seem much different from Rubella which is primarily around safety for the unborn foetus rather than benefit to the vaccinated or giving boys HPV vaccine to protect their sexual partners from cervical cancer (although some benefit is provided to the vaccinated in that case as it also reduces the chance of penile cancer).
Even if mortality is low in the under 50’s there is still the chance of protracted illness (up to 10% “long covid”) so there remains benefit for the individual.
It appears that you have the same view as Helen but have taken the socially responsible attitude which is to be admired.
I would not like to have Covid, Long Covid or be responsible for passing on this dreadful disease .
We are seeing cases of anti-vaxxers in the USA who put forward their views in the most extreme terms coming down with this and being hospitalised.
Covid doesn’t discriminate between those who are for or against vaccination.
