I think it would be a pity if the UK was to break up (seems to be a growing trend that countries want "independence "these days) but I wonder what the reaction from Scotland and Wales would be if England decided it wanted independence 
I think Scotland would be delighted!
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“We keep hearing dark hints about an independent Scotland not being economically viable, but nobody seems willing to actually set out exactly why.”
Because they have not provided one - their last campaign relied solely on the price of oil - which collapsed soon after the no vote - what other asset can they exploit this time?
But John - it’s up to you to make the case for Scotland not being viable! It’s you that is suggesting this - a very odd suggestion, when every other comparable country in northern Europe - for example Ireland to the west, or Denmark to the east - is not only viable, but doing much better as an independent country than Scotland is within the UK - indeed they are doing better than the UK! What exactly is it that you think would stop Scotland emulating their success?
This is their 4th term in government and they increased their vote, how long do you think it will take for them to loose their gloss, 7-8 terms 
I wish folks would stop treating the electorate in Scotland as stupid, they have had decades of debate to come to a decision and by electing the SNP and Greens again they have made their choice, they want another referendum and Independence.
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I don’t understand your argument - if you wanted to move to France today you would have to provide proof of income- a lottery ticket would not suffice - as said before the SNP relied greatly on North Sea Oil revenues that collapsed shortly after the last independence vote so I am justified in asking where is the income coming from - is it being a very high tax regime like Denmark and Ireland - not a very strong selling point to the canny Scots. I also note that for obvious reasons you didn’t quote other small poor countries like Bulgaria and their like within the EC.
The argument is not for me to prove or disprove but it is the people of Scotland that will need to be convinced and when it comes to money in their pockets I believe that they will demand a balance sheet.
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A lot of your arguments seem speculative, unsubstantiated or simply out of date.
I doubt that the Scots would see themselves in a similar situation to Bulgaria, instead they cite the examples of the small Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which have all flourished since joining the EU - Ever been to any of them?
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It would, but I’ve not seen anything to indicate it’s likely.
Not any more…lots of “working class” supporters in the NE and NW…how Johnson will square the circle of them and the wealthy home counties will be interesting to watch
I would politely say politely say…in your dreams…an independent Scotland is the DNA of the SNP!
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I think the real game changer will be if there is a mood swing in England as is possible of people saying just let them get on with ir.
In fact I’m not sure that there is as much commitment to the Union as Johnson 5hinks there is. English nationalism could well become much more popular and Johnson would, as is his way, quietly embrace that particulary if it meant Tory becoming electorally dominant.
Yes, many frustrated and neglected folk in the North have voted for them, but they’ll get nothing in return.
The Tories are a SE party. The SE has looked after itself for a thousand years. There was the slight blip of the industrial revolution that gave them up North a look in, but that’s all over now.
And do you know what that balance sheet might be John? I know NI isn’t viable because Westminster sends them £4B annually, but what’s the situation in Scotland?
I’m just trying to find out why you think Scotland would not be economically viable as an independent country. You - and others - have asserted this, but put forward no argument or evidence. I would be interested in discussing this, but see no coherent argument to engage with.
Personally, I don’t think the main argument for independence is economic at all - it’s about democracy and cultural and political differences and the European project - but I also think the economic arguments - that I’m aware of - are pro-independence. We obviously can’t get into too much detail in posts like this, but examples would be that Scotland wants and needs higher immigration - England rejects this; historically (pre 2008) Scotland has needed a different monetary strategy - and will never need interest rates that only really work for the City of London; etc…
But the over-arching economic argument is the one already outlined (which I think you’ve conceded by your odd attempt to liken Scotland to Bulgaria (I’ve worked in both, by the way - great places, but I’m struggling to see any economic similarity) and your equally odd statement that Scotland is a ‘small poor’ country. But you see it isn’t - there are lots of smaller countries in Europe alone that are doing very well thankyou. Indeed - smaller countries tend to do better, especially within the EU.
Scotland is also still comparatively rich - though not as rich as the countries in northern Europe that are really most similar to it - and this is I think the key economic argument for independence. You say this implies higher tax - but it doesn’t. You say Ireland, for example, has high tax levels, but in fact Ireland has lower than average personal and corporate taxation (Denmark slightly higher - but that’s the point, isn’t it? - Scotland will be able to choose the appropriate tax strategy for itself, not be stuck with one that only really works for London).
By the way I suspect behind your ideas on tax is the fiscal transfers argument - but this, like your oil revenues point, is out of date - now refuted as depending on counting tax where currently collected in the UK context, not where the wealth was actually generated. A simple example of this would be something like pension and other savings funds managed in the City of London - where the very highly paid fund managers and all their staff are taxed even though the funds actually belong to Scottish - or indeed Northern Irish people. You can’t just look at fiscal transfers without the whole real world context.
Also by the way, I and others dealt with the oil revenues issue earlier in the thread: a) the past revenues were wasted by the Thatcher government - an argument for independence - and b) Scotland is still energy-rich in the only terms that matter now - renewables - not an argument for independence, but certainly not one against.
What certainly is true is that independence implies changes, some of which might be difficult - but Tories can’t use this argument, can they? - having just argued that temporary economic disruption is a price well worth paying for ‘sovereignty’.
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Hello Geoff - I did explain why and I did not say that Scotland should compare themselves only with Bulgaria only that the SNP would prefer to cherry pick the countries that they wish their future to be compared with. I don’t want to even try to change your mind and you will not change mine .
I will make only one last observation that if removing borders between European countries is the EU utopia why is the creation of a border between Scotland and England such a good idea - especially to Scots who do not live in Scotland.
Well it worked in Ireland didn’t it ?
This would remove the borders between present-day Scotland and the rest of Europe, whereas the Westminster government only seems interested in building walls between itself and Continental Europe.
I fail to see the relevance of your mention of Scots who don’t live in Scotland. Presumably they would remain Scottish and be able to obtain Scottish residency or passports should they wish to return there to settle.
The three big questions are …what currency, the fiscal defecit, and economic border between a potential EU (or EEA) country and a freewheeling Singapore style economic system. The UK gov’ will deploy project fear…remember that…but hearts will rule heads, “take control” and Brexit déja-vu.
Because England won’t be in the EU and Scotland will, so the price for no border with 27 will be a border with one. Seems like a good deal. As a Franco-Scot it appeals to me.
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IMHO I think that sentiment will gradually change over the next 18 months in England as the mood will become one of let the Scots and Irish do what they want and good riddance. There will be a ground swell of “now we have unshackled from the EU we should dump them and England (and for the tone being Wales) could do better without them”.
I don’t support little Englanderism in anyway but don’t underestimate that this attitude might gain traction …unfortunately.