UK by-elections 2023

[billybutcher]

So, Labour win in Selby, Lib Dems in Somerton&Frome and the Tories hang on by the skin of their teeth in Uxbridge.

Celebrations all round, a rout for the Tories, they’ll be gone at the next election.

Well, yes, but not so fast amigo!

Turnout, as is typical for UK by elections, was abysmal - less than 50% in all three which is dire. In the two that the Tories lost the vote share of the winner stayed mostly static bar for a bit of tactical voting where as the Tory vote collapsed by pretty much the same number as the reduction in turnout.

I think this is somewhat worrying for Labour & the Lib Dems, it suggests that Tory voters could not be bothered to go and vote, and are not (yet, perhaps) changing allegiance - this might extend to the general election given dissatisfaction with the Tories but it’s hard to see that either party will pull off the same trick in 2029, especially when the nation has spent another 5 years floundering under Labour - which is very likely as they seem to be aligning themselves to Tory policies which have provably failed and ruled out many of the ideas that might begin to reverse the damage.

The picture in Uxbridge is, if anything, a bit better for Labour - there it is not just a case of Tory voters staying home, allowing for the reduction in turnout there has been a definite shift to Labour, there’s not so much room for tactical voting anyway as not really anyone else in the race in the constituency (Lawrence Fox might be crowing about beating the Lib Dems but both lost their deposits).

Ironically the Tories held on by campaigning on the ULEZ, blaming Labour’s Sadiq Khan for the expansion, when it was Johnson’s dea and the expansion was forced on Khan by Shapps. Labour don’t seem to have go this message through, or the fact that most vehicles are not affected which is a bit of a worry about their campaigning abilities.

The next election is Labour’s to lose, what happens after that is where the fun starts.

[John_Scully]

I guess the issue is that Labour has no policies and a leader with a wooden charisma. Their whole message is the Tories are a busted flush (true) so vote for us. Not very encouraging.

I should add that I’ve come to despise the far too ebullient lying Sunak as much as his two lying predecessors. He needs a smack in his ever so earnest chops

[Stella]

Oh how I do wish there was someone… anyone… who inspired confidence… who came over as honest and straight forward…
I don’t care which Party nowadays… just want someone who will “do the job properly”

[billybutcher]

@John_Scully

I guess the issue is that Labour has no policies and a leader with a wooden charisma. Their whole message is the Tories are a busted flush (true) so vote for us. Not very encouraging.

It’s a bit more subtle than that. Starmer’s “lack of charisma” is maybe no bad thing when you consider where promoting the “charismatic” Johnson to high office got us, and Labour seems to want to occupy not just the centre left but the centre and centre right at the moment as something of a vacuum has been left by the Tory’s swing to hard right - which means that the policies have to be chosen so as not to alarm those moderate voters who are put off by the current madhouse that is the Conservative&Union party.

However, I agree, although I can understand why Starmer might be offering “Tory policy with a steady, competent and honest hand” the result is underwhelming when you can see that is doomed to failure, and positively disappointing when you can see that he is tying Labour’s hands policy wise in a manner which means it will be very hard fro them to switch to policies which might actually work.

[Gareth]

Jon Sopel made a point about how the result in Uxbridge, which everyone agrees was down to the very local issue of ULEZ, could have much wider repercussions nationally (even globally).

He suggests Labour underestimated just how strongly people felt about ULEZ and therefore hadn’t prepared a counterargument. He believes that they’ll now be less ambitious about future environmental proposals going forward as a result of the Uxbridge outcome. That would be a shame… Admittedly I don’t know much about ULEZ but I think it’s how it was implemented that was the issue, not the fact that air quality in big cities is killing people and needs improving.

[Gareth]

An interesting article… Apparently the Conservative candidate was quiet about which party he stood for, preferring to be known as the “anti-ULEZ” candidate. I mean his affiliation would’ve been on the voting paper but by the time people got to the booth I guess they’d already made up their mind who would get their vote so may not have paid attention.

The Tories’ lesson from Uxbridge: pretend not to be Tories

[SuePJ]

@Gareth

the “anti-ULEZ” candidate.

Oh Lord, here we are again - candidates standing on a single issue - Brexit anyone?

[billybutcher]

As I said, it looks like Labour campaigning on this issue failed, for one thing it should have been relatively easy to pin the blame on Johnson & Shapps, for another it will affect relatively few vehicles and for a third it will improve air quality.

[billybutcher]

@Gareth

An interesting article… Apparently the Conservative candidate was quiet about which party he stood for, preferring to be known as the “anti-ULEZ” candidate.

Goes with many claiming to be the “Local Conservative” and dissociating themselves from the Westminster party as much as possible, or not including any affiliation on their flyers.

You could argue it both ways of course - the British political system elects local representatives and (perhaps, in theory) party allegiance should be secondary.

That said knowing who you are voting for is surely basic due dilligance.

[JohnH]

@billybutcher

However, I agree, although I can understand why Starmer might be offering “Tory policy with a steady, competent and honest hand” the result is underwhelming when you can see that is doomed to failure, and positively disappointing when you can see that he is tying Labour’s hands policy wise in a manner which means it will be very hard fro them to switch to policies which might actually work.

While I agree on the face of it, I can see why he wouldn’t want to expose much firm policy this far from an election, for a couple of reasons. One being that the predominantly Tory-supporting press will misrepresent it and secondly the Tories will take anything that appears to have popular support.
The reality is that, if he gets anywhere near the majority that some are forecasting, he’ll be able to do what he likes (much like Johnson with his squandered 80 seat majority) and we can’t say that he doesn’t have form for revising the positions that he took to win elections.

[Fleur]

Ah, Brexit. I just read Michelle Goldberg in the NYT…

"There’s a growing understanding in Britain that the country’s vote to quit the European Union, a decisive moment in the international rise of reactionary populism, was a grave error.

Just as critics predicted, Brexit has led to inflation, labor shortages, business closures and travel snafus. It has created supply chain problems that put the future of British car manufacturing in danger. Brexit has, in many cases, turned travel between Europe and the U.K. into a punishing ordeal, as I learned recently, spending hours in a chaotic passport control line when taking the train from Paris to London. British musicians are finding it hard to tour in Europe because of the costs and red tape associated with moving both people and equipment across borders, which Elton John called “crucifying.”

According to the U.K.’s Office for Budget and Responsibility, leaving the E.U. has shaved 4 percent off Britain’s gross domestic product. The damage to Britain’s economy, the O.B.R.’s chairman has said, is of the same “magnitude” as that from the Covid pandemic."

[Gareth]

@billybutcher

the British political system elects local representatives and (perhaps, in theory) party allegiance should be secondary.

Yes I feel a tiny bit bad that my Tory MP has previously intervened successfully on my behalf in the past yet I’ll never vote for him because I don’t like his party’s political views… Made all the worse when I was still living in the UK as his mother was my nextdoor neighbour!

[IzzyM]

@Fleur

snafus

Had to look that up. Going to use it now.

[David_Spardo]

I think you might find it rude.

[Fleur]

‘All fouled up’ is the polite version…

[strudball]

You have a low opnion of Starmer, all Tories are liars…are there any politicians you have half a good word for?

[billybutcher]

@strudball

You have a low opnion of Starmer, all Tories are liars…are there any politicians you have half a good word for?

To be fair it is difficult to get enthusiastic about any of them at the moment. The Tories *are* liars, indeed that is often their least obnoxious quality and Starmer *is* bland and is largley offering more of the same tired, failed policy.

@JohnH

The reality is that, if he gets anywhere near the majority that some are forecasting, he’ll be able to do what he likes (much like Johnson with his squandered 80 seat majority) and we can’t say that he doesn’t have form for revising the positions that he took to win elections.

TBH I’m sick and tired of politicians who lie to get elected into office

Certainly Starmer has the problem that 12-18 months is enormously long for Labour to maintain the momentum. As for the press - well, the UK press has a RW bias and will tend to attack Labour. If he is going to be successful he needs to figure out how to turn that to his advantage (or at least how to nullify it).

[Gareth]

@billybutcher

As for the press - well, the UK press has a RW bias and will tend to attack Labour. If he is going to be successful he needs to figure out how to turn that to his advantage (or at least how to nullify it).

I agree, and I hope Starmer doesn’t pander to the press unlike Blair did in '97… but I’ll also add that the press is becoming less and less relevant for the younger generation so hopefully the influence of Murdoch, the Barclay brothers and Lord Rothermere is diminishing.

I know this chart is for subscribers not readers but it shows the demography is majorly old males.

Edit: actually this chart is perhaps even more relevant…

[John_Scully]

@strudball

are there any politicians you have half a good word for?

To be frank Struders, in the UK today probably not. The education secretary sounded quite sensible on the radio last week, but if I investigate she’ll probably turn out to have feet if clay too. I thought Nicola Sturgeon was honest and look what’s happening there. I thought Blair was a good guy, how wrong was I? Anybody with any integrity in Tory party has been chucked out, for example Dominic Grieve. So I’m struggling with your question🙂

What ones do you think are OK? But before answering is there anybody in the cabinet or Labour’s front bench that you’d actually employ?

[JohnH]

Wes Streeting, Peter Kyle, Annelise Dodds on the Labour side. Until quite recently, Alex Chalk on the Tories but he seems to have lost the plot a little. Stephen Flynn of the SNP.
It’s quite sad that the list is so short.