I find it a bit suspicious that the numbers published seem to be conveniently below the (psychologically important) 1000/day level when the ramp-up of new cases suggested it should be higher.
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Anyone else finding the daily briefings from No.10 cringeworthy?
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I just started watching it, had to go out to puke up when that wally Handcock said he was proud about doing something
I’ve changed channels today as it’s Matt Hancock,the only one worth anything is Rishi Sunak
Yes, they are. I find myself having to turn away from the TV screen when Hancock rolls out those Orwellian statistics about the number of hairpins that have been rolled out to reach the tangled-hair masses: "eleven million four hundred and twenty five thousand seven hundred and eighteen individual hairpins have been distributed to bedraggled carers whose only mission is to care for those in need, an astonishing effort having been made by our incredible world-leading wire-benders working round the clock. It makes me weep to see dead children being buried with untidy locks, their parents unable to get close enough to wield a grieving comb… But nevertheless that is a record breaking feat, a net increase in hair-pin production of 16.5%…“
“I am now proud to announce an initiative derived from the master plan set clearly out by our wise, courageous and invincible Leader, colleague and friend Boris Johnson, which we are following meticulously in every detail, that is the issue of an enamelled NHS Hero lapel badge, to be issued to every front line health and social care, as token of our admiration and respect. It will be required of all of us to clap (at the prescribed distance of 6ft) every badge wearer we meet for as long as it takes to sing Happy Birthday twice. Those infringing this recommendation will be tasered. Have you got anything you’d like to add, professor? "
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The ONS have just published the figures for March. The total number of deaths was below the 5 year average. Deaths certified as COVID-19 were 7% of total.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020#covid-19-and-the-overall-mortality-rate-for-march
Worth bearing in mind of course that recorded covid19 mortality up to and including 31 March was 1 789, and as of 15 April is was 12 868. So April’s figures could be a tad different.
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Worth also bearing in mind that knowing the mortality figures for March were below average tells you didly squat without an idea of the normal variance - they are never the same and by definition 50% of figures will be “below average” (strictly below the median but mean and median are equal for normally distributed data).
Also, that old chestnut about death rates falling when doctors go on strike is true and applies here - there are other factors at play.
That makes it sound as though there has been some good fortune in the timing of COVID-19. Think how much more pressure would have been placed on the NHS if it had occurred during a year when deaths were above average. Thank God for small mercies.
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Oh dear - I had begun to wonder whether the UK death figures were meing tweaked - now there is evidence that doctors at at least one trust are being encouraged not to mention Covid and just put pneumonia on the death certificates.
If we add that to the fact that, apparently all cause deaths are massively up for the 1st week of April for some, inexplicable reason
One can only come to the conclusion that the government are playing fast and loose with the truth again.
Oh, and PS - about the fact that March seemed to be slightly below average……
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It would be good if the anti-Tory fox killer named the trust so this could be put to whoever’s taking the daily briefing today.
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And for them to hide behind the fact that it carefully falls short of telling doctors that they should not put Covid on the death cert?
Paul, are you accepting this as the gospel truth because it suits the ‘all Tories are lying bastards’ narrative?
I’m happy for any government to be exposed and that’s why it’s important to name and shame especially something like this, I tend to ignore dramatic headlines followed by ‘sources say’ as most of the time it’s either bollocks or a gross exaggeration.
I guess a possible explanation is that the pressure on services has led to neglect of other illnesses.
Although I still agree that all Tories are lying bastards… well, most of them anyway.
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Aren’t all Tories lying bastards?
There was a time, perhaps, where that was not so, and I hope there will be a time in the future where it is not so but at the moment they are not covering themselves in glory.
As to am I accepting of this narrative because it fits with the current government’s general mendacity - no.
However it does offer a possible explanation for the significant increase in “non-covid” deaths which is almost what you would not expect at the moment , as well as our apparent magical ability to cure more people of Covid when it is clear that it is still the case that only the most ill get as far as hospital.
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Agree - these could be March’s deaths now coming through because of reporting lag as everyone focusses on Covid - that would also explain the (possibly) anomalous low numbers for that month.
I actually think it will be quite some time before we know the true picture of whether Covid significantly increased deaths above expected - possible a year or more to get all the figures in and collated properly.
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Hurrrmph wait for the D-notice to be issued preventing any reporting of the actual figures for at least 30 and probably 50 years from now…
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I have just received this email from Jolyon Maughan at The Good Law Project:
This is concealment at the highest level and how can anyone plan for a change in our circumstances if the true picture is being deliberately concealed?
Dear Friend,
The Good Law Project has received leaked guidance from an NHS hospital trust that reveals doctors are being told they are not required to put COVID-19 on death certificates.
If doctors are being gently discouraged from reporting deaths as COVID-19, we have no way of knowing if the government figures on deaths from coronavirus - the daily in hospital figures as well as the weekly ONS figures - are accurate.
The Good Law Project has instructed lawyers to write to the NHS hospital trust today, asking them to clarify the guidance urgently. But so far we’ve only seen the guidance from one trust. We have no idea if hospital trusts up and down the country are issuing the same guidance.
For that reason, we’re calling on the Health Secretary Matt Hancock to take urgent action to ensure all suspected deaths from COVID-19 are recorded properly. Will you join us by adding your name to the petition?
You can read the guidance in full here.We have redacted the name and phone number of the author of the document who is a senior manager in an NHS Trust. If you have information about the way deaths from COVID-19 are being reported either in hospitals, care homes or in the community, please contact us in confidence at info@goodlawproject.org
Thank you,
Jolyon Maugham
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I’ve read the anonymous Trust guidance. It’s not sinister in the way that it has been interpreted. It only looks that way if you don’t really know how a death certificate is completed. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JLsJ_iM0cehRXF6f8KUu-FDDY4Pr37b5/view
This ONS guidance on how to complete a death certificate explains well how it should be done correctly.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf