The Ukraine situation, where will it end?

No, it was a Russian Buk missile fired from the Donbas I think.

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But Russia supplied arms to the Ukrainian Donbas separatists.
It’s a case of ‘one man’s freedom-fighter is another man’s terrorist’.

I believe it was actually Russians soldiers that transported the Buk missile over the border and Russians fighting in Ukraine who fired the missile.

Yes - some believe that, others tell a different story. Western Ukrainians and the western media propagated the idea that the fight for independence in eastern Ukraine was entirely down to the Kremlin - and they often deliberately conflated the two meanings of ‘Russian’ (the Russian state and the ethnic Russians that in many areas in the Donbas are the majority population).
Who to believe? - as I said, it’s a case of ‘one man’s freedom-fighter is another man’s terrorist’.

For everything like this, there are always conflicting views. It depends which you think is most likely. Russia has always denied any involvement, but do you think that’s true ?

No - Russia was certainly involved arming and financing and supporting the separatists, and there were certainly some Russian army people on Ukraine soil (rather in the way the US or even sometimes the UK military are ‘advisers’ or ‘trainers’ in foreign conflicts). But I do believe there was - is - a real social fracture between western and eastern (Russian speaking) Ukrainians, and an indigenous independence movement that would have led to civil conflict even had it not had Russian state support.

I was responding to @KarenLot suggesting that Ukrainians shot down MH17. You’ve expanded the discussion hugely now. And you didn’t answer my question

The Ukrainians staying with us are Russian speaking ( ethnic Russian s) from the Donbas region. They are of the opinion that the separatist controlled region was a front for Russian occupation and they and most people they knew wanted none of it.

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Which question? Yes in general terms Russia was ‘involved’ in the civil war, and obviously 'involved with the missile in some way - it was a Russian missile! But who knows where the central responsibility really lay? My point is the old one: ‘truth is the first casualty of war’.

I am cognisant of the fact that it is just as much in the interests of Western media to depict the Russians as weak as it is for the Russian media to show the West as corrupt and decadent but recent gains for the Ukrainians are massive

The answer to the question “The Ukraine situation, where will it end?” appears to be with defeat for the Russians - at least so long as they stick to conventional warfare (TBH I suspect that throwing nukes around would not end well for the Russians either but the wider impact, potentially for us all, could be much greater).

There are nukes with a more local impact as well though, which are the ones more likely to be used by a desperate Putin and which would not incur a widespead conflagration.

Yes, most of the talk is of possible use of “battlefield” or “tactical” nukes.

Do not forget these typically have 5-20x the yield of the bombs that were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki - they are not inconsequential weapons.

Really? They would have to be at a fair distance then, not to obliterate your own forces as well though.

And the genie would be out of the bottle, never to return, and it would likely escalate to the big boys😬

I think (well, hope) that is why not even Putin is mad enough to use them.

It’s something like “severe damage” up to 10km from the blast centre for a 100kiloton warhead.

My hope now is that Ukraine can get itself into a stronger negotiating position, and both sides will settle for the status quo in the Crimea and some kind of independence in the Donbas. I really don’t think it would be in the interests of either side - or ours - to hold on to the idea of total ‘victory’ or ‘defeat’ (and generally, in history, both of these extremes have turned out to be illusory anyway).

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Nah, only someone who didn’t care about the consequent retaliatory strikes on their nation is going to fire the first nuclear WMD, even if it’s a very small one such as a nuclear artillery shell.

No one who is sane would stark chucking nuclear weapons about - as you say.

I’m just not totally sure Putin is sane.

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Having gained the advantage Ukraine might decide to clear all the Russians from its terrain.

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I’d like to hope that there’s at least one of his senior staff that would bring out Comrade Makarov if Vlad starts reaching for the red button.

Not sure what checks and balances exist in the Russian nuclear launch protocols.

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